Super Tuesday: Part II: Preliminary Republican Predictions:
OK, here’s a map of my preliminary predictions for Super Tuesday (I’ll update this at least once more after the Zogby polls come out, unless I remain confident in this one). The first number indicates the amount of delegates awarded and the second is the total number of that state’s delegates. If all are awarded, there is only one number (Delaware awards all 18 and California awards 170):
And here’s my confidence map for the election:
Default states are Winner Take All (WTA)
^ = Will be determined @ convention
^^ = Winner take all based on Super Tuesday convention caucuses
* = WTA by District + Proportional Overall
~ = WTA by District and Overall
! = Proportional
$ = Loophole
( ) = If no majority is reached
[ ] = If winner doesn’t win 2/3 of state
> = Convention will take place today, with a WTA method at the convention and a primary later
As of now, I have Tennessee going for Huckabee, due to the fact that he’s trending up and McCain is staying the same. This may change in my final prediction.
As of now, I also have Georgia going to Romney for the same reason. This may also change.
I think Alaska will go to Paul, due to the relatively low turnout rate, plus the fact that it’s a very libertarian state. It was also a great fundraising state for Paul.
I do NOT think that Montana will go to Paul, because of the way the caucus is set up. If this were a primary or a caucus where citizens could vote, I’d say it would go to Ron Paul, but it will be the county conventions that decide the delegates to the RNC, and I don’t think that Paul has the support inside the Montana GOP party leaders. The “advisory primary” that will take place later is essentially meaningless when it comes to delegates.
An Loophole Primary is where the voters will cast 2 ballots: 1 for a candidate and 1 for the delegates. It’s essentially an advisory primary + allowing the actual voters to pick the delegates (who don’t have to indicate their preferred candidate).
Any questions, comments, errors in what I’ve said, post a comment!
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