2 Weeks Away: My Prediction for the Presidential Election: Obama 286, McCain 252

Alright, I’ve decided that I’m going to do a prediction at least each Tuesday before the election (and then a final one on Monday the 3rd).  Here’s my prediction as of now.  The first map will be a prediction of the percentage points, and the second map will be my confidence in who will win that state.  Now, I know that my map has Obama lower than a lot of the maps circulating right now, but here’s why.  I question the number of Obama supporters in states like Ohio and Nevada that will actually come out.  I tried to leave as few toss-up states as I could, but there are just some that I’m not confident enough to call.  The maps are provided courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas (and you can find the most updated version of my prediction on that website here).  Alright, on to the predictions…

Oh, one other thing I forgot – the colors on this website are switched from the normal colors (and I’m too lazy to switch them back to the normal colors – but back in the 1980s, these colors were the colors that the  media used).

 

So, the states that differ from current polls:

  • Nevada: I don’t see it going for Obama.  I just think that as the media shows Obama taking Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, it’ll become pretty apparent that Obama has won, and less of his supporters will come out.  McCain supporters, still hoping for a miracle will turn out.
  • Ohio: Looking at trend lines, McCain should pull out ahead by 1%-2%.
  • Missouri: Same as Ohio.
  • North Carolina: Of all the states that I may switch by next Tuesday, this is at the top of the list.  Right now, I just don’t see North Carolina voting for Obama.  I think some racism will come into play, and I think McCain may sqeak through.  Again, if I had to pick one state to change, it be North Carolina.
  • Florida: Also trending McCain.

Now, my confidence:

Alright, so even though I have Obama winning by only 34 Electoral Votes, the final result could be anywhere between Obama  286-353, McCain 252-185.

Most likely, if my prediction does change, it’ll be North Carolina which would bring the total up to Obama 301, McCain 237.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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8 Responses to “2 Weeks Away: My Prediction for the Presidential Election: Obama 286, McCain 252”

  1. RandomUser Says:

    Is there some reason you switch the red and blue from other prediction sites?

  2. inkslwc Says:

    Because the guy who designed that website (Dave Leip) used the system that the media used back in the 1980s when he started keeping track of elections. Now, it would just take too much to switch them over, so we use blue as Republican and red as Democrats. For proof that this is the CORRECT version, see this picture of the 1984 news map: http://i49.photobucket.com/albums/f292/kk218/bluestateredstate.png

  3. 2 Weeks Away: Senate Prediction: Democrats Gain 4 Seats « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] Republican Ranting A blog that I post on whenever I see something that makes me want to go off on a Republican (Libertarian every once in a while) rant. I will cover stories from all over the nation and world, but I will try to cover as many stories about my home state of Michigan as I can (I’ll also talk a lot about Texas, because Texas is awesome!). Note, all times are for the Eastern time zone, daylight savings time when applicable, so stop leaving comments that it’s only noon in California and I said 3:00 P.M. « 2 Weeks Away: My Prediction for the Presidential Election: Obama 286, McCain 252 […]

  4. 2 Weeks Away: Gubernatorial Elections Prediction « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] Alright, this will finish out my prediction series for today, following my Presidential and Senate election predictions.  Again, the colors are switched from what the normal media […]

  5. 4 Days to Go: My Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247 « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] My Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247 Alright, so last Tuesday, I did a prediction for the Presidential election, predicting an Obama with victory of 286-252, and said I’d update it this Tuesday.  Well, I […]

  6. Tyler Says:

    Interesting analysis.

    We are wondering if you’d be interested in submitting your prediction on our prediction tracker:

    http://www.blables.com/us_election_prediction/

    It shows an aggregate chart displaying the most popular guess. You can compare your guess to others as well as keep track of the trends.

    Feel free to share with friends and family.

    Enjoy and have a great election!

    Tyler
    —————-
    Blables.com – Makes You Think

  7. inkslwc Says:

    Thanks – I’ll add that list of websites to do predictions on.

  8. inkslwc Says:

    Thanks – I’ll add that list of websites to do predictions on.

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