Well, just like the Presidential prediction, here are my predictions for the Senate races (percentages is the first map, with confidence being the second map). The colors ARE switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it. The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here. On to the predictions…
* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat
Democrats: 16 (+4)
Republicans: 19 (-4)
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races
First, a note about Wyoming and Mississippi:
- Wyoming has 2 races, Michael Enzi (R) against Chris Rothfuss (D) and John Barasso (R) against Nick Carter (D). I expect both Republicans to win with results around 63%.
- Mississippi has 2 races. The maps are predictions for Thad Cochran (R) against Erik Fleming (D). In the election between Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D), I expect Wicker to win with around 51%, a much closer race than the other.
So, let’s have a little discussion about the states that some people might disagree with me over:
- Arkansas: Mark Pryor is unopposed by a Republican. Rebekah Kennedy (Green) is the only opponent.
- Alaska: As much as I dislike him, and as much as he’s done wrong, I don’t see Alaskans voting “Uncle Ted” out of office.
- Minnesota: Had it not been for recent polls showing Norm Coleman ahead again, I would’ve given this to Al Franken. It could easily go back before the election though.
- North Carolina: I don’t see voters voting Elizabeth Dole out. They may say so in the polls now, but I think she’ll win.
- Oregon: Probably the toughest call I had to make. I only gave it to Gordon Smith because he’s been trending upward in the polls, but by next week, if he’s not ahead, I’ll be switching this over to Jeff Merkley.
Now, my confidence map:
So, again, like my Presidential prediction, I’ll be updating this one next Tuesday, if not before.
The Democrats could win as many as 8 new seats, but I don’t see them winning any more than maybe 6.
Tags: 2008 Election, Al Franken, Alaska, Arkansas, Candidate, Chris Rothfuss, Democrat, Democrats, Election, Elections, Elizabeth Dole, Erik Fleming, General Election, Gordon Smith, Jeff Merkley, John Barasso, Mark Pryor, Michael Enzi, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nick Carter, Norm Coleman, North Carolina, Oregon, Politics, Poll, Rebekah Kennedy, Republican, Republicans, Roger Wicker, Ronnie Musgrove, Senate, Senator, Ted Stevens, Thad Cochran, Wyoming