OK, since all of the polls are old (the last one having come out in October), I am really quite at a loss for a good prediction here. The Maine Republican caucuses will last from Friday, February 1st – Sunday, February 3rd.
On the one hand, we have a closed caucus (but you can register at the polling location, from what I’ve seen). This should help Romney.
Then again, you have McCain coming off a great win in Florida – giving him a boost.
You also have Ron Paul, who seems to be doing well in caucuses, especially the overlooked states such as Nevada (but at least we had polls there) or Hawaii, where I think he’ll do quite well.
Then again, Mitt Romney’s son is going and campaigning through the state today and tomorrow.
On the other hand, Ron Paul is the only candidate to have visited the state.
Then again, Ron Paul hasn’t raised much money here. In fact, Romney raised 27% more than McCain, and Paul was VERY far behind.
But then we have the AP article saying that this may be Ron Paul’s best chance to win a state (I disagree – Hawaii or Alaska are better), but still, this is the first AP article giving Paul credit of being close to winning a state.
But, Ron Paul hasn’t done good in any of the 3 (VERY OLD) polls.
Then again, Giuliani had been winning the early (April) polls (but he was winning all of them then), and he’s had good support in the Northeast, so his endorsement of McCain could help McCain.
So my call is … Mitt Romney (and no this isn’t because he’s my candidate – I think he’s going to lose the nomination, but I think he will win Maine. Probably 38% Romney, 32% McCain, 22% Paul and around 8% Huckabee and others. My confidence in this isn’t great, so we’ll see what happens.