## Archive for the ‘Primary’ Category

### Michigan Primary Prediction and Statistical Analysis

February 28, 2012

It’s been a while since I updated this, but I figured this would be fun.  I made my primary prediction for Michigan late last night and here’s the breakdown I went with:

Santorum – 40%
Romney – 39%
Paul – 11%
Gingrich – 9%
Others – 1%

Then today, I decided to look at the recent polls for Michigan.  The first poll I went with was starting on February 12, since anything before this wouldn’t factor in Santorum’s triple win in Missouri, Colorado, and Minnesota.  I made a scatter plot of Santorum – Romney:

I then added 2 trendlines. The first one (red) was a linear trendline which I knew wouldn’t be reflective of Santorum’s momentum recently. I plotted the second (green) second order polynomial trendline, which did a decent job at predicting his momentum, but I noticed that the relatively low lead he had right after his triple win was skewing the results a bit lower.  Those polls are so old that they don’t correctly account for what’s going on now with just a simple second order polynomial.  So I put in the third (purple) trendline, which was a third order polynomial.  This correctly factored in his slow start to gain momentum, but looks like it drastically overestimates it at the end.

So I thought, how can I better examine Santorum’s momentum.  I took out the polls right after Santorum’s triple-win, which I thought weren’t representative of the momentum he gained, then lost, and regained, and got this plot, with the red representing a linear trendline, and the green representing a second order polynomial:

This plot matched up almost perfectly with my predictions (which I wasn’t expecting it to turn out just like that), but I think accurately portrays the general momentum Santorum has had since his triple win.

Ultimately, gauging the momentum a candidate has is hard to do, but I think the second order polynomial in the second graph accurately portrays Santorum’s momentum.  Ultimately, both of these models could end up being wrong, and there’s no perfect algorithm to predict voters, but the results of my second model, I believe, accurately portray Santorum’s momentum, and cement my confidence that Santorum will have a close victory over Mitt Romney.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican

### Mike Huckabee Endorses Mike Cox (R-MI) for Governor

March 3, 2010

Well, in an interesting move that I’m still trying to figure out, former Governor and Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee (R-AR) has endorsed Attorney General Mike Cox for Governor.  Here’s a copy of the press release that I received today.  I’ll give my analysis after the press release:

## Mike Huckabee Endorses Mike Cox in 2010 Race for Governor

### Huckabee: “Mike Cox best described as Michigan’s Pro-Life, Pro-gun conservative candidate for Governor”

LIVONIA, MI— One of America’s most respected conservative leaders, former Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee today formally endorsed Mike Cox in the 2010 race for Governor.

“Mike Cox is best described as Michigan’s Pro-Life, Pro-gun conservative candidate for Governor,” said Huckabee. “Mike is an innovative, strong leader who is not afraid to take a stand on an important issue. He is opposed to the runaway tax and spend policies we are seeing at the federal and state levels.”

Cox’s message of less spending, lower taxes and reformed government has set him apart in Michigan’s race for Governor. Cox recently drew a crowd of 1,200 families, activists and community leaders to a Rally for Michigan’s Future in Oakland County and hundreds more last weekend to the Grand Opening of his campaign headquarters in Livonia.

“Mike Huckabee is one of our nation’s most respected leaders,” said Cox. “Mike Huckabee continues to fight for more liberty and less government. I am proud to have his support and am honored he is standing beside me as we fight to bring jobs back to Michigan.”

Cox announced Huckabee’s endorsement first today via social networking websites like Facebook, Twitter, U-Stream and conservative bloggers across Michigan.

Huckabee has been called an early frontrunner for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination scoring well in many polls including last November’s Gallup-USA Today poll. Mike Huckabee polled ahead of President Obama as recently as January 2010.

“Mike Cox has also fought hard to protect Second Amendment rights in Michigan,” Huckabee continued. “I am proud to endorse Mike Cox for Governor of Michigan.”

Cox is the only candidate for Governor to release a comprehensive 92 point plan to put Michigan back to work, including proposals to cut billions of dollars out of the state budget, cut taxes on job providers and families by \$2 billion, make government more transparent, reform education, and revitalize our cities. The plan is available at www.mikecox2010.com. The Mike Cox 2010 Campaign also recently announced that it raised \$1.8 million in 2009 – with roughly \$1.5 million cash on hand. The funds came from over 2,500 individual donors – with roughly 1,000 of the contributors donating less than \$100.

For more information on Mike Cox’s campaign for Governor, please visit www.mikecox2010.com or call the campaign office today at 734-525-5035.

About Gov. Mike Huckabee: Prior to his 2008 presidential campaign, Huckabee served as the 44th Governor of Arkansas from 1996-2007 and as the state’s lieutenant governor from 1993-1996. As a young adult, he served as a pastor and denominational leader. He became the youngest president ever of the Arkansas Baptist State Convention, the largest denomination in Arkansas. Huckabee’s efforts to improve his own health have received national attention. He is the author of 6 books, the most recent being “Do the Right Thing,” which spent its first 7 weeks of release in the top ten of the New York Times Bestseller list. He is currently the host of the top rated weekend hit “HUCKABEE” on the Fox News Channel, and is heard three times daily across the nation on the “Huckabee Report.” Huckabee and his wife, Janet, live in North Little Rock, Arkansas. They have three grown children: John Mark, David and Sarah.

#30#

Alright, so my analysis… this honestly confused me when I saw it.  I’ve been wondering for the past few hours why a Presidential candidate would jump into the gubernatorial race here in Michigan.

One thing is for sure, this is by far the biggest endorsement that I can think of for any of the current gubernatorial candidates.  The announcement definitely gives Cox more momentum than he already had (which is quite a bit – he’s been battling Congressman Pete Hoekstra, with both of them leading the polls at one time or another).  But will it help him in the long run?

In the 2008 Presidential Primaries, Huckabee got 16.08% of the vote in Michigan, with Romney winning with 38.92%, and McCain coming in second with 29.68%.  Huckabee did worst in Cox’s area of the state, but better in central and western Michigan, so that might help Cox a little bit, by diversifying his support.  So, I’d say that the best endorsement to get would’ve been Romney’s but Huckabee is still a major player in the conservative movement, and as of now, polling well for 2012.

Now, another thing that I thought about was Huckabee’s stances on law and order issues.  One of the major problems I’ve always had with Huckabee (don’t get me wrong – I like the guy) has been his stances on law and order issues as governor.  He issued a lot of pardons and commutations as governor of Arkansas (most notably, the recent scandal with Maurice Clemons who shot and killed 4 police officers in 2009).  Being an Attorney General, I’m not sure if Huckabee’s endorsement is the best thing for Mike Cox’s law and order record, but I may be reading into this more than I should.

Huckabee’s endorsement will help Cox with social conservatives, a group that may be hesitant to vote for him because of his affair back in 2005, but I think most people have (rightfully) moved on from that issue.  But the pro-life movement in Michigan is very strong, and Huckabee’s endorsement will go a long way for Cox when it comes to social issues.  Then again, with the current emphasis on the economy, social issues probably won’t be the deciding factor in who voters do vote for (although in the Republican primary, it’ll be more of an issue than in the general election).

But the most interesting thing about this, and I’ve been wondering this all day, is why would a Presidential candidate endorse a gubernatorial candidate in a primary race?  There’s 3 answers that I think it could possibly be:

1. Huckabee has given up running for President (at least for 2012), and is going to focus on his PAC and getting Republicans elected around the country.
2. He’s gambling that Cox will end up winning, and will help him here in Michigan in 2012.
3. Huckabee is already counting Michigan as lost to him in 2012, and isn’t afraid of losing a few potential delegates by angering non-Cox supporters.

Option 2 and 3 make the most sense to me.  I don’t think he’s given up on running, but I don’t think Huckabee can win Michigan in 2012 if Romney runs.  Romney’s biggest competition here in Michigan was McCain, and without McCain, I think Romney would’ve gotten close to, if not more than, 50% of the vote in 2008.

He may not be publicly saying it, but I don’t think he plans on winning Michigan.  My guess would be that he’s hoping Cox will bring in some supporters (and money) in 2012, so that can offset the voters that Huckabee may lose because he’s supporting Cox.

But no matter what the outcome is for Huckabee, this definitely gives Cox a decent boost for now.  Whether or not is does anything for him come August 3rd, we’ll just have to wait and see.

Done Analyzing,

Ranting Republican

### Mike Bouchard Announces Terri Lynn Land as His Running Mate

September 16, 2009

Earlier today, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard made a major campaign announcement: Secretary of State, and former Gubernatorial candidate, Terri Lynn Land would be joining his campaign as his official pick for Lt. Governor.  I first heard the news  a little after 9 this morning, but I’ve been in class until now.

Bouchard posted the following on his website earlier today:

Oakland County- Mike Bouchard, Republican candidate for governor, today announced his selection of Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land as his lieutenant governor running mate, citing her successful record of improving services for Michigan residents while cutting costs.

“Terri Lynn Land’s innovative leadership proves that state government can control spending while offering Michigan residents more,” Bouchard said. “From day one as Secretary of State, she looked to cut costs and make her department more efficient. I look forward to working with Terri as my lieutenant governor to fix Lansing so Michigan can get back to work.”

Bouchard, a former state lawmaker who now serves as Oakland County sheriff, made the announcement at press conferences in Detroit, Grand Rapids and Lansing. After the visits, Bouchard and Land launched a bus tour that will take them across Michigan to talk with state residents.

“I’m honored to join Mike’s campaign to turn Michigan around and again make it a national leader in job creation,” Secretary Land said. “His willingness to make the right decisions for Michigan now instead of focusing on the next election is exactly what Michigan needs. He has the knowledge, experience and backbone to get our state back on the right track.

“As both a sheriff and state senator, he has shown he believes that government should live within its means by reducing spending and cutting taxes.”

As Oakland County sheriff, Bouchard leads one of the nation’s largest sheriff’s departments with 1,200 personnel and has used creative ideas to save taxpayers’ dollars. Oakland County now saves \$1.6 million a year because of his efforts to privatize the jail’s food services. As a state senator, his record of accomplishment includes protecting families by leading the push to create the Michigan Sex Offender Registry and passing laws that reduced the state’s real estate transfer tax, saving taxpayers to date over a billion dollars. He grew up in Oakland County and has three children with his wife, Pam.

Before becoming secretary of state, Land served as Kent County’s clerk and register of deeds. Highlights of her time as secretary of state include revolutionizing the branch office environment and employing the latest technology so Michigan residents, whether as voters or branch office customers, can expect fast, efficient service. She has two children with husband, Dan, and lives in Byron Center.

Land sent out the following e-mail:

Dear Friend,

As you remember, I offered my endorsement of Mike Bouchard back in June.

I told you then that Mike Bouchard had the diverse background both legislatively and administratively to fix Lansing so Michigan can get back to work.

Back then, I told you that Mike was a proven vote-getter; that I believed his experience winning a statewide primary in 2006 would be key to his success in November 2010.

Well, I’ve learned a lot in the past few months.

After spending the summer on the road with Mike, I’ve realized that he is even more impressive than I had originally thought.

First of all, Mike is an incredible campaigner.

Mike is tireless. After seven years on the road, I’m used to traveling the highways and byways of this state. Believe me, I know a “road warrior” when I see one! Mike loves connecting with people, learning what they care about, and sharing his vision with them. I am confident that he has the instinct and the heart to win both the primary and the general next fall.

Mike gets it. As a former leader in the state senate, Mike has experience working with the legislature, and as Oakland County Sheriff, he knows how to get things done administratively as well. But Mike is also a businessman. He has signed the front of a paycheck; not just the back. He understands firsthand that Michigan is hurting right now, and what it will take to start the healing process.

Finally, Mike is ready. I’ve been in this business a long time, and I know that sometimes a candidate may have all the “right stuff” on paper, but will have a hard time making that transition once they take office.

And Michigan can’t wait for its next governor to waste any time. Our families don’t have the luxury of waiting for our next governor to adjust to a learning curve. We need help now.

For those reasons, I am so pleased to join his team officially as his pick for Lt. Governor.

We believe that my experience traveling the state, streamlining services, keeping a balanced budget and delivering world class service even in these tight economic times will give Mike an advantage when we take office in January 2011.

I am so honored to be part of this team.

I am confident that we have the work ethic, the ideas and the passion to fix Lansing and get Michigan back to work!

Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to seeing you soon on the campaign trail!

Sincerely,

Terri Lynn Land

Bouchard also held a press conference earlier today in Detroit, saying:

I am really excited to have her on board. Terri Lynn Land’s innovative leadership proves that state government can control spending while offering Michigan residents more.

The people of the State of Michigan see what happens to their tax dollars.

I am willing to be a one-term governor if that is what it takes to fix Michigan. It is long overdue. They have been forestalling tough decisions for the past 6 1/2 years.

Personally, I think this is a great move for Bouchard.  I think everybody knew this was coming.  I predicted it back in June when Land dropped her bid for Governor and endorsed Bouchard.

This will have the biggest impact on Pete Hoekstra, the Republican Congressman from the 2nd District.  Land is also from the West side of Michigan, and her place on a Bouchard ticket will probably impact Hoekstra the most, but we’ll see.

With the addition of a big name like Land’s to the Bouchard ticket, I would put Bouchard as the frontrunner in this race; however, we still have just under a year until the primary, and a LOT of things could happen before then.  This race is far from over.

I’ll continue to follow the candidates and the race, so make sure to check back here for my analysis on the race as we continue to get closer to the primary.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican

### Howard Dean Decides Not to Seek Second Term as DNC Chair

November 10, 2008

Word has just come in that Howard Dean, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, will  not seek another term as chairman.

Although I disagree with his politics, I have admired Howard Dean for his charisma and (partially) his leadership of the Democratic Party.  But before I get into that, I’ll give you his quote regarding the November elections, released November 4th:

This has been a truly historic, transformational election. Tonight, our country chose hope over fear, the future over the past, unity over division. This election also reflects the passing of the torch to a new generation. Barack Obama inspired young voters across this country to answer the call and get involved. They responded to his promise to put partisanship and divisiveness aside and come together as one nation to find solutions. They turned out. They made calls. They knocked on doors. And they helped change our country.

The American people have given all of us – Democrats, Republicans and Independents – a simple mandate: to work together find big solutions to the big challenges facing our country. We must work together to change the direction of our wonderful country and to restore America. With the help of strong Democratic majorities in Congress, President Barack Obama is going to set this nation on a course to provide the change we need.

Today I am humbled by what we have accomplished over the last four years. Together, we can build on this moment to bring our nation together and work as one to overcome the challenges we face. It is what we as Americans have always done. Under Barack Obama’s leadership, we’ll do it again.

Now, my opinion of Dean…

Back in 2004, when he ran for President, and had his “Dean Scream” (which I just had to post below), I didn’t criticize him.  I commended him for his charisma.

And when he stood up to Michigan and Florida and was planning on stripping them of their delegates, I commended him, for sticking to his guns and keeping his word.  Then, it became apparent that those delegates may be necessary to help end the primary race (or at least give Barack enough momentum for him to finish ahead before the actual floor vote), and he backed down and agreed to seat them with half votes.  I lost a lot of respect for Dean that day, because he gave in to pressure.

Still, he’ll remain one of the politicians that I admire, even though I staunchly disagree with his politics.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
:: :: :: :: ::

### Barack Obama Will Not Pull Out of Iraq Within 16 Months

October 14, 2008

It amazes me how many people are under this illusion that Senator Obama will pull our troops out of Iraq within 16 months of assuming office.  Why do I doubt that he’ll actually pull out within 16 months?

Well, lets take a look at the history of Obama’s stances on Iraq:

1. First, in September of 2007, Obama said, “So let me be clear.  There is no military solution in Iraq.  There never was.  The best way to protect our security and to pressure Iraq’s leaders to resolvetheir civil war is to immediately begin to remove our combat troops.  Not in six months or one year, but now.”
2. Then, as his campaign picked up steam during the primary, he said in primary debates that he’d have our troops out of Iraq within 6 months of assuming office.
3. Then on January 15, 2008, he changed it to the end of 2009 (a little over 11 months): “I have put forward a plan that will get our troops out by the end of 2009.  We already saw today reports that the Iraqi minister suggests that we’re going to be in there at least until 2018, a decade-long commitment.”  So that was an increase of 5 months.
4. Obama’s current plan is to have troops out within 16 months, another increase of 5 years months (sorry – my bad).

But is that statement even true?  This is an excerpt from his website:

Military experts believe we can safely redeploy combat brigades from Iraq at a pace of 1 to 2 brigades a month that would remove them in 16 months. That would be the summer of 2010 – more than 7 years after the war began.

Under the Obama-Bidenplan, a residual force will remain in Iraq and in the region to conduct targeted counter-terrorism missions against al Qaeda in Iraq and to protect American diplomatic and civilian personnel. They will not build permanent bases in Iraq, but will continue efforts to train and support the Iraqi security forces as long as Iraqi leaders move toward political reconciliation and away from sectarianism.

He never actually even says how many troops will be left there.  And how is this any different than what McCain wants to do?  McCain wants to leave as soon as possible, just like Obama, but McCain wants to make sure the job is done well.

And Obama, before going to Iraq, told reporters:

And as I’ve said before, and this was true during the heat of the primary, it was true when we posted this Web site. I have always said, and again, you can take a look at the language, that as commander-in-chief, I would always reserve the right to do what’s best in America’s national interests. And if it turned out, for example, that, you know, we had to, in certain months, slow the pace because of the safety of American troops in terms of getting combat troops out, of course we would take that into account. I would be a poor commander-in-chief if I didn’t take facts on the ground into account.

And he also said (before he went to Iraq), “I’ve always said that the pace of withdrawal would be dictated by the safety and security of our troops and the need to maintain stability. That assessment has not changed…And when I go to Iraq and have a chance to talk to some of the commanders on the ground, I’m sure I’ll have more information and will continue to refine my policies.”

Even Matt Sous, the President of Students for Obama at Central Michigan University said during a debate last year, “Our goal is not to get out of Iraq, but to put pressure on the leaders there.”

When Senator Obama says that he will have us out within 16 months, it is nothing more than a ploy to get votes.  He’ll keep saying, “5 more months” whenever the deadline gets near, and we’ll be there just as long as Senator McCain would keep us there.  The difference is that Obama refuses to admit that he will keep us in Iraq just as long as Senator McCain would.

Hopefully people begin to see the light, and start supporting Senator McCain.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
:: :: :: :: ::

### A Plea to All Michigan Voters (And Any Other Voters, Really)

October 7, 2008

Folks, I’m going to be straight with you here.  I think we all know that it’s going to take a miracle for McCain to win Michigan (I won’t say it’s impossible – I’ve learned my lesson once before).

And I’m still hearing McCain and Republican Party people saying, “We can win Michigan!”  Well, true, we can, but I don’t think we will (I will say that things could change after tonight’s debate – tonight’s debate will be McCain’s best debate).

First, my appeal to Obama supporters (especially those of you who have registered at your college – I know up here at Central Michigan University, around 5,000 students have registered to vote putting their permanent address as Mount Pleasant): Don’t just vote straight party ticket.  I don’t do this, and I’m a hard core Republican.  Either 1) Don’t vote for the races that you don’t know anything about (county races) or 2) Do some research and vote for the best candidate.

I’m not trying to keep you from voting for Obama – I realize that you’ll vote for him.  I don’t like it, but I’ve accepted it.  But people like the Register of Deeds, Sharon Brown, and the County Clerk, Joyce Swan, who have been in office for years, and have perfected the jobs that they do.  Having a bunch of college students (most of whom will leave the county in 4-6 years) elect 2 people who have no clue what they’re doing over 2 competent public servants is WRONG!  But do you know why it might happen?  Because Students for Obama and the College Democrats here at CMU are telling people to vote straight party ticket Democrat.  Now, I’ve gone up and asked the Students for Obama President, Matt Sous, if he’s doing this and he’s told me no.  But I’ve heard him encourage students to vote straight party ticket while he’s getting people registered to vote.  So again, I implore students (all over the state): look into these local races.  Don’t vote straight party ticket (don’t even do it if you’re going to vote for all Democrats – just vote for them individually).

Now, to my Republican friends: I’ve heard people now saying, “Now that McCain’s out, I don’t need to vote.”  HOLD IT!  There’s still races for the House of Representatives, as well as State Senate and House.  There’s races in the counties and in the cities (but like I said before, don’t vote stupid – don’t just vote party – vote candidate).

People like Representative Joe Knollenberg (9th District) still need your votes.  These are still close races.  Go out there and vote for McCain/Palin, even IF we’re going to lose (and again, we may not).  Go out there and VOTE on these other issues.  We also have 2 very important ballot issues.  Don’t give up your right to vote, the right that our troops have died for just because you think that the Presidential candidate that you support might lose!

This election is far from over.  Tonight’s debate (which I will live blog) will probably go well for McCain (he does well in town hall settings), and he could rebound.  Who knows.  I don’t think he’ll win Michigan, but stranger things have happened.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
:: :: :: :: ::

### Henry Kissinger Says that Obama Lied About His Views on Iran

September 29, 2008

I know that this has been raised in the media quite a bit, but I just wanted to comment briefly on this.  During the debate, the following exchange took place (transcript courtesy of CNN) (bolded areas are the parts that relate directly to Dr. Henry Kissinger (Fmr. Secretary of State), but I always put things in context, so here’s the whole segment:

LEHRER: Two minutes on Iran, Senator Obama.

OBAMA: Well, let me just correct something very quickly. I believe the Republican Guard of Iran is a terrorist organization. I’ve consistently said so. What Senator McCain refers to is a measure in the Senate that would try to broaden the mandate inside of Iraq. To deal with Iran.

And ironically, the single thing that has strengthened Iran over the last several years has been the war in Iraq. Iraq was Iran’s mortal enemy. That was cleared away. And what we’ve seen over the last several years is Iran’s influence grow. They have funded Hezbollah, they have funded Hamas, they have gone from zero centrifuges to 4,000 centrifuges to develop a nuclear weapon.

So obviously, our policy over the last eight years has not worked. Senator McCain is absolutely right, we cannot tolerate a nuclear Iran. It would be a game changer. Not only would it threaten Israel, a country that is our stalwart ally, but it would also create an environment in which you could set off an arms race in this Middle East.

Now here’s what we need to do. We do need tougher sanctions. I do not agree with Senator McCain that we’re going to be able to execute the kind of sanctions we need without some cooperation with some countries like Russia and China that are, I think Senator McCain would agree, not democracies, but have extensive trade with Iran but potentially have an interest in making sure Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon.

But we are also going to have to, I believe, engage in tough direct diplomacy with Iran and this is a major difference I have with Senator McCain, this notion by not talking to people we are punishing them has not worked. It has not worked in Iran, it has not worked in North Korea. In each instance, our efforts of isolation have actually accelerated their efforts to get nuclear weapons. That will change when I’m president of the United States.

MCCAIN: Senator Obama twice said in debates he would sit down with Ahmadinejad, Chavez and Raul Castro without precondition. Without precondition. Here is Ahmadinenene [mispronunciation], Ahmadinejad, who is, Ahmadinejad, who is now in New York, talking about the extermination of the State of Israel, of wiping Israel off the map, and we’re going to sit down, without precondition, across the table, to legitimize and give a propaganda platform to a person that is espousing the extermination of the state of Israel, and therefore then giving them more credence in the world arena and therefore saying, they’ve probably been doing the right thing, because you will sit down across the table from them and that will legitimize their illegal behavior.

The point is that throughout history, whether it be Ronald Reagan, who wouldn’t sit down with Brezhnev, Andropov or Chernenko until Gorbachev was ready with glasnost and perestroika.

Or whether it be Nixon’s trip to China, which was preceded by Henry Kissinger, many times before he went. Look, I’ll sit down with anybody, but there’s got to be pre-conditions. Those pre-conditions would apply that we wouldn’t legitimize with a face to face meeting, a person like Ahmadinejad. Now, Senator Obama said, without preconditions.

OBAMA: So let’s talk about this. First of all, Ahmadinejad is not the most powerful person in Iran. So he may not be the right person to talk to. But I reserve the right, as president of the United States to meet with anybody at a time and place of my choosing if I think it’s going to keep America safe.

And I’m glad that Senator McCain brought up the history, the bipartisan history of us engaging in direct diplomacy.

Senator McCain mentioned Henry Kissinger, who’s one of his advisers, who, along with five recent secretaries of state, just said that we should meet with Iran — guess what — without precondition. This is one of your own advisers.

Now, understand what this means “without preconditions.” It doesn’t mean that you invite them over for tea one day. What it means is that we don’t do what we’ve been doing, which is to say, “Until you agree to do exactly what we say, we won’t have direct contacts with you.”

There’s a difference between preconditions and preparation. Of course we’ve got to do preparations, starting with low-level diplomatic talks, and it may not work, because Iran is a rogue regime.

But I will point out that I was called naive when I suggested that we need to look at exploring contacts with Iran. And you know what? President Bush recently sent a senior ambassador, Bill Burns, to participate in talks with the Europeans around the issue of nuclear weapons.

Again, it may not work, but if it doesn’t work, then we have strengthened our ability to form alliances to impose the tough sanctions that Senator McCain just mentioned.

And when we haven’t done it, as in North Korea — let me just take one more example — in North Korea, we cut off talks. They’re a member of the axis of evil. We can’t deal with them.

And you know what happened? They went — they quadrupled their nuclear capacity. They tested a nuke. They tested missiles. They pulled out of the nonproliferation agreement. And they sent nuclear secrets, potentially, to countries like Syria.

When we re-engaged — because, again, the Bush administration reversed course on this — then we have at least made some progress, although right now, because of the problems in North Korea, we are seeing it on shaky ground.

And — and I just — so I just have to make this general point that the Bush administration, some of Senator McCain’s own advisers all think this is important, and Senator McCain appears resistant.

He even said the other day that he would not meet potentially with the prime minister of Spain, because he — you know, he wasn’t sure whether they were aligned with us. I mean, Spain? Spain is a NATO ally.

MCCAIN: Of course.

OBAMA: If we can’t meet with our friends, I don’t know how we’re going to lead the world in terms of dealing with critical issues like terrorism.

MCCAIN: I’m not going to set the White House visitors schedule before I’m president of the United States. I don’t even have a seal yet.

Look, Dr. Kissinger did not say that he would approve of face-to- face meetings between the president of the United States and the president — and Ahmadinejad. He did not say that.

OBAMA: Of course not.

MCCAIN: He said that there could be secretary-level and lower level meetings. I’ve always encouraged them. The Iranians have met with Ambassador Crocker in Baghdad.

What Senator Obama doesn’t seem to understand that if without precondition you sit down across the table from someone who has called Israel a “stinking corpse,” and wants to destroy that country and wipe it off the map, you legitimize those comments.

This is dangerous. It isn’t just naive; it’s dangerous. And so we just have a fundamental difference of opinion.

As far as North Korea is concerned, our secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, went to North Korea. By the way, North Korea, most repressive and brutal regime probably on Earth. The average South Korean is three inches taller than the average North Korean, a huge gulag.

We don’t know what the status of the dear leader’s health is today, but we know this, that the North Koreans have broken every agreement that they’ve entered into.

And we ought to go back to a little bit of Ronald Reagan’s “trust, but verify,” and certainly not sit down across the table from — without precondition, as Senator Obama said he did twice, I mean, it’s just dangerous.

OBAMA: Look, I mean, Senator McCain keeps on using this example that suddenly the president would just meet with somebody without doing any preparation, without having low-level talks. Nobody’s been talking about that, and Senator McCain knows it. This is a mischaracterization of my position.

When we talk about preconditions — and Henry Kissinger did say we should have contacts without preconditions — the idea is that we do not expect to solve every problem before we initiate talks.

And, you know, the Bush administration has come to recognize that it hasn’t worked, this notion that we are simply silent when it comes to our enemies. And the notion that we would sit with Ahmadinejad and not say anything while he’s spewing his nonsense and his vile comments is ridiculous. Nobody is even talking about that.

MCCAIN: So let me get this right. We sit down with Ahmadinejad, and he says, “We’re going to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth,” and we say, “No, you’re not”? Oh, please.

OBAMA: No, let me tell…

MCCAIN: By the way, my friend, Dr. Kissinger, who’s been my friend for 35 years, would be interested to hear this conversation and Senator Obama’s depiction of his — of his positions on the issue. I’ve known him for 35 years.

OBAMA: We will take a look.

MCCAIN: And I guarantee you he would not — he would not say that presidential top level.

MCCAIN: Of course he encourages and other people encourage contacts, and negotiations, and all other things. We do that all the time.

LEHRER: We’re going to go to a new…

MCCAIN: And Senator Obama is parsing words when he says precondition means preparation.

OBAMA: I am not parsing words.

MCCAIN: He’s parsing words, my friends.

Alright, so again, I bolded the parts relevant to Dr. Kissinger.

Obama is arguing that Kissinger said that we should meet with Iran without preconditions.  McCain has taken this to say that Obama is saying that we should have the President meet with President Ahmadinejad without preconditions.  Personally, I didn’t get that strong of a statement from this debate; HOWEVER, he did say (back in the Youtube primary debate) that HE would meet with Iran (and other nations) without preconditions in his first year of office.  He also said (in this debate), “I reserve the right, as president of the United States to meet with anybody at a time and place of my choosing if I think it’s going to keep America safe.” So although Obama may only be arguing for lower-level negotiations now, he HAS in the past said HE HIMSELF would meet without preconditions.  To me, it seems like McCain is making Obama’s statements from this debate seem a little more extreme than they necessarily are, but Obama is clearly changing his stance on the issues.

But we have one other thing:

Dr. Kissinger released the following statement:

Senator McCain is right. I would not recommend the next president of the United States engage in talks with Iran at the presidential level. My views on this issue are entirely compatible with the views of my friend Sen. John McCain. We do not agree on everything, but we do agree that any negotiations with Iran must be geared to reality.

So, although McCain may have stretched Obama’s statements a bit, Obama took Dr. Kissinger’s comments farther than Dr. Kissinger intended, and Obama has flip-flopped on the issue.  The greater fault definitely lies with Obama here, who is just being completely dishonest.

Kissinger did say that “I do not believe that we can make conditions for the opening of negotiations.”  Personally, I disagree with that – I will note that we have NEVER successfully met with a hostile country without preconditions at the Presidential level.  Nixon and Mao met with preconditions after years of other lower-level talks.  The same with Gorbachev and Reagan.  And the one time we did meet without preconditions, was when Kennedy met with Khrushchev and Kennedy admits that “He just beat the hell out of me.  I’ve got a terrible problem if he thinks I’m inexperienced and have no guts.  Until we remove those ideas we won’t get anywhere with him.”

That, my friends, would be Barack Obama.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
:: :: :: :: ::

### Live Analysis of John McCain’s Acceptance Speech at the RNC

September 4, 2008

Alright, we’re now waiting for McCain to come out and speak – he’s had his family come out and Cindy spoke, theyr’e playing a video of him now.  And his mom just called him a “mamma’s boy” – that was funny.

Talking about his service in the military, and talking about being held as a Prisoner of War – I gotta say, no matter who you are, you have to respect John and any of our troops.

Talking about his time in the Senate, “committed to protect the American people,” opposed to pork barrel spending and tax increases.

Talking about his family, his children.  “What a life, what a faith, what a family.”  Nice quote.

The video is now over, and we are waiting for McCain to come out.

And Fred Thompson is now narrating, John McCain has now come out.  There’s a huge roar from the crowd.

It’s been about 2 minutes, all he’s been able to get out so far is, “Thank you,” over and over again.

“Tonight, I have a privilege given few Americans, a privilege of accepting our party’s nomination for the President of the United States.”  There you go, he is now OFFICIALLY the Republican nominee.

“In my life, no success has come without a fight,” and this campaign wasn’t any different.  He’s saying that that’s a compliment to his former opponents, and he’s thanking them for now supporting him.  I think that’s one of the last few times he’ll need to try to bring bitter people over, people who had supported other Republican candidates, but not him.  Although he probably won’t sway over any more Ron Paul supporters that he hasn’t already won over.

He’s saying he’s grateful for George W. Bush, Laura Bush, George H. W. Bush, and Barbara Bush.  He said he’s “indebted” to Cindy and his 7 kids.  I “can’t imagine a life without the happiness you’ve given me. … [Cindy] is more my inspiration that I am hers.”  And that’s good – showing he’s a down-to-earth family man.  “And I know she will make a great first lady.”

He’s talking about his mother raising him as a kid, while his father was in the Navy, and he’s thanking her now.  96 years old!  Wow – she doesn’t look that old – Congratulations!

“I intend to earn [your trust].”

He’s saying that him and Obama will go at it, “but you have my respect and admiration.”  He’s saying that they’re both Americans, and that means more to him than anything else.  And that’s showing that McCain is going to keep this a civil election, and that ultimately, both want the best for America.

“My friends, we’re going to win this election!”  And that energized the crowd pretty quickly.  He’s showing a lot of optimism going into this.  After we’ve won we’ll “get this country back on the road to prosperity and peace.”  And there’s now a war protester, and they’re all drowning her out with chants of “USA.”  He can’t get a word out.  “My friends, please don’t be diverted by the ground noise and the static.”  And the crowd has erupted.  “Americans want us to stop yelling at each other, OK.”  Back to what he was saying, these are tough times, and he got interrupted again.  Anyway, talking about him showing that a McCain administration will turn the country around, and get us back on our feet.

He’s just talked about Sarah Palin being his running mate, and that she’ll make a great Vice President.  He thanked everyone for their warm welcome last night.  He’s talking about her executive experience, energy, corruption, balancing budgets, taking on special interests, reaching across the aisle – he’s emphasizing things that Obama, who is a rookie as well, hasn’t accomplished.  And that’s the difference of experience.  Both Palin and Obama are rookies, but Palin has actually DONE things!

“I can’t wait to introduce her to Washington. … Change is coming!”  And Palin and McCain will bring change to Washington (sure, not all of it will be good,  but most of it will).

“I’m not in the habit of breaking my promises to my country, and neither is Governor Palin,” so you can count on us saying that we will turn this country around.  They have the strength, judgment, and experience to carry this out, he said.

“I don’t work for special interests.  I don’t work for myself.  I work for you.”  And that was an awesome quote.  It both brings him down to earth, but also appeals to moderates.  He’s talking about fighting corruption, no matter what party, and fighting big spenders in both parties.  And this is one of the things that I love about McCain – he’s saying he’ll veto any pork bills that come to his desk, and I love that policy.  It’s time that we stop wasting money, and McCain will do that for us.

“I’d rather lose an election than see my country lose a war” – using the quote he used during the primary, but that is such a GREAT quote, and it’s so true of John McCain and his “country first” slogan and policy.  Fortunately, the surge worked, and now McCain can go on to both win an election and help us win this war!

“I don’t mind a good fight [and] I’ve had quite a few tough ones in my life. … What you fight for is the real test.  I fight for Americans.  I fight for you.”  Again, a great quote, and McCain will fight for Americans.  Obama has spent most of his time in the Senate campaigning, and before that, he was in the Illinois legislature, where he voted “Present” most of the time.

He’s talking about making sure that the country where we have lost troops “will remain safe from its enemies.”  And he’s showing that he cares about these soldiers who have died overseas.

“We lost the trust of the American people when some Republicans gave in to the temptations of corruption … when we made government bigger … when we valued our power over our principles.  We’re going to change that.”  And he’s again, showing that he will reform government, even if it makes Republicans angry.  “The party of Reagan and Roosevelt and Lincoln is going to get back to basics.”  GREAT quote – as I was saying, Republicans have lost their small government principles, and McCain will bring us back to that.  He’ll end big spending, and give the money back to the people where it belongs.

He’s talking about “letting the people keep the fruits of their labor,” cutting taxes, etc.

“We believe in the values of  families, neighborhoods. … We believe in a government who doesn’t make choices for you, but makes sure that you have choices to make for yourselves.”  McCain will reduce spending and Obama will increase them (McCain said that).  He’s saying that he’ll cut spending, but Obama will raise it.  McCain will encourage jobs, but Obama’s policies won’t.  McCain says he’ll cut the 2nd highest business tax in the world.  He said he’ll double the child tax exemption to \$7,000, and that’s something that’ll appeal to the middle class, as it should.

“Government assistance for the unemployed was design for the 1950s.  That’s gonna change under my watch.”  Thank you – the welfare system is so out of date.  We need to completely reform the system (I’d say get rid of it, but that won’t happen, because the American church, who used to do what the government does now, can never take back the responsibility of caring for the poor).

Talking about finding employment at a decent wage.

“Track and reward good teachers, and help bad teachers find another line of work.”  Or you could just fire them!  That was harsh, I know.  “Parents deserve a choice in the education of their children, and I intend to give it to them.”  That’s good, as long as it’s not vouchers.  We don’t let people get out of Medicare taxes if they won’t use Medicare, so I don’t see why we should do it for schools.  “I want schools to answer to parents and students” not unions and bureaucrats “and when I’m President, they will.”  Great quote.  The school system (especially in Michigan, and ESPECIALLY in Wayne County needs reform!).  We need to cut spending where we can, where it’s just being wasted and put it into areas that NEED money.

He’s talking about more offshore drilling, and the crowd loved that – more “Drill baby drill” chants, using nuclear, power, wind, hydroelectric, and tide power plants.  “We must use all resources … to rescue our economy from rising oil prices and restore the health of our planet. … It’s an ambitious plan … but we’ve faced tougher challenges.  It’s time to show the world how Americans lead.”  That’s good.  He emphasized that Obama doesn’t like nuclear, and I LOVE nuclear power, as do a lot of Democrats I know.  We can’t keep making excuses for every type of power plant we find.  There’s downsides to all of them, but we can’t just sit around waiting for the perfect energy solution.

“I know how military works. … I know how the world works.”  He’s talking about knowing what is good in the military, and he said he knows the bad things that have happened in the military.  He will strengthen our military.  Talking about his grandfather, and World War II, and then dying the day after the peace agreement was signed – that shows you what he was living for.  He wanted to see America through the war safely – that is an American patriot for you!

“In America, we change things that need to be changed. … The work that is ours is plainly before us.  We don’t need to search for it.”  From transportation fuel, to disaster response, to the way we train workers.  “We have to catch up to history, and we have to change the way we do business in Washington.”  Emphasizing change is good.  He’s showing that Obama won’t change Washington, he hasn’t.  McCain has been a champion of change, and when he’s President, he will CONTINUE to change Washington.

“I will fix problems that need to be fixed.  I will reach out my hand to anyone to get this country moving again.  I have that record and the scars to prove it.  Senator Obama does not.”  Great quote there – and showing that Obama has been a DO NOTHING Senator, but McCain has done stuff, even when it wasn’t popular.

“We can do anything we put our minds to.  I’ll ask Democrats and Independents to serve with me.  My administration will” be transparent.  And he’s shown he’ll have Independents – I think he’ll have Lieberman in his cabinet.

“I’ve never lived through days, good or bad, that I haven’t thank God for the privilege.”  Good quote there.  Now he’s saying that he “was blessed by misfortune … [in] serving with heroes.”  He’s talking about being captured by the Vietnamese, talking about getting ready to go out for his 23rd mission.  He’s saying that he was doing stuff for his own pleasure and pride.  Now he’s talking about being put into the cell.  Once they found out who his father was, they took him to a hospital, putting him simply in a cast, not setting the bones properly.  Saying that he couldn’t even feed himself, that he was no longer living for selfish independence.  Talking about being with 2 men.  “Those men saved my life.”  Talking about him being offered to leave early, but he refused, because there had been men shot down before him.  And that got a huge response from the crowd, as it should – he’s an American hero, and now they’re shouting “hero” – but he is a hero.  He’s an American patriot and hero.

He’s saying that after he turned down their offer, they abused him more than ever, and they eventually broke him.  He said he was ashamed, but a friend told him that he had fought as hard as he could, and no man can fight alone, but to get up and fight.  “I fell in love with my country when I was a prisoner in someone else’s. … I loved it because it was not just a place, an idea, a cause worth fighting for.  I was never the same again.  I was never my own again anymore.  I was my country’s.”  That was a GREAT quote.  It shows how much dedication he has to his country.  He doesn’t care about himself, but about all of us.

“If you find faults with our country, make it a better one. … become a teacher, enter the ministry, run for public office … teach an illiterate adult to read. … Our country will be better and you will be happier, because nothing is better than to serve a cause other than yourself.  I’m going to fight for my cause every day as your President. … With hard work, strong faith, and a little courage, great things are always within our reach.  Fight with me, fight for what’s good for our country, fight for opportunity for all.  Stand up and defend our country from it’s enemies.  Stand up for each other.  Stand up and fight.  We’re Americans, we never give up, we never quit, we never hide from history, we make history.”  And you couldn’t even hear him anymore, the crowd was just overwhelmingly loud.  They were just cheering and cheering him on.  “Thank you, God bless you, and God bless America.”

There you go – McCain emphasized his moderate views, his reformer views.  He also emphasized his conservative views, but showed that he’s not dedicated to the party, but the American people.  He is dedicated to the American people, and will fight for them if that means opposing Republicans, Democrats, terrorists, or anybody else.

Overall, I’d give it an 9/10.  It was REALLY good at the end, but at other parts, it just didn’t click with me.

Now, the balloons are falling as McCain and Palin’s families are on the stage now.  The crowd is still going wild.  Sarah Palin just said, “They’re beautiful” (at least I think that’s what she said – there’s no mic, I’m trying to read lips).

The balloons are continuing to fall, and the crowd is still cheering, it’s just a fun atmosphere.  McCain and Palin are going out and waving to the crowd, smiling together.  The McCains and Sarah Palin are now walking the crowd, and that is going to wrap up my coverage of the Republican National Convention.  Thank you for reading, and come back here for updates all through until November!

Done Analyzing,

Ranting Republican
:: :: :: :: ::

### Live Analysis of Barack Obama’s Acceptance Speech at the DNC

August 28, 2008

Alright, I’ll now be doing my last live blog of the DNC, Barack Obama’s acceptance speech:

Video’s starting.  Talking about his grandparents (the white ones), and him being born.  Talking about him going to school, college, then moving to Chicago.

Talking about him meeting Michelle.  Talking about him becoming an Illinois state Senator.

Talking about him move  up to the U.S. Senate.  Talking about his ethics reform bill.

Talking about his mother passing away.

Now talking about the start of Obama’s campaign.

And Barack has entered the stage.  The crowd loves him.  And some girl’s crying – that’s a little over the top.

“With profound gratitude … I accept your nomination for President of the United States.”  There you go, he’s officially the Democratic nominee.

And I just got interrupted – something about thanking Hillary.

Thanking Bill for his speech last night.  And he just thanked Joe Biden for being his running mate.

And thank you to his family and Michelle.

Talking about being at war, “the economy’s in turmoil,” and other struggles.  Talking about not being able to afford credit card bills – WELL THEN DON’T BUY WHAT YOU CAN’T AFFORD!  Blaming it all on “the failed policies of George W. Bush.”  Because it’s all Bush’s fault.

“America, we are better than these 8 last years.  We are a better country than this.”

“The same party that brought you 2 terms of George Bush and Dick Cheney, will ask you for a 3rd” – McCain really isn’t like Bush, but it’s good for them to compare McCain to Bush.

Talking about McCain’s service and that “we owe him our gratitude and respect.”  Talking about McCain voting with Bush for 90% of the time.  Didn’t they say 95% last night?  That’s not too consistent.

Talking about health care, education, and the economy, “Senator McCain has been anything but independent.”  Again, it’s good for them to compare him to Bush.  Talking about his economic plan writer and that we are “suffering from a mental recession … and a nation of whiners.”

Now he’s talking about tax breaks, and that McCain’s tax cuts for big business and rich people will hurt the economy.  Well, he’ll cut taxes for the middle class, and cut SPENDING!

“Out of work, tough luck, you’re on your own” – Obama said is McCain’s plan.  “Pull yourself up by your bootstraps.  If you don’t have boots, you’re on your own.”  OK, that was a clever line.  He’s doing a good job talking about the economy.

He’s running to help fix the economy.  Talking about veterans coming back from Iraq.  Talking about a student who works a night shift, so he can pay for college.  Talking about a worker whose factory was shut down.  Talking about difficulties in starting their own business.

“We have obligations to treat each other with dignity and respect. … The economy should reward drive and growth.”  THEN LET THE ECONOMY RUN ITS COURSE!

“Let me spell out exactly what that change would mean if I am President: Change means that (couldn’t hear it) doesn’t reward the business who wrote it, but the workers who deserve it.”  Appealing to workers – good.

“I will cut taxes for 95% of all working families” – so is he going to give a tax break to everybody except the top 5% of the country?  I can guarantee you that that is NOT his plan.

“Now is the time to end this addiction [to foreign oil].”

“As President … I will invest in clean coal technologies, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power.”  I like the nuclear part!  We need to have a LOT more nuclear power plants.

Talking about cleaner cars and making them more affordable.  “An investment that will lead to new industries and pay well.”

“America, now is not the time for small plans.  Now is the time to meet our moral obligation, to provide every child with a world class education, because it will take nothing less to compete in the global economy.”  OK,  sure everybody needs a good economy, but that’s something the states need to fix, not the federal government.

“If you commit to serving your community for your country, we will ensure you can afford college.”  What’s that supposed to mean?  That’s a pretty BROAD statement.

Talking about health care, and giving people the same plan as the one that Congress has.

“Stop those companies from discriminating those who are sick … those who need it most. … Now is the time to help families with paid sick days and paid leave.”

“Now is the time to change bankruptcy laws to protect those with pensions.”  OK, that I’ll agree with.

Talking about equal pay for men and women.

Talking about parents “to provide guidance and love for their children.  Individual responsibility and mutual responsibility.  That is the essence of America’s promise.”  OK, that’s good – individuals need to be responsible, but that applies to EVERYTHING, including health care and economic issues.

“I stood up and opposed this war [Iraq], knowing it would distract us from the real threats.”

“You know, John McCain says he will follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell, but he won’t even follow him to the caves where he lives.”  Bull crap.  McCain has made it clear that his number ONE goal is to capture Osama.

“John McCain stands alone in” defending this war – how the heck does he stand alone?  Our troops support the war, as does about half of the Senate and House!

The Democrats will restore the legacy that America once had – you mean, the legacy that we help countries who need it?

“I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against Al Qaeda, and Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan.”

“I will build new partnerships to defeat” the threats we face.  He says this, but he’s changed his policy on Iraq how many times now?

“These are the policies I will pursue, and we can afford debating them with John McCain.”  Then agree to a debate!

“These times are too serious.”

“I love this country, and so do you, and so does John McCain.”  That I can agree with.

The troops “have not served a red America, or a blue America.  They have served the United States of America.”  That was a GREAT line, and the crowd exploded.  That was a really great (and true) line.

“So I’ve got news for you John McCain: We all put our country first.”  Well, I’ve talked with people, and I know that’s not true.

“We don’t agree on abortion, but surely we can agree on reducing” abortions.  Bull crap.  End abortion, don’t just try to lower it.

Talking about guns, but I missed what he said.

Talking about gays being able to visit loved ones in hospitalized.  I agree with that, but that’s about the only right I think they should have that they don’t already.  (Marriage benefits are a PRIVILEGE, not a right – such as tax breaks, etc….).

“If you don’t have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone you should run from.”  Since you’ve voted present so many times and missed so many votes, are you talking about yourself?

“I realize that I’m not the likeliest candidate for this office.  I don’t fit the typical pedigree.”  So he’s just brought race into it?

“It’s not about me.  It’s about you.  It’s about you.  For 18 long months, you have stood up 1 by 1 and said enough to the politics of the past. … You have shown … that the chang we need doesn’t come FROM Washington, the change we need comes TO Washington.”  Well, then it must not be you, because you’re FROM Washington!

“I believe that as hard as it will be, the change is coming.”

Talking about giving better care to veterans – good, and keeping nukes out of our enemies hands – sure you will.

Talking about “Republicans who never thought they’d pick up a Democratic ballot, but they did.”  TRAITORS!

“You know, this country of ours has more wealth than any other nation…  We have the most powerful military on earth, but that’s not what makes us strong.”

“That promise is our greatest inheritance – the promise I make to my daughters when I tuck them in to bed. … The promise that led workers to picket lines … and women to vote.”  I missed what he said, but he tied it all in to Martin Luther King Jr.’s speech.

“America, we cannot turn back. … Not with so many children to educate. … Not with an economy to fix. … America we cannot turn back.  We cannot walk alone.”  Something about the promise – I couldn’t keep up with him.

“Thank you, God bless you and God bless the United States of America.”

And there you have it.  Honestly, I didn’t think it was THAT great.  It was good, but compared to Clinton’s and Biden’s, it wasn’t that good.  I’d give it a 7.5-8 out of 10.

He talked a LOT more about issues, which was his job, instead of getting people fired up, but it didn’t seem as charismatic as he could’ve been.  Perhaps it was that he was tired, but it wasn’t his best.

Done Analyzing,

Ranting Republican
:: :: :: :: ::

### Analysis of Senator Joe Biden’s Speech to the DNC

August 28, 2008

OK, again, like Bill Clinton’s I’m getting this up late due to some meetings I had, but here’s my analysis:

He’s starting out talking about being proud of his kids, and that the way they turned out made him a success.  Now he’s moved on to his wife.  Talking about how he wants to bring the country as far along as Bill Clinton did.

Talking about Hillary, who’s made history, and will continue to make history.

“I am truly honored to live in a country with the bravest warriors in the world.”  A good quote there, because it shows how supportive of the troops he is, whereas, up until now, McCain has been the one who appears as the ally to the troops.

“And I’m honored to represent … my state of Delaware.  Since I’ve never been called a man of few words, let me say this as simply as I can.  Yes, yes I accept your nomination to run and serve with Barack Obama, the next President of the United States of America.”

Started talking about his road to where he is now.  Talking about his dad and mom.  And the place just erupted in support of his mother.  He’s really a GREAT speaker.

His mom taught him, “You are defined by your sense of honor, and you’re redeemed by your loyalty. … Bravery lives in every heart, and it will be summoned.  Failure, failure at some point in your life is inevitable, but giving up is unforgivable.”  And now he’s talking about some funny stories from his childhood.  He’s such a down-to-earth speaker, but very inspirational.  He almost reminds me of Tony Snow a little bit, in terms of speech-making.

My mother’s creed is the American creed: “No one is better than you.  Everyone is your equal, and everyone is equal to you.”  Wow, that’s another great quote.

So far, the speech hasn’t had much issue substance, but it’s still been a good “American” speech.

“Today [the] American dream feels like it’s slipping away.”  Very good imagery.

Talking about bad economy, gas prices, and health care conversations he hears while taking the train from D.C. back to Delaware.

“That’s the America that George Bush has left us, and that’s the America we’ll continue if George, excuse me, John McCain is elected President of the United States of America.  Freudian slip.  Freudian slip.”  Well, you could tell that was scripted (he paused right before he said George), but it was still a good, funny, clever line.  And comparing McCain to Bush will be CRUCIAL to the Democrats in this election.

“Barack Obama … is the great American story.”

Talking about Obama going to South Chicago.

“Work is more than a paycheck.  It’s dignity.  It’s respect.  It’s about whether or not you can look your child in the eye and say, ‘We’re going to be alright.'”  Great quote.

Talking about Barack Obama helping people get health care in Illinois.  Talking about his accomplishments in Congress.

“You know, you can learn a lot about a man, campaigning with him, debating him, seeing how he reacts under pressure.  You learn about the strength of his mind, but even more importantly, you learn about the quality of his heart.  I watched how Barack touched people, how he inspired them, and I realized he had tapped into the oldest belief in America: we don’t have to accept the situation we cannot bear.  We have the power to change it.  And change it is exactly what Barack Obama will do.  That’s what he’ll do for this country.”

“You know, John McCain is my friend. … You hear that phrase used a lot in politics. … I mean it. … The personal courage and heroism demonstrated by John still amazes me, but I profoundly disagree with the direction John wants to take this country from Afghanistan to Iraq, from Amtrack to veterans.  John thinks that during the Bush years quote, ‘We’ve made great economic progress.’  I think it’s been abysmal.  And in the Senate, John has voted with President Bush 95%, and that is very hard to believe. … That’s not change, that’s more of the same.”  That’s good for the Democrats.  He showed that he’s friends with him personally, and that he respects him, but he’s comparing him with Bush, which is an image that will stick in the minds of voters.

Talking about oil, economy, and Iraq.

“The choice in this election is clear: these times require more than a good soldier, they require a wise leader.  A leader who can change.  The change everybody knows we need.  Barack Obama’s gonna deliver that change.”  Good quotes again – emphasizing change from Bush, but still showing respect for McCain.

Talking about Obama’s tax cut plans and alternative energy plans.

“Barack Obama knows that any country who out-teaches us today, will out-compete us tomorrow.”  Talking about better teachers and more affordable college.  A good issue to get young votes.

Talking about “affordable, accessible health care for every American.”  “Put security back in social security.”  Talking about equal pay for women.

Talking about the real center of the war on terrorism being in Afghanistan, not Iraq.  Talking about Russia challenging the freedom of Georgia.  That he and Obama will hold Russia accountable and help Georgia rebuild.  Well, if you’re opposed to Iraq, why are we going around helping Georgia?

“This administration’s policy ahas been an abysmal failure.”

Talking about Obama wanting to send more troops to Afghanistan while McCain said that we’ve already won there.  Talking about Al Qaeda reorganizing.  ”

John McCain was wrong, and Barack Obama was right.”  Talking about talks with Iran.  Saying that even the Bush administration now says we should talk to Iran.  Talking about timelines in Iraq, that McCain said stay indefinitely.  Now the Iraqi government is almost ready to set a date.  Barack Obama was right, and McCain was wrong.

Joe Biden: “I am here is for the [workers].”

“Millions of Americans have been knocked down, and this is the time as Americans together, we get back up, back up together.  Our debt to our parents and our grandparents is too great.  Our obligation to our children is too sacred.  These are extraordinary times.  This is an extraordinary election.  The American people are ready.  I am ready.  Barack is ready.  This is his time.  This is our time.  This is America’s time.  God bless America, and may God protect our troops.  Thank you very much.  Thank you.  Thank you very much.”

WOW!  Another great speech at the DNC!  Although I disagreed with most everything policy-wise, I think it was a great speech that went after John McCain and fired up the Democrats for the election.  Biden is a great speaker, and he did his job of getting everybody really excited for Obama’s speech tomorrow.  Biden brings a lot of enthusiasm to the table as well as experience, and although he may not help Barack a lot in any individual states, it’s speeches like that that make Biden a very likable guy, and a good guy to have on a campaign.

I’ll (hopefully) be doing a live blog of Barack’s acceptance speech tomorrow.

Done Analyzing,

Ranting Republican
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