Republican Predictions for Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday: Part II: Preliminary Republican Predictions:

OK, here’s a map of my preliminary predictions for Super Tuesday (I’ll update this at least once more after the Zogby polls come out, unless I remain confident in this one).  The first number indicates the amount of delegates awarded and the second is the total number of that state’s delegates.  If all are awarded, there is only one number (Delaware awards all 18 and California awards 170):

Super Tuesday Republican Prediction - PercentagesSuper Tuesday Republican Key - Percentages

And here’s my confidence map for the election:

Super Tuesday Republican Prediction - ConfidenceSuper Tuesday Republican Key - Confidence
 Default states are Winner Take All (WTA)
^ = Will be determined @ convention
^^ = Winner take all based on Super Tuesday convention caucuses
* = WTA by District + Proportional Overall
~ = WTA by District and Overall
! = Proportional
$ = Loophole
( ) = If no majority is reached
[ ] = If winner doesn’t win 2/3 of state
> = Convention will take place today, with a WTA method at the convention and a primary later

Some analysis:

  • As of now, I have Tennessee going for Huckabee, due to the fact that he’s trending up and McCain is staying the same.  This may change in my final prediction.
  • As of now, I also have Georgia going to Romney for the same reason.  This may also change.
  • I think Alaska will go to Paul, due to the relatively low turnout rate, plus the fact that it’s a very libertarian state.  It was also a great fundraising state for Paul.
  • I do NOT think that Montana will go to Paul, because of the way the caucus is set up.  If this were a primary or a caucus where citizens could vote, I’d say it would go to Ron Paul, but it will be the county conventions that decide the delegates to the RNC, and I don’t think that Paul has the support inside the Montana GOP party leaders.  The “advisory primary” that will take place later is essentially meaningless when it comes to delegates.
  • An Loophole Primary is where the voters will cast 2 ballots: 1 for a candidate and 1 for the delegates.  It’s essentially an advisory primary + allowing the actual voters to pick the delegates (who don’t have to indicate their preferred candidate).

Any questions, comments, errors in what I’ve said, post a comment!

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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7 Responses to “Republican Predictions for Super Tuesday”

  1. hoppersean Says:

    Great Post. Nice Analysis. Will try and tear myself away from server rebuilds tomorrow to check for updates

  2. net Says:

    I don’t see a any Romney signs anywhere or any other candidate except Ron Paul. Just like the SuperBowl where the underdog wins, I’m wouldn’t be surprised if Ron Paul wins California.

  3. inkslwc Says:

    But Ron Paul has a more dedicated base, but less of a general following. I wish everybody was as enthusastic as most Ron Paul supporters – and I greatly admire the man, but he’s just not going to pull off the support from the general public or county/state party leaders (those who vote in the county conventions/caucuses).

  4. hdustinbing Says:

    That is HILARIOUS that yuou actually think that Paul would win if it was a primary vote. Ron Paul would not win ANY vote anywhere.

  5. hdustinbing Says:

    net…you need to come back to planet Earth and the real world. Ron Paul may finish FIFTH in California. Yes…fifth.

  6. inkslwc Says:

    Montana? Why not? Turnout there is extremely low – I think he could pull it off (not in a primary, but a closed caucus where it’s only registered party members, that way his people would register before, but Indys for McCain wouldn’t waste the time).

  7. Final Republican Prediction for Super Tuesday « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] If you need help understanding any of this post, see here:  https://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2008/02/04/republican-predictions-for-super-tuesday/ […]

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