Prediction for the Texas Democratic County Conventions: Obama as Winner

OK, I almost forgot about this, but the Texas Democratic county / State Senate district conventions are today.

Here are the results with 41% reporting back from the March 4th Super Tuesday II caucus:

  1. Obama 23,918 delegates 56%
  2. Clinton 18,620 delegates 44%
  3. Uncommitted 38 delegates 0%

So, 7,298 delegates will be sent to the state convention, which will be held on June 5th-7th.  And from there, 67 of the 228 delegates will be awarded based on the caucus results (the 126 for the primary were already awarded to Clinton and Obama with 65 and 61, respectively).  35 unpledged Superdelegates will also go, bringing the total to 228 delegates.

Anyway, today is step 2 of determining how to award those 67 delegates that are awarded based on the caucus results.

If the proportions from the precinct caucuses hold the same, the results for tomorrow will be:

  1. Obama 4,100 county/district delegates 56%
  2. Clinton 3,192 county / district delegates 44%
  3. Uncommitted 7 county / district delegates 0%

If those proportions hold the same at the state convention, the 67 delegates going to the Democratic National Convention would be awarded as follows:

  1. Obama 38 delegates 56%
  2. Clinton 29 delegates 44%

But, there are 2 reasons that those numbers probably won’t work out quite like that:

  1. We only have 41% of the caucus results.
  2. In caucuses/conventions, people/delegates tend to switch over to the person with more support, so at todays convention, we may see Obama increase to 60%, and then at the state convention to 65%.  Or we could see that in that 59% that we don’t have, Clinton takes the lead and finishes with 65% at the state convention (but I don’t think that scenario is likely, since Obama’s followers are MUCH more dedicated).

Here’s my prediction for tomorrow:

  1. Obama 4,379 county / district delegates 60%
  2. Clinton 2,919 county / distrcit delegages 40%

And here’s my prediction for the state convention:

  1. Obama 43 delegates 65%
  2. Clinton 24 delegates 35%

I’ll have updates as they come in today.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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