Alright, I’ve decided that I’m going to do a prediction at least each Tuesday before the election (and then a final one on Monday the 3rd). Here’s my prediction as of now. The first map will be a prediction of the percentage points, and the second map will be my confidence in who will win that state. Now, I know that my map has Obama lower than a lot of the maps circulating right now, but here’s why. I question the number of Obama supporters in states like Ohio and Nevada that will actually come out. I tried to leave as few toss-up states as I could, but there are just some that I’m not confident enough to call. The maps are provided courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas (and you can find the most updated version of my prediction on that website here). Alright, on to the predictions…
Oh, one other thing I forgot – the colors on this website are switched from the normal colors (and I’m too lazy to switch them back to the normal colors – but back in the 1980s, these colors were the colors that the media used).
So, the states that differ from current polls:
- Nevada: I don’t see it going for Obama. I just think that as the media shows Obama taking Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, it’ll become pretty apparent that Obama has won, and less of his supporters will come out. McCain supporters, still hoping for a miracle will turn out.
- Ohio: Looking at trend lines, McCain should pull out ahead by 1%-2%.
- Missouri: Same as Ohio.
- North Carolina: Of all the states that I may switch by next Tuesday, this is at the top of the list. Right now, I just don’t see North Carolina voting for Obama. I think some racism will come into play, and I think McCain may sqeak through. Again, if I had to pick one state to change, it be North Carolina.
- Florida: Also trending McCain.
Now, my confidence:
Alright, so even though I have Obama winning by only 34 Electoral Votes, the final result could be anywhere between Obama 286-353, McCain 252-185.
Most likely, if my prediction does change, it’ll be North Carolina which would bring the total up to Obama 301, McCain 237.
Tags: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Candidate, Democrat, Election, Electoral College, Electoral Votes, Florida, General Election, John McCain, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Politics, Poll, Republican