It’s that time again – election time! As always, I’ve been tracking the polls, and I’ve done my final predictions. This year, there are only 2 gubernatorial races: New Jersey and Virginia. In case you didn’t follow my predictions last year, you may find the color scheme on the maps to be a little bit weird – the colors are switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it. The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here. On to the predictions…
* = Party Pickup (Incumbent Loses Reelection); ^ = Party Pickup (Open Seat)
So here are my predictions, broken down by percentage:
- Chris Christie (R) – 46.35%
- Jon Corzine (D) – 45.47%
- Chris Dagget (I) – 8.18%
- Bob McDonnell (R) – 57%
- Creigh Deeds (D) – 42%
- Other candidates – <1%
And here’s my confidence map:
Essentially – I could go either way on New Jersey. The numbers I posted are the results of an algorithm I’ve developed, and tweaked from last year. My heart is telling me that Corzine will probably pull out a win, but my mind and the numbers point toward Christie, I’m gonna stick with Christie. There’s no doubt that McDonnell will win in Virginia.
I don’t see New Jersey called until late into the night tomorrow. It should be an interesting night.