Posts Tagged ‘Chris Christie’

New Jersey, Virginia Gubernatorial Predictions: Christie, McDonnell Win

November 2, 2009

It’s that time again – election time!  As always, I’ve been tracking the polls, and I’ve done my final predictions.  This year, there are only 2 gubernatorial races: New Jersey and Virginia.  In case you didn’t follow my predictions last year, you may find the color scheme on the maps to be a little bit weird – the colors are switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it.  The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here.  On to the predictions…

* = Party Pickup (Incumbent Loses Reelection); ^ = Party Pickup (Open Seat)

So here are my predictions, broken down by percentage:

New Jersey

  1. Chris Christie (R) – 46.35%
  2. Jon Corzine (D) – 45.47%
  3. Chris Dagget (I) – 8.18%

Virginia

  1. Bob McDonnell (R) – 57%
  2. Creigh Deeds (D) – 42%
  3. Other candidates – <1%

And here’s my confidence map:

Essentially – I could go either way on New Jersey.  The numbers I posted are the results of an algorithm I’ve developed, and tweaked from last year.  My heart is telling me that Corzine will probably pull out a win, but my mind and the numbers point toward Christie, I’m gonna stick with Christie.  There’s no doubt that McDonnell will win in Virginia.

I don’t see New Jersey called until late into the night tomorrow.  It should be an interesting night.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican


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