I already put out my predictions for the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races. The other major race going on tomorrow is the special election for the New York 23rd Congressional District. Originally, there were 3 main candidates running: Republican Dede Scozzafava, Democrat Bill Owens, and Conservative Doug Hoffman. Hoffman entered the race because people had criticized Scozzafava as being too moderate, some saying she was even more liberal than the Democrat. Top Republicans were split in who they supported, with some Republicans like Newt Gingrich supporting Scozafava, and Sarah Palin supporting Doug Hoffman.
Last week, Scozzafava dropped out of the race and endorsed Owens. At that point, Scozzafava was trailing in the polls by over 10%, and the race between Owens and Hoffman was close. Since Scozzafava dropped out, Hoffman has skyrocketed in the polls, and I now expect him to win.
Even though Scozzafava dropped out, it’s too late to change the ballots, so she will remain on the ballot. Here’s my prediction:
- Doug Hoffman (C) – 53%
- Bill Owens – 42%
- Dede Scozzafava – 5%
I really don’t see Hoffman having any problems now that Scozzafava has dropped out – the district leans Republican and hasn’t gone for a Democrat running for the District since 1992. I see Hoffman winning pretty easily tomorrow, but we’ll see – it’s been an interesting race so far – there could always be another surprise.