Archive for October, 2008

4 Days to Go: Senate Prediction: Democrats Gain 6 Seats

October 31, 2008

Here’s my Senate prediction.  I already did my Presidential election prediction as well as the Gubernatorial Elections prediction.  The colors ARE switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it.  The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here.  On to the predictions…

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Democrats: 16 (+6)
Republicans: 19 (-6)
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races

First, a note about Wyoming and Mississippi:

  • Wyoming has 2 races, Michael Enzi (R) against Chris Rothfuss (D) and John Barasso (R) against Nick Carter (D). I expect both Republicans to win with results around 63%.
  • Mississippi has 2 races. The maps are predictions for Thad Cochran (R) against Erik Fleming (D). In the election between Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D), I expect Wicker to win with around 51%, a much closer race than the other.

Alright, so let’s look at the states where people may disagree with me:

  • Arkansas: Mark Pryor is unopposed by a Republican.  Rebekah Kennedy (Green) is the only opponent, so that’s why I have it so high.  It’s not a mistake.
  • Alaska: Last prediction, I had it going to “Uncle Ted” Stevens.  Then, the jury found him guilty.  I changed my prediction on the U.S. Election Atlas website, but didn’t repost a prediction here (although I did write a blog post saying that Mark Begich would win).  Then, I started thinking, and I think Stevens will pull it off.  I know the polls disagree (but the Research 2000 poll showing him down 22% is just wrong), but I don’t see Alaskans voting out Uncle Ted.
  • Minnesota: Again, like last time, for every poll that comes out showing Franken ahead, a poll comes out showing Coleman ahead by the same amount.  Right now, it’s just too close to call, so I’ll keep it where I had it last week.

Now, the map indicating the confidence that I have that my prediction is right:

Democrats: 16 (+5)
Republicans: 19 (-5)
Tossup: 3
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races

Alright, so what changes did I make since last time, and why?  Here they are:

State

Previous

Current

Reasoning

AK

D50L

R50T

I don’t think they’ll vote “Uncle Ted” out.

IA

D50S

D60S

It looks like Tom Harkin will reach 60% here.

KY

R50L

R50S

Mitch McConnell seems to be making a stronger comeback, back from when it was looking like a close race.  I think he’s now safe for sure.

NE

R60S

R50S

I think this an oversight the first time I did the predictions.

NM

D60S

D50S

I think Steve Pearce (R) has gained enough support that he’ll keep Tom Udall (D) from getting above 60%.

NC

R50T

D50T

Elizabeth Dole’s “Godless” attack ad against Kay Hagan was found out to be less than true.  I think there’ll be big backlash against Dole, and I think it’ll go to Hagan, but it is still a little bit too close to call in my opinion.

OR

R40T

D50S

Like I said last week, if Gordon Smith (R) didn’t pull ahead (as he was looking like he might), I was going to slide it over to Jeff Merkley, and that’s what I did.

By Monday, when I do my final update, I should be able to take North Carolina out of the toss-up category, and if more polls come out with Begich leading by a huge margin in Alaska, I’ll switch it back to Begich.  I don’t think I’ll be able to take Minnesota out of the toss-up category, but Al Franken’s latest campaign ad controversy may help Coleman, and I may be able to slide it to the “Lean” category.

Come back here on Monday for my final prediction.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican

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4 Days to Go: My Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247

October 31, 2008

Alright, so last Tuesday, I did a prediction for the Presidential election, predicting an Obama with victory of 286-252, and said I’d update it this Tuesday.  Well, I got a little busy, but here’s my updated prediction.  I’ve also done a prediction for the Senate and Gubernatorial elections.

The maps are provided courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas (and you can find the most updated version of my prediction on that website here).  The colors on this website are switched from the normal colors (and I’m too lazy to switch them back to the normal colors – but back in the 1980s, these colors were the colors that the  media used). 

Alright, on to the predictions…

Obama – 291
McCain – 247

So, the states where you might disagree with my position:

  • Ohio: As the current trand of the past week keeps up, it’ll come out right about tied.  I think McCain’s last minute blitz campaigning will help him pull out just BARELY on top.
  • Misssouri, McCain has been leading recently, baring a few polls.
  • North Carolina: I was unsure last week, and I’m still unsure this week.  I really haven’t changed my opinion on this.  I’ll make a hopefully more final decision when I do my final prediction on Monday.  As of now, I think it’ll just barely go to McCain.
  • Florida: Despite Obama’s recent lead in the polls, I think McCain will come back and win here, but if Obama continues to increase his lead, I’ll switch it over to him.

Now, the map indicating the confidence that I have that my prediction is right:

Obama – 291
McCain – 185
Tossup – 62

Now, how has this map changed since my last map? Here’s a chart of the changes:

State

Previous

Current

Reasoning

AK

R60S

R50S

Doesn’t look like McCain will reach 60%.

AZ

R60S

R50S

Doesn’t look like McCain will reach 60%

CA

D50S

D60S

Looks like Obama will manage to reach 60% here.

DE

D50S

D60S

Looks like Obama will manage to reach 60% here.

IN

R50S

D40L

More and more polls are coming out showing that Indiana is going to go to Obama.  I’m not exactly 100% sure yet, but it’s looking like it’ll be decently hard for McCain to come back and be able to win here.

NV

R40T

D50L

Again, like Indiana, the polls just don’t look like McCain will win here.  Originally, I was predicting a declaration of Obama’s victory early in the night and thought that less Obama supporters in Nevada would show up, but Obama has now garnered enough support here in Nevada, that an early victory declaration won’t give McCain a victory in Nevada.

PA

D50S

D50L

Originally, this looked really strong for Obama, but then all 4 candidates (President and VP) headed to Pennsylvania to campaign, which made me suspicious as to Obama’s strength there.  Combined with a blitz of campaigning here on McCain’s part plus Representative John Murtha’s comments about West Pennsylvania, I’m switching this over to the “Lean” category, but I’m still confident that Obama will win.

TN

R60S

R50S

Doesn’t look like McCain will reach 60%.

ME CD1

D50S

D60S

Based on recent polls that broke down demographic areas of the state, it looks like Obama will reach 60% here, but I don’t think he will in District 2 or on a statewide level.

So, at this point, I think it’ll take a small miracle for McCain to win.  All of the states that are toss-ups, I have going to McCain, so, in theory, if the toss-up states go to Obama, Obama would win 353-185.

I’ll do a final prediction on Monday, so check back for my final prediction.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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Happy Halloween!

October 31, 2008
Googles Halloween Logo - hey, they dont mind some extra advertisement!

Google's Halloween Logo - hey, they don't mind some extra advertisement!

Happy Halloween everybody!  Just 4 more months until candy corn is 82% off!  (No, seriously, I got candy corn for 82% off in February once – it was awesome.  I totally love candy corn.)

If you’re a kid reading this, remember to stay safe tonight, and send all of your Snickers bars to me (you won’t like them anyway).

If you’re a parent, remember to make sure that your kids are staying safe tonight, and send all of your extra Snickers bars to me (you don’t want them laying around the house – it’s bad for your diet, and your kids have enough candy already).

If you’re somebody driving around tonight, make sure you be careful.  You don’t have to go 25 down a side street, and there’s no reason for you to go MORE than that.  Just make sure you’re watching out for kids.

If you’re somebody giving out candy, make sure you save your Snickers bars for me.

If your a police officer, I have the utmost respect for you, and I wish you a safe evening, and good luck enforcing the curfews tonight.  I hope that your night goes by without any problems.

To anybody that I missed: Happy Halloween (and send me your Snickers – I don’t know why – I just decided to start throwing that into this blog post).

Done Celebrating,

Ranting Republican
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Effigy of Sarah Palin Hanging by a Noose is Despicable, but Legal

October 28, 2008

I’ve seen some pretty weird Halloween decorations before, but this one probably tops them all.  In West Hollywood, California, Chad Michael Morisette has put up an effigy of Sarah Palin hanging by a noose with John McCain up on the chimeny with flames coming out of it (as well as skeletons and spider webs on other areas of the house).

Well, this made some people very unhappy and even sparked an investigation the FBI as well as the Los Angles Police Department.

The LAPD has determined that this doesn’t rise to the level of hate crime (I don’t remember if the FBI has finished its investigation).

Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department spokesman Steve Whitmore told reporters, “I’m not defending this; I’m not criticizing it.  It doesn’t rise to the level of hate crime.  Now, if there was a crime against bad taste–.”  When asked about an effigy of Barack Obama, he replied, “That adds a whole other social, historical hate aspect to the display, and that is embedded in the consciousness of the country [but I am not sure that it would be a hate crime].  It would be ill-advised of anybody to speculate on that.”

Morisette claims that it’s  all in fun, saying, “It should be seen as art, and as within the month of October.  It’s Halloween, it’s time to be scary, it’s time to be spooky.”

The Mayor of West Hollywood, Jeffrey Prang, told reporters, “While these residents have the legal right to display Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin in effigy, I strongly oppose political speech that references violence–real or perceived.  I urge these residents to take down their display and find more constructive ways to express their opinion.”

I agree with the Mayor here.  The point of a hate crime is that it has to threaten violence, or be violence toward a person because of discrimination (and hate crime isn’t a real legal term, but it’s easier to just say “hate crime”.  For the law that defines hate crimes, see U.S. Federal Code Title 18, Part 1, Chapter 13, § 245).  There is no threat of violence here.  Now, if this were done of Obama, I would say the same thing.  If it’s in a Halloween decoration, it’s generally not intended as a violent threat (as the sheriff’s department found in its investigation).  As long as it’s not being done to encourage violence for racist reasons, it’s not a hate crime.

So, I think this was over the line, but it’s still protected as free speech by the First Amendment.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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Alaska Senator Ted Stevens Found Guilty on All Counts of Making False Statements; Hello Senator Mark Begich

October 27, 2008
Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) leaves the court after hearing the guilty verdict.

Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) leaves the court after hearing the guilty verdict.

Well, the jury of 8 women and 4 men has deliberated and has come back to find Senator Stevens (R-AK) guilty on all 7 counts of making false statements (lying on U.S. Senate financial disclosure forms for 1999-2006).

Before entering the courtroom, Stevens told reporters, “Put this down.  I am not stepping down.  I’m going to run through, and I’m going to win this election.”  After hearing the verdict, he allegedly told his wife, Catherine, “It’s not over yet.”

Patti Higgins, the chairwoman of the Alaska Democratic Party released a statement, saying, “He knew what he was doing was wrong, but he did it anyway and lied to Alaskans about it.  Alaskans deserve better from their public officials.  It’s time for us to elect an ethical and honest senator who will move this state forward.”

Judge Emmet Sullivan has not yet set a date for sentencing, but said that it would be after February.  He will then face up to 5 years in prison for each charge; however, it is not expected that he will receive that harsh of a sentence.  Senator Stevens is expected to appeal the verdict, and I honestly think he’ll win his appeal.  I’m surprised that the prosecution was able to pull off a comeback after making numerous mistakes, including a typo in their indictment where their evidence clearly contradicted their accusation.

President Bush could also pardon Senator Stevens.

Although I think he’ll (unfortunately) win his court battle, I think he has lost his chances at retaining his Senate seat.  Say hello to Senator Mark Begich.  Now, if by some weird chance he does win, and then is removed, or the Senate expels him before the election, or he resigns (right – like that’ll happen), Governor Palin would replace him (if he left before Inauguration Day.  If she won the VP seat and he left after that, the new Governor would appoint the next Senator).

I’m sad to see Senator Stevens go like this, but he was a crook, and he got caught, and it’s time for him to go now.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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Cop Arresting Cameraman for Filming Peaceful Protest: “I Can Do Whatever I Want”

October 27, 2008

I was looking through some news stories and came across this story from WCBS (CBS 2) in Newark, New Jersey (WCBS is out of New York City).  Watch the video and I’ll have some analysis below:

Whoa!  The most disturbing part of that was the police officer’s comment, “I can do whatever I want” in response to the reporter, Christine Sloan, saying, “You can’t arrest him.”  (I don’t have the officer’s name – if somebody could find it, that’d be awesome!)

After arresting the photographer, Jim Quodomine, the officer even threatened Sloan, saying, “[This is] none of your business.  Stay away or you’ll be sitting in the car.”

Latrice Smith, a witness of the incident, told WCBS, “He went to put the camera down.  Before he had the opportunity to [do so], the police officer came and knocked it down. … [The officer] just started grabbing him, putting handcuffs on him, grabbed him by the neck.  It was out of control for no reason.”

Another witness told WCBS, “I couldn’t believe how they grabbed him.”

Kudos to Councilwoman Mildred Crump for standing up for justice here.  The officer CLEARLY violated the the photographer’s First Amendment rights.  Hopefully the investigation goes through as Crump has demanded and the officer is fired.  I’m a Law and Order Conservative.  I can’t stand  criminals and I love police officers, but this guy clearly overstepped his bounds.  The cameraman was on public property, and thus had a right to videotape whatever he wanted (which is ALSO why it’s legal for the government to videotape YOU in public – it’s not invading your privacy – you’re out in public – just wanted to bring that up really quick).

This cop needs to be fired.

I’m honestly surprised that he still pressed charges against Quodonine for disorderly conduct.  I’m pretty sure that Quodonine will have those charges dismissed by the magisstrate (and if not, he’ll win an appeal).  If I were him, I would be outraged.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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Illinois City Bans Trick-or-Treating for Teenagers

October 27, 2008

Well, this is about the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard in a while.  Belleville, Illinois passed an ordinance last Monday that restricted trick-or-treating.  That sounds normal, right, most cities limit the time that kids can trick-or-treat.  But the city isn’t just limiting when; they’re also limiting who can trick-or-treat.  And it also limits the wearing of masks, to only Halloween (unless you’re under 12).

Here’s an overview of the ordinance (unfortunately, Belleville is a little slow in uploading their meeting minutes, and all they have right now is a copy of the agenda, so this isn’t the exact wording of the ordinance):

  • Limits trick-or-treating on Halloween from 5:00 P.M. until 8:30 P.M.
  • Bans anyone in above the 8th grade (anybody older than 13 or 14) from trick-or-treating on Halloween, unless they are a “special-needs” child, and then they must be accompanied by a parent or guardian.
  • Allows children age 12 and under to wear a mask and/or disguise any day of the year, but restricts anyone above 12 to being able to wear a mask and/or disguise only on Halloween.
  • Prohibits any and all child sex offenders from going to any event and/or holding any event for Halloween where any child (other than his/her own) will be present. Child sex offenders must also turn out their outside lights on Halloween night, and they are banned from handing out candy.

OK, so bullet points 1 and 4 I have no problem with.  It’s 2 and 3 that I have an issue with.

But before I go on, let me give you some quotes that Mayor Mark Eckert told reporters:

We believe that Halloween is for little children.  We just feel that we need to go that extra mile to protect the children.

We were hearing more and more about bigger kids knocking on doors after 9:00 at night and the people who lived in the homes were scared.  The seniors were especially scared.  They didn’t want to be the recipient of some kind of trick, but they didn’t want to open their doors late at night, either.

Sexual predators can’t have parties.  It’s not right, it’s wrong.  They lost that privilege.

OK, so I get the principle behind this, but here’s where you have a problem: Those teenagers out after 9:00 P.M. would be out past the overall curfew anyway, so they’d already be breaking the law.  What is the need for another law here?  If they’re out past 8:30, they can be arrested (I’m assuming that’s the punishment).  So that right there would solve your teenagers out late problem.  Banning trick-or-treating for anybody above the 8thgrade is simply ageism.  You cannot discriminate against somebody like this.  I’ll accept a curfew (although I have problems with those at times too), but to ban outright the practice of trick-or-treating for ANYBODY (other than felons who lose some rights when they’re convicted) is discrimination, and in my view, illegal!

Now, the mask/disguise ordinance.  You’re telling me that a 16-year-old kid can’t wear a mask outside at a Halloween party the night before Halloween (Devil’s Night if you live here in Detroit)?  Or what if a Star Trek convention comes to Belleville?  Are you telling me that masks aren’t allowed?  It’s ridiculous!  Unfortunately, without the ordinance I don’t have the city’s legal definition of “disguise” but would this apply to people dressed up as Santa Clause?  Are you going to haul away the Salvation Army Santa for being in a “disguise” on a day other than Halloween?  It’s dumb.  It restricts the Freedom of Speech (this isn’t a dress code in school we’re talking about here – this is just being out in PUBLIC generally!)!  It’s asinine, ridiculous, and it’s unconstitutional.

I hope somebody old goes out and trick-or treats, or wears a mask the day after Halloween so that this can be taken to court and overturned.  I’m a Law and Order Conservative – I abide by the laws.  I don’t speed.  I don’t drink underage.  I’ve never stolen a candy bar.  But when the law goes against Constitutional principles, it MUST be disobeyed so that it can be challenged in court, and this is one time where I say, “Break that law!”

Done Ranting

Ranting Republican
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It’s All Tied Up in Michigan’s 9th Congressional District!

October 23, 2008

Here’s my latest post on The Race for Michigan’s 9th District:

A poll that came out from Mitchell Research & Communications (done earlier in October) shows that the race for Michigan’s 9th Congressional district is all tied up at 43% each, which leaves 14% for undecideds and other candidates (who’ll probably get around 4-5%).  So that leaves around 10% still up for grabs.

To be honest, I never would have guessed that this race would be this close.  Which is why my plea to conservatives in Oakland County is more important now than ever: GET OUT AND VOTE!  I’ve hears some people say, “McCain pulled out, so my vote doesn’t matter anymore.”  Well, there’s 2 things wrong with that statement:

  1. You’re vote always matters.  I’ll give you 2 examples from my life: 1) Theresa Lannen, a friend of mine, ran for City Council a few years ago and won by ONE vote and 2) My grandfather, Clyde Inks, ran for school board back in the 60’s.  The original results said that he had lost by 8, but after a recount, he was found to be the winner by 2 votes.  So don’t go out and tell me that your vote doesn’t matter.  It does.
  2. There are VERY important races other than the race for President.  In this case, the Congressional race is HUGE.  Joe Knollenberg has been one of the best Representatives that Oakland County and Michigan has ever had, and to lose him because of a lack of voter turnout would just be an INSULT to him for all the service that he has given to Oakland County and the entire state.

If Oakland County falls, whether that be Representative Knollenberg or the County Commission, the state will no longer be a purple state.  Heck, we’re barely considered purple now.  I was just at a forum last night, and the subject was brought up, “Are we a blue state now.”  The majority of the panel said we probably were, but the point was brought up that we still have a Republican delegation in the House, and we still have a couple of large Republican areas (sure you still have Ottawa and Kent Counties, but combined, they’re only a little more than half as big as Oakland).

If Oakland slips fully into the hands of the Democrats, we will see this state go from falling in a recession to plumetting into pure disaster.  The only good thing that may come from that is the election of a Republican governor in 2010, but do we really want our state to have to flat line before we achieve that?  Absolutely not.

So, what can you do?  Well, I’m glad you asked.

  1. Donate to the campaign, right at Joe’s website.
  2. Sign up to volunteer, right at his website.  But don’t just stop there.  Get out and do stuff.
  3. Go pick up a bumper sticker and yard sign.  Show people who you’re supporting.  Show them how important this election is to you.  Stand up for Oakland County.  Stand up for this state.  Stand up for your ideals.  Stand up for principles.  Stand up for what you believe.  Stand up and fight.  Don’t sit idly by and just let this election happen.  Take a stand, and don’t back down.
  4. Get out and vote.  If you don’t do this, it’s a smack in the face to everybody who has worked so hard to keep the 9th District in the hands of a good conservative representative.  But more importantly, it’s a smack in the face to those who have sacrificed to guarantee that right for you.  It’s a smack in the face to our troops who have died defending that right.

With your help, Representative Knollenberg can win this election.  It may not be easy, but I have confidence that he will pull win.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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MoveOn.Org Launches Get Out the Vote Ad About Your Vote Counting

October 22, 2008

So, today I got an e-mail from MoveOn.org (I signed up for their mailing list months ago for some reason – I don’t even remember why), and they sent me a link to this video: Obama’s Loss Traced To….

So, my thoughts: It’s a clever ad.  And it’s definitely meant to appeal to college students, who may not turn out to vote.  In that regard, it’s a successful ad.  But when it comes to possibly offending other undecided voters, they made some risky moves.

The whole bit where the elderly woman (who freakishly resembles my great aunt) says, “And this mother-f***king, c**k-sucking, lazy f**k couldn’t get out of bed in time to vote,” is just vulgar and ridiculous.  To me, that seems like a turn-off to moderates and moderate/conservatives who are thinking about voting for Obama.  And the whole part where the foreign guy is worried about McCain bombing his goats is just ridiculous (but funny).

Also, using President Bush’s quote toward a military person thanking them for their service and twisting it was offensive to me, because it mocks the sacrifice that our troops have given.

And for the record, yes, I am a Factor viewer.  I love you Bill!

So, overall, I think it would’ve been a good ad that they could’ve sent around more, but by making it too vulgar, they limited it to college students only.  I think it’ll turn off as many people as it actually influences.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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Michigan Restaurant Offers Free Pizza for McCain Signs

October 22, 2008

Alright, so I saw this clip from my hometown news station, FOX 2 from Detroit.  Watch the video and I’ll talk about it below:

Alright, so you have Salvatore’s Pizzeria (Warren, Michigan) who’s offering free pizza to people who bring in yard signs.  Diana Franzoni, the owner claims that she just wants people to turn in their signs since McCain left the state.  OK, people aren’t going to do that.  Honestly though, if I worked for the Republican party, I’d be doing that as a means to get food for my campaign headquarters.  The state party would save so much money doing that that they could’ve cut down rent for the McCain stuff that’s still in Michigan.  If I were in the McCain campaign – I’d give my volunteers a set of 1,000 signs, which would be $1,000-$2,000, but it’d absolutely kill Salvatore’s.

Although I think the restaurant is encouraging people to steal signs, I don’t think they can or should be prosecuted.  They’ve done nothing wrong.  If they were saying, “Go steal signs,” I’d say we should prosecute them.

Who should be prosecuted are the people who steal the signs, like the teenager they talked about.  I don’t care WHO you are.  If you steal a yard sign, that is a federal crime, and you need to be prosecuted.  And I’m talking to you people who steal Obama signs too – you’re committing a federal crime, and you deserve to be punished just as much as the kid who stole the McCain sign.  If I ever catch somebody stealing one of my signs, you can be sure he/she’ll be prosecuted.

EDIT: I just had a friend bring up this possibility: Charge the restaurant with possessison of stolen property and knowingly accepting stolen property, but proving that they knew it was stolen would be impossible unless it was a set-up.  Having a McCain person do a little sting operation would be pretty clever though.

Even the Obama supporters I’ve talked to about this have said that they think she’s doing it so that people will steal them.

I think it’s a shame that this kind of crap is happening, but there’s nothing illegal with what the restaurant is doing.  I think it’s dishonest, and I think their motives are to have people steal signs, but obviously they won’t say that.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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