2 Weeks Away: Gubernatorial Elections Prediction

Alright, this will finish out my prediction series for today, following my Presidential and Senate election predictions.  Again, the colors are switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it.  The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here.  On to the predictions…

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Democrats: 6 (+1) [net gain of 0]
Republicans: 5 (+1) [net gain of 0]
Light gray indicates states with no Gubernatorial races

Now, on to discussion of states where you may disagree with me:

  • North Carolina: It’s all tied up in the polls right now.  Bev Perdue (D) had been leading, but now Pat McCroy (R) has caught up.  It’s looking like he’s right about to statistically overtake her, but I’ll wait a week until I take anything out of the toss-up category.  The next couple of polls that come out will be crucial in gauging North Carolina.
  • Washington: I continue to switch this one back and forth.  At the time of my last prediction, Dino Rossi (R) had been leading for a month, but now Christine Greggoire (D), the incumbent, is back in the lead, and I think she’s going to manage to stay there through election day.  Again, anything could happen here, but I’ll probably be able to slide her over to the Lean Democrat category next week.

Really quick, here’s my confidence map:

Overall, I’m pretty confident that I’ll be able to knock both of these toss-up states into the Lean columns next week without having to change anything, but who knows what could happen.

Thanks for reading, and come back next week for a whole set of new and updated predictions.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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One Response to “2 Weeks Away: Gubernatorial Elections Prediction”

  1. Anna Says:

    I’d somewhat have to disagree with your predictions on WA state’s governor race. I live in the lovely state, and from what I’ve seen, and the people I’ve talked to, the current feeling is leaning towards Rossi. A lot of people are buying the “Time for Change” slogan of both Obama and Rossi’s campaigns and voting for the two of them just because they want something different.

    I think that’s stupid, but that’s just me. People should vote for the man/woman who they agree with on all the issues (or at least the major issues) not just who makes the best campaign slogans, promises, ads, banners, etc. Ok that’s MY rant.🙂

    I enjoy reading your blog. Don’t necesarially agree with everything, but it’s very well thought through and put together. Keep up the good work.

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