4 Days Away: Gubernatorial Elections Prediction

Alright, this will finish out my prediction series for today, following my Presidential and Senate election predictions.  Again, the colors are switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it.  The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here.  On to the predictions…

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Democrats: 6 (+1)
Republicans: 5 (-1)
Light gray indicates states with no Gubernatorial races

So, some of the states where you may disagree with my prediction:

  • North Carolina: Pat McCroy (R) had looked like she was going to overtake Bev Perdue (D), but Perdue has begun to come back in the polls, and I think she’s going to be able to hang on and win.  This could change by my next prediction (since it’s still a toss-up in my prediction), but I don’t think it will.
  • Washington: Last time I had it going to Christine Gregoire (D), the incumbent, but a toss-up.  Today, I’m pretty confident that it’ll stay in her hands.  Dino Rossi hasn’t led / been tied since early October, and I just don’t see Rossi taking the lead.  Interestingly, over the last few days Rossi has closed the gap that had opened up about 7 days ago.  By Monday, I may have to change it back to a toss-up, but as of now, I’m fairly confident in my prediction.

Now, on to my map shsowing my confidence in my predictions:

Democrats: 5 (+1)
Republicans: 5 (-1)
Tossup: 1

Light gray indicates states with no Gubernatorial races

So, there we go.  The Republicans are going to lose 1 Governor position (Missouri), but may have the opportunity to pick one up in North Carolina.  I guess we can’t rule out a small miracle in Washington, but I don’t see the Rossi winning there.  I’ll have a final prediction on Monday.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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One Response to “4 Days Away: Gubernatorial Elections Prediction”

  1. 4 Days to Go: Senate Prediction: Democrats Gain 6 Seats « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] P.M. « 4 Days to Go: My Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247 4 Days Away: Gubernatorial Elections Prediction […]

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