1 Day to Go: Final Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247

Alright, so here’s my final prediction for the Presidential elections. None of my state-by-state predictions from last time changed, other than a percentages or for 2 states (Indiana and Montana).  I’ve also done predictions for the Senate and Gubernatorial elections.

The maps are provided courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas (and you can find the most updated version of my prediction on that website here). The colors on this website are switched from the normal colors (and I’m too lazy to switch them back to the normal colors – but back in the 1980s, these colors were the colors that the media used).

Alright, on to the predictions…

Obama – 291
McCain – 247

So, the states where you might disagree with my position:

  • Ohio: As the current trand of the past week keeps up, it’ll come out right about tied. I think McCain’s last minute blitz campaigning will help him pull out just BARELY on top.  Maybe I’m just too optimistic, but I see McCain winning here.
  • Misssouri, McCain has been leading recently, baring a few polls.
  • North Carolina: I was unsure last week, and I’m still unsure this week. I really haven’t changed my opinion on this.  I had been hoping to be able to take it out of the toss-up category, but I can’t do it for either McCain or Obama.  I really struggled with this one.  It could honestly go eiher way.
  • Florida: Despite Obama’s recent lead in the polls, McCain has come back, and is trending toward taking the lead by tomorrow (and he’s already taken the lead according to some polls).
  • Indiana: I know some polls have shown Obama leading, but I just don’t see it happening tomorrow.

Now, the map indicating the confidence that I have that my prediction is right:

Obama – 291
McCain – 185
Tossup – 62

Now, how has this map changed since my last map? Here’s a chart of the changes:

State

Previous

Current

Reasoning

IN

R40L

R50L

It looks like McCain will reach 50% here.

MT

R50S

R50L

Obama is catching up here, but I don’t think he’ll pull off a win.

So, again, at this point, I think it’s gonna take a small miracle for McCain to win, and I don’t see a small miracle happening tomorrow. All of the states that are toss-ups, I have going to McCain, so, in theory, if the toss-up states go to Obama, Obama would win 353-185.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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6 Responses to “1 Day to Go: Final Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247”

  1. ncarnes Says:

    I think its a little too early to call Ohio or Pennsylvania for Obama given the recent comments on Obama’s plan to bankrupt the coal industry. I think internal polling shows that it is teetering already, Obama may have been holding on to the lead (by a slim margin) in Pennsylvania, but his comments about bitter Americans clinging to their religion and guns added to being called racists and rednecks made it tighter than the media polls are showing, and this new development may hurt him even more.

    All I know is its going to be interesting tomorrow!

  2. Jason Gillman Says:

    VA, no matter the polling.. will be in the McCain camp. PA? good chance as well, and CO has enough indies to make it happen. McCain 300-312

  3. inkslwc Says:

    Jason, you’re a heck of a lot more optimistic than I am. I sure hope you’re right.

  4. 1 Day to Go: Final Senate Prediction: Democrats Gain 7 Seats « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] Senate Prediction: Democrats Gain 7 Seats Here’s my Senate prediction. I already did my Presidential election prediction.  The colors ARE switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but […]

  5. 1 Day to Go: Final Gubernatorial Elections Prediction « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] Alright, this will finish out my prediction series for today, following my Presidential and Senate election predictions. Again, the colors are switched from what the normal media colors, […]

  6. ronanlyons Says:

    Jason is certainly very optimistic! I would have thought 280 looks like McCain’s upper limit, although I could be wrong. Obama 310-315.

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