Final Democratic Prediction for Super Tuesday

Alright, after calculating states with a couple of formulas, I finally have a good map.  I can confidently predict all of the states except Arizona.  Although Obama has never led in a poll there, he is trending toward a win, so I decided to give it to him, but I’m going to keep it in the tossup category, because according to my formula, the difference was just over a quarter of a percent.

Final Democratic ST Prediction - PercentDemocrat Percent Key

Just to give you some numbers:

  • Alabama: Obama 50%, Clinton 48%
  • Arizona: Obama 49.25%, Clinton 48.75%
  • California: Obama 49%, Clinton 46%
  • Colorado: Obama 50%, Clinton 48%
  • Connecticut: Obama 51%, Clinton 47%
  • Delaware: Clinton 50%, Obama 47%
  • Georgia: Obama 56%, Clinton 35%
  • Massachusetts: Clinton 52%, Obama 46%
  • Missouri: Obama 51%, Clinton 46%

And here’s my confidence map for the predictions, again the only tossup left being Arizona:

Final Democratic ST Prediction - ConfDem Key - Confidence

See here for anything in this post you don’t understand: https://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2008/02/05/democratic-predictions-for-super-tuesday/

I’ll start announcing results as they come in.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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