4 Days to Go: My Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247

Alright, so last Tuesday, I did a prediction for the Presidential election, predicting an Obama with victory of 286-252, and said I’d update it this Tuesday.  Well, I got a little busy, but here’s my updated prediction.  I’ve also done a prediction for the Senate and Gubernatorial elections.

The maps are provided courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas (and you can find the most updated version of my prediction on that website here).  The colors on this website are switched from the normal colors (and I’m too lazy to switch them back to the normal colors – but back in the 1980s, these colors were the colors that the  media used). 

Alright, on to the predictions…

Obama – 291
McCain – 247

So, the states where you might disagree with my position:

  • Ohio: As the current trand of the past week keeps up, it’ll come out right about tied.  I think McCain’s last minute blitz campaigning will help him pull out just BARELY on top.
  • Misssouri, McCain has been leading recently, baring a few polls.
  • North Carolina: I was unsure last week, and I’m still unsure this week.  I really haven’t changed my opinion on this.  I’ll make a hopefully more final decision when I do my final prediction on Monday.  As of now, I think it’ll just barely go to McCain.
  • Florida: Despite Obama’s recent lead in the polls, I think McCain will come back and win here, but if Obama continues to increase his lead, I’ll switch it over to him.

Now, the map indicating the confidence that I have that my prediction is right:

Obama – 291
McCain – 185
Tossup – 62

Now, how has this map changed since my last map? Here’s a chart of the changes:

State

Previous

Current

Reasoning

AK

R60S

R50S

Doesn’t look like McCain will reach 60%.

AZ

R60S

R50S

Doesn’t look like McCain will reach 60%

CA

D50S

D60S

Looks like Obama will manage to reach 60% here.

DE

D50S

D60S

Looks like Obama will manage to reach 60% here.

IN

R50S

D40L

More and more polls are coming out showing that Indiana is going to go to Obama.  I’m not exactly 100% sure yet, but it’s looking like it’ll be decently hard for McCain to come back and be able to win here.

NV

R40T

D50L

Again, like Indiana, the polls just don’t look like McCain will win here.  Originally, I was predicting a declaration of Obama’s victory early in the night and thought that less Obama supporters in Nevada would show up, but Obama has now garnered enough support here in Nevada, that an early victory declaration won’t give McCain a victory in Nevada.

PA

D50S

D50L

Originally, this looked really strong for Obama, but then all 4 candidates (President and VP) headed to Pennsylvania to campaign, which made me suspicious as to Obama’s strength there.  Combined with a blitz of campaigning here on McCain’s part plus Representative John Murtha’s comments about West Pennsylvania, I’m switching this over to the “Lean” category, but I’m still confident that Obama will win.

TN

R60S

R50S

Doesn’t look like McCain will reach 60%.

ME CD1

D50S

D60S

Based on recent polls that broke down demographic areas of the state, it looks like Obama will reach 60% here, but I don’t think he will in District 2 or on a statewide level.

So, at this point, I think it’ll take a small miracle for McCain to win.  All of the states that are toss-ups, I have going to McCain, so, in theory, if the toss-up states go to Obama, Obama would win 353-185.

I’ll do a final prediction on Monday, so check back for my final prediction.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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4 Responses to “4 Days to Go: My Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247”

  1. anonymous Says:

    None of this is going to help Obama if he wins and then there is a constitutional crisis over his eligibility. Obama refuses to produce his “vault” certificate and this issue will not go away after the election.

    The birth certificate posted on the web is computer generated. it is based upon a certificate signed by a doctor/hospital. To end all of these lawsuits and speculation, you would think that Obama would just release the “vault” certificate and put this matter to a rest. Obama has refused and continues to refuse. At first I thought it might be because his parents weren’t married. I looked at the Hawaii Department of Health website and learned why:

    From 1911 to 1972, Hawaii permitted people over the age of one year to apply for a birth certificate. Because Hawaii was a terrority until 1959, many people were born at home; and, did not have a birth certificate from a hospital. To deal with this problem, Hawaii permitted a person over the age of one year (or his parent) to ask Hawaii to register the birth by an affidavit stating that the child was born at home.

    That means if a child/person was not born in a hospital, they could ask the State of Hawaii to issue an birth certificate based upon an affidavit.

    Thus, Obama’s mom or maternal grandmother could have applied for his birth certificate a year or more after his birth by submitting an affidavit. ?The birth certificate would be issued, and the affidavit would be the “vault certificate” backing it up. Obama’s Kenyan grandmother insists that she was present when Obama was born. It is possible that Obama was born abroad and that his mom and grandmother wanted to make sure that he wouldn’t have a problem in the US and applied for a birth certificate much later, claiming that he was born at home.

    Why would Obama run if this was the case? Other politicians do it all the time. Look at Gov Spitzer of NY – knew he had a problem with prostitutes – ran for governor anyway; Gov McGreevy of NJ – knew he had a problem with being gay and going to truckstops – ran anyway; look at John Edwards – knew he had a love child – ran anyway for nomination!

  2. 4 Days to Go: Senate Prediction: Democrats Gain 6 Seats « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] Republican Ranting A blog that I post on whenever I see something that makes me want to go off on a Republican (Libertarian every once in a while) rant. I will cover stories from all over the nation and world, but I will try to cover as many stories about my home state of Michigan as I can (I’ll also talk a lot about Texas, because Texas is awesome!). Note, all times are for the Eastern time zone, daylight savings time when applicable, so stop leaving comments that it’s only noon in California and I said 3:00 P.M. « 4 Days to Go: My Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247 […]

  3. 4 Days Away: Gubernatorial Elections Prediction « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] Alright, this will finish out my prediction series for today, following my Presidential and Senate election predictions.  Again, the colors are switched from what the normal media […]

  4. 1 Day to Go: Final Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247 « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] my final prediction for the Presidential elections. None of my state-by-state predictions from last time changed, other than a percentages or for 2 states (Indiana and […]

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