Posts Tagged ‘North Carolina’

We Should Be Proud of Miss California, and Perez Hilton Should Be Ashamed

April 22, 2009

gallery_photo1239121941swim_californiaAlright, I’m sure many of you have heard the recent controversies surrounding the recent Miss USA pageant and Miss California’s (Carrie Prejean) answer to a question on gay marriage.  Here’s a video of that question, asked by judge Perez Hilton (video courtesy of NBC):

Alright, now, that answer was criticized by many, including Perez Hilton.  Here’s the video that he posted later that night:

I have a few problems with Perez Hilton (other than the fact that he’s obnoxious and I can’t stand him):

  1. He complains that she wasn’t politically correct, and that Miss USA needs to be politically correct.  Well, I’m glad that Perez Hilton believes in being politically correct.  That must be why he called her “a dumb bitch,” and that must be why he went on MSNBC and say that he “was thinking the ‘c’-word, and I didn’t say it.”  Well, Perez, we’re glad that you’re defending political correctness, except when it comes to women.  Had she have called you a “fag,” you’d have been up in arms (and rightfully so).  Show her some respect even if you disagree with her.
  2. He said that she should have said, “I think that that is a question that each state should decide for themselves, because that’s how our forefathers designed our government.”  Well, that would’ve been a nice politically correct answer, but Perez’s question was, “Vermont recently became the 4th state to legalize same-sex marriage. Do you think every state should follow suit.  Why or why not?”  Saying that it should be up to the states to decide would not have been answering the question.

Perez has since come out and apologized, and then on MSNBC, he took back his apology (and indirectly called her “the ‘c’-word”).

Personally, I agree with Carrie Prejean.  I am glad that states have the right to decide; however, I personally think that marriage should be between a man and a woman.  She didn’t answer the question poorly, she just answered it honestly.  She said that she was glad that Americans have the option to choose, but when she goes to the voting booth, she’ll chose to not allow it.

Perez Hilton shouldn’t have even been a judge in my opinion.  His video saying that if she’d have won, he’d have run on stage and snatched the crown from her shows me that he shouldn’t be judging the contest.  If he can’t live with the result of the contest if it doesn’t go how he wants, he should not be a judge.

I’ll conclude this by saying that I think this may have cost Prejean the crown (Perez Hilton himself told ABC, “She lost it because of that question.  She was definitely the front-runner before that.”); however, she may have ended as runner up anyway, so congratulations to Miss North Carolina, Kristen Dalton.

Carrie, you’re a true American hero.  Thank you for standing up for what you believe in.  You’re an amazing icon to young women all over the country, and I respect you.  God bless you, and I wish you the best of luck in life.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican

1 Day to Go: Final Gubernatorial Elections Prediction

November 3, 2008

Alright, this will finish out my prediction series for today, following my Presidential and Senate election predictions. Again, the colors are switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it. The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here. On to the predictions…

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Democrats: 7 (+1)
Republicans: 4 (-1)
Light gray indicates states with no Gubernatorial races

So, some of the states where you may disagree with my prediction:

  • North Carolina: Pat McCroy (R) had looked like she was going to overtake Bev Perdue (D), but Perdue has begun to come back in the polls, and I think she’s going to be able to hang on and win, but I’m still not confident enough to put it in the “Strong” category.
  • Washington: I’m still fairly confident that Christine Gregoire (D) will keep her seat and beat out Dino Rossi (R), but I’m not confident to put it in the strong category.

Now, on to my map shsowing my confidence in my predictions:

Democrats: 7 (+1)
Republicans: 4 (-1)
Tossup: 0

Light gray indicates states with no Gubernatorial races

And here’s how my prediction changed:

State

Previous

Current

Reasoning

NC

D40T

D40L

I’m confident enough to take this out of the Toss-Up category.

Well, that’s my gubernatorial election prediciton!

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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1 Day to Go: Final Senate Prediction: Democrats Gain 7 Seats

November 3, 2008

Here’s my Senate prediction. I already did my Presidential election prediction as well as my gubernatorial elections prediction.  The colors ARE switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it.  The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here.  On to the predictions…

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Democrats: 19 (+7)
Republicans: 14 (-7)
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races

First, a note about Wyoming and Mississippi:

  • Wyoming has 2 races, Michael Enzi (R) against Chris Rothfuss (D) and John Barasso (R) against Nick Carter (D).  I expect both Republicans to win with results around 63%.
  • Mississippi has 2 races.  The maps are predictions for Thad Cochran (R) against Erik Fleming (D). In the election between Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D), I expect Wicker to win with around 55%, a much closer race than the other.

Alright, so let’s look at the states where people may disagree with me:

  • Arkansas: Mark Pryor is unopposed by a Republican. Rebekah Kennedy (Green) is the only opponent, so that’s why I have it so high. It’s not a mistake.
  • Alaska: 2 predictions ago, I had it going to “Uncle Ted” Stevens. Then, the jury found him guilty. I changed my prediction on the U.S. Election Atlas website, but didn’t repost a prediction here (although I did write a blog post saying that Mark Begich would win). Then, I started thinking, and I think Stevens will pull it off. Then, last prediction, I said, “I know the polls disagree (but the Research 2000 poll showing him down 22% is just wrong), but I don’t see Alaskans voting out Uncle Ted.”  Well, I just can’t justify keeping it in Uncle Ted’s column anymore.  I think it’s going to go to Mark Begich, but I’m not confident enough to put it in the “Strong” column.
  • Minnesota: I’m now confident enough in my call for Coleman, and he has been slightly leading in the polls.
  • North Carolina: I think Elizabeth Dole’s attack ad on Kay Hagan gave Hagan the edge she’ll need to win, but still I’m not confident enough to put it in the “Strong” column.

Now, the map indicating the confidence that I have that my prediction is right:

Democrats: 19 (+7)
Republicans: 14 (-7)
Tossup: 3
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races

Alright, so what changes did I make since last time, and why? Here they are:

State

Previous

Current

Reasoning

AK

R50T

D50L

I think the guilty verdict finally did it in for him.  Although I’m not going to mark it as “Strong” because those Alaskan’s sure love their Uncle Ted, and weirder things have happened.

MN

R40T

R40L

I think I’m confident enough to take it out of the Toss-Up category now.

NC

D50T

D50L

Again, I’m confident enough to make this a “Lean” instead of “Toss-Up.”

Well, there you have it – my Senatorial prediction.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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1 Day to Go: Final Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247

November 3, 2008

Alright, so here’s my final prediction for the Presidential elections. None of my state-by-state predictions from last time changed, other than a percentages or for 2 states (Indiana and Montana).  I’ve also done predictions for the Senate and Gubernatorial elections.

The maps are provided courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas (and you can find the most updated version of my prediction on that website here). The colors on this website are switched from the normal colors (and I’m too lazy to switch them back to the normal colors – but back in the 1980s, these colors were the colors that the media used).

Alright, on to the predictions…

Obama – 291
McCain – 247

So, the states where you might disagree with my position:

  • Ohio: As the current trand of the past week keeps up, it’ll come out right about tied. I think McCain’s last minute blitz campaigning will help him pull out just BARELY on top.  Maybe I’m just too optimistic, but I see McCain winning here.
  • Misssouri, McCain has been leading recently, baring a few polls.
  • North Carolina: I was unsure last week, and I’m still unsure this week. I really haven’t changed my opinion on this.  I had been hoping to be able to take it out of the toss-up category, but I can’t do it for either McCain or Obama.  I really struggled with this one.  It could honestly go eiher way.
  • Florida: Despite Obama’s recent lead in the polls, McCain has come back, and is trending toward taking the lead by tomorrow (and he’s already taken the lead according to some polls).
  • Indiana: I know some polls have shown Obama leading, but I just don’t see it happening tomorrow.

Now, the map indicating the confidence that I have that my prediction is right:

Obama – 291
McCain – 185
Tossup – 62

Now, how has this map changed since my last map? Here’s a chart of the changes:

State

Previous

Current

Reasoning

IN

R40L

R50L

It looks like McCain will reach 50% here.

MT

R50S

R50L

Obama is catching up here, but I don’t think he’ll pull off a win.

So, again, at this point, I think it’s gonna take a small miracle for McCain to win, and I don’t see a small miracle happening tomorrow. All of the states that are toss-ups, I have going to McCain, so, in theory, if the toss-up states go to Obama, Obama would win 353-185.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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4 Days Away: Gubernatorial Elections Prediction

November 1, 2008

Alright, this will finish out my prediction series for today, following my Presidential and Senate election predictions.  Again, the colors are switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it.  The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here.  On to the predictions…

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Democrats: 6 (+1)
Republicans: 5 (-1)
Light gray indicates states with no Gubernatorial races

So, some of the states where you may disagree with my prediction:

  • North Carolina: Pat McCroy (R) had looked like she was going to overtake Bev Perdue (D), but Perdue has begun to come back in the polls, and I think she’s going to be able to hang on and win.  This could change by my next prediction (since it’s still a toss-up in my prediction), but I don’t think it will.
  • Washington: Last time I had it going to Christine Gregoire (D), the incumbent, but a toss-up.  Today, I’m pretty confident that it’ll stay in her hands.  Dino Rossi hasn’t led / been tied since early October, and I just don’t see Rossi taking the lead.  Interestingly, over the last few days Rossi has closed the gap that had opened up about 7 days ago.  By Monday, I may have to change it back to a toss-up, but as of now, I’m fairly confident in my prediction.

Now, on to my map shsowing my confidence in my predictions:

Democrats: 5 (+1)
Republicans: 5 (-1)
Tossup: 1

Light gray indicates states with no Gubernatorial races

So, there we go.  The Republicans are going to lose 1 Governor position (Missouri), but may have the opportunity to pick one up in North Carolina.  I guess we can’t rule out a small miracle in Washington, but I don’t see the Rossi winning there.  I’ll have a final prediction on Monday.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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4 Days to Go: Senate Prediction: Democrats Gain 6 Seats

October 31, 2008

Here’s my Senate prediction.  I already did my Presidential election prediction as well as the Gubernatorial Elections prediction.  The colors ARE switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it.  The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here.  On to the predictions…

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Democrats: 16 (+6)
Republicans: 19 (-6)
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races

First, a note about Wyoming and Mississippi:

  • Wyoming has 2 races, Michael Enzi (R) against Chris Rothfuss (D) and John Barasso (R) against Nick Carter (D). I expect both Republicans to win with results around 63%.
  • Mississippi has 2 races. The maps are predictions for Thad Cochran (R) against Erik Fleming (D). In the election between Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D), I expect Wicker to win with around 51%, a much closer race than the other.

Alright, so let’s look at the states where people may disagree with me:

  • Arkansas: Mark Pryor is unopposed by a Republican.  Rebekah Kennedy (Green) is the only opponent, so that’s why I have it so high.  It’s not a mistake.
  • Alaska: Last prediction, I had it going to “Uncle Ted” Stevens.  Then, the jury found him guilty.  I changed my prediction on the U.S. Election Atlas website, but didn’t repost a prediction here (although I did write a blog post saying that Mark Begich would win).  Then, I started thinking, and I think Stevens will pull it off.  I know the polls disagree (but the Research 2000 poll showing him down 22% is just wrong), but I don’t see Alaskans voting out Uncle Ted.
  • Minnesota: Again, like last time, for every poll that comes out showing Franken ahead, a poll comes out showing Coleman ahead by the same amount.  Right now, it’s just too close to call, so I’ll keep it where I had it last week.

Now, the map indicating the confidence that I have that my prediction is right:

Democrats: 16 (+5)
Republicans: 19 (-5)
Tossup: 3
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races

Alright, so what changes did I make since last time, and why?  Here they are:

State

Previous

Current

Reasoning

AK

D50L

R50T

I don’t think they’ll vote “Uncle Ted” out.

IA

D50S

D60S

It looks like Tom Harkin will reach 60% here.

KY

R50L

R50S

Mitch McConnell seems to be making a stronger comeback, back from when it was looking like a close race.  I think he’s now safe for sure.

NE

R60S

R50S

I think this an oversight the first time I did the predictions.

NM

D60S

D50S

I think Steve Pearce (R) has gained enough support that he’ll keep Tom Udall (D) from getting above 60%.

NC

R50T

D50T

Elizabeth Dole’s “Godless” attack ad against Kay Hagan was found out to be less than true.  I think there’ll be big backlash against Dole, and I think it’ll go to Hagan, but it is still a little bit too close to call in my opinion.

OR

R40T

D50S

Like I said last week, if Gordon Smith (R) didn’t pull ahead (as he was looking like he might), I was going to slide it over to Jeff Merkley, and that’s what I did.

By Monday, when I do my final update, I should be able to take North Carolina out of the toss-up category, and if more polls come out with Begich leading by a huge margin in Alaska, I’ll switch it back to Begich.  I don’t think I’ll be able to take Minnesota out of the toss-up category, but Al Franken’s latest campaign ad controversy may help Coleman, and I may be able to slide it to the “Lean” category.

Come back here on Monday for my final prediction.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican

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4 Days to Go: My Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247

October 31, 2008

Alright, so last Tuesday, I did a prediction for the Presidential election, predicting an Obama with victory of 286-252, and said I’d update it this Tuesday.  Well, I got a little busy, but here’s my updated prediction.  I’ve also done a prediction for the Senate and Gubernatorial elections.

The maps are provided courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas (and you can find the most updated version of my prediction on that website here).  The colors on this website are switched from the normal colors (and I’m too lazy to switch them back to the normal colors – but back in the 1980s, these colors were the colors that the  media used). 

Alright, on to the predictions…

Obama – 291
McCain – 247

So, the states where you might disagree with my position:

  • Ohio: As the current trand of the past week keeps up, it’ll come out right about tied.  I think McCain’s last minute blitz campaigning will help him pull out just BARELY on top.
  • Misssouri, McCain has been leading recently, baring a few polls.
  • North Carolina: I was unsure last week, and I’m still unsure this week.  I really haven’t changed my opinion on this.  I’ll make a hopefully more final decision when I do my final prediction on Monday.  As of now, I think it’ll just barely go to McCain.
  • Florida: Despite Obama’s recent lead in the polls, I think McCain will come back and win here, but if Obama continues to increase his lead, I’ll switch it over to him.

Now, the map indicating the confidence that I have that my prediction is right:

Obama – 291
McCain – 185
Tossup – 62

Now, how has this map changed since my last map? Here’s a chart of the changes:

State

Previous

Current

Reasoning

AK

R60S

R50S

Doesn’t look like McCain will reach 60%.

AZ

R60S

R50S

Doesn’t look like McCain will reach 60%

CA

D50S

D60S

Looks like Obama will manage to reach 60% here.

DE

D50S

D60S

Looks like Obama will manage to reach 60% here.

IN

R50S

D40L

More and more polls are coming out showing that Indiana is going to go to Obama.  I’m not exactly 100% sure yet, but it’s looking like it’ll be decently hard for McCain to come back and be able to win here.

NV

R40T

D50L

Again, like Indiana, the polls just don’t look like McCain will win here.  Originally, I was predicting a declaration of Obama’s victory early in the night and thought that less Obama supporters in Nevada would show up, but Obama has now garnered enough support here in Nevada, that an early victory declaration won’t give McCain a victory in Nevada.

PA

D50S

D50L

Originally, this looked really strong for Obama, but then all 4 candidates (President and VP) headed to Pennsylvania to campaign, which made me suspicious as to Obama’s strength there.  Combined with a blitz of campaigning here on McCain’s part plus Representative John Murtha’s comments about West Pennsylvania, I’m switching this over to the “Lean” category, but I’m still confident that Obama will win.

TN

R60S

R50S

Doesn’t look like McCain will reach 60%.

ME CD1

D50S

D60S

Based on recent polls that broke down demographic areas of the state, it looks like Obama will reach 60% here, but I don’t think he will in District 2 or on a statewide level.

So, at this point, I think it’ll take a small miracle for McCain to win.  All of the states that are toss-ups, I have going to McCain, so, in theory, if the toss-up states go to Obama, Obama would win 353-185.

I’ll do a final prediction on Monday, so check back for my final prediction.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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2 Weeks Away: Gubernatorial Elections Prediction

October 21, 2008

Alright, this will finish out my prediction series for today, following my Presidential and Senate election predictions.  Again, the colors are switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it.  The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here.  On to the predictions…

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Democrats: 6 (+1) [net gain of 0]
Republicans: 5 (+1) [net gain of 0]
Light gray indicates states with no Gubernatorial races

Now, on to discussion of states where you may disagree with me:

  • North Carolina: It’s all tied up in the polls right now.  Bev Perdue (D) had been leading, but now Pat McCroy (R) has caught up.  It’s looking like he’s right about to statistically overtake her, but I’ll wait a week until I take anything out of the toss-up category.  The next couple of polls that come out will be crucial in gauging North Carolina.
  • Washington: I continue to switch this one back and forth.  At the time of my last prediction, Dino Rossi (R) had been leading for a month, but now Christine Greggoire (D), the incumbent, is back in the lead, and I think she’s going to manage to stay there through election day.  Again, anything could happen here, but I’ll probably be able to slide her over to the Lean Democrat category next week.

Really quick, here’s my confidence map:

Overall, I’m pretty confident that I’ll be able to knock both of these toss-up states into the Lean columns next week without having to change anything, but who knows what could happen.

Thanks for reading, and come back next week for a whole set of new and updated predictions.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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2 Weeks Away: Senate Prediction: Democrats Gain 4 Seats

October 21, 2008

Well, just like the Presidential prediction, here are my predictions for the Senate races (percentages is the first map, with confidence being the second map).  The colors ARE switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it.  The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here.  On to the predictions…

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Democrats: 16 (+4)
Republicans: 19 (-4)
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races

First, a note about Wyoming and Mississippi:

  • Wyoming has 2 races, Michael Enzi (R) against Chris Rothfuss (D) and John Barasso (R) against Nick Carter (D).  I expect both Republicans to win with results around 63%.
  • Mississippi has 2 races.  The maps are predictions for Thad Cochran (R) against Erik Fleming (D).  In the election between Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D), I expect Wicker to win with around 51%, a much closer race than the other.

So, let’s have a little discussion about the states that some people might disagree with me over:

  • Arkansas: Mark Pryor is unopposed by a Republican.  Rebekah Kennedy (Green) is the only opponent.
  • Alaska: As much as I dislike him, and as much as he’s done wrong, I don’t see Alaskans voting “Uncle Ted” out of office.
  • Minnesota: Had it not been for recent polls showing Norm Coleman ahead again, I would’ve given this to Al Franken.  It could easily go back before the election though.
  • North Carolina: I don’t see voters voting Elizabeth Dole out.  They may say so in the polls now, but I think she’ll win.
  • Oregon: Probably the toughest call I had to make.  I only gave it to Gordon Smith because he’s been trending upward in the polls, but by next week, if he’s not ahead, I’ll be switching this over to Jeff Merkley.

Now, my confidence map:

So, again, like my Presidential prediction, I’ll be updating this one next Tuesday, if not before.

The Democrats could win as many as 8 new seats, but I don’t see them winning any more than maybe 6.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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2 Weeks Away: My Prediction for the Presidential Election: Obama 286, McCain 252

October 21, 2008

Alright, I’ve decided that I’m going to do a prediction at least each Tuesday before the election (and then a final one on Monday the 3rd).  Here’s my prediction as of now.  The first map will be a prediction of the percentage points, and the second map will be my confidence in who will win that state.  Now, I know that my map has Obama lower than a lot of the maps circulating right now, but here’s why.  I question the number of Obama supporters in states like Ohio and Nevada that will actually come out.  I tried to leave as few toss-up states as I could, but there are just some that I’m not confident enough to call.  The maps are provided courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas (and you can find the most updated version of my prediction on that website here).  Alright, on to the predictions…

Oh, one other thing I forgot – the colors on this website are switched from the normal colors (and I’m too lazy to switch them back to the normal colors – but back in the 1980s, these colors were the colors that the  media used).

 

So, the states that differ from current polls:

  • Nevada: I don’t see it going for Obama.  I just think that as the media shows Obama taking Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, it’ll become pretty apparent that Obama has won, and less of his supporters will come out.  McCain supporters, still hoping for a miracle will turn out.
  • Ohio: Looking at trend lines, McCain should pull out ahead by 1%-2%.
  • Missouri: Same as Ohio.
  • North Carolina: Of all the states that I may switch by next Tuesday, this is at the top of the list.  Right now, I just don’t see North Carolina voting for Obama.  I think some racism will come into play, and I think McCain may sqeak through.  Again, if I had to pick one state to change, it be North Carolina.
  • Florida: Also trending McCain.

Now, my confidence:

Alright, so even though I have Obama winning by only 34 Electoral Votes, the final result could be anywhere between Obama  286-353, McCain 252-185.

Most likely, if my prediction does change, it’ll be North Carolina which would bring the total up to Obama 301, McCain 237.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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