Prediction for South Carolina Democratic Primary: Obama Wins

OK, according to my calculations of polls released up through today (so that’s polling done through the 25th), here’s what the results of today’s South Carolina Democratic Primary SHOULD be:

  1. Obama 43.704%
  2. Clinton 33.792%
  3. Edwards 22.363%
  4. Gravel 0.140%

Margin of Error: 4.044%

Here’s my personal prediction:

  1. Obama 44%
  2. Clinton 32%
  3. Edwards 22%
  4. Others 2%

Remember, this is a caucus, so Obama will do a little better than he would in a caucus.  I think Kucinich supporters may still vote for him just out of principle and Gravel will get some – that accounts for the 2%.  It’s practically over for Clinton unless she can win in Florida (which she probably will) and build enough momentum for Super Tuesday (which she probably won’t) (not that I ever had any faith in her candidacy).

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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