Prediction for the Hawaii Republican Caucus (Ron Paul Wins)

OK, here it is, my prediction for the Hawaii caucus (20 delegates)…

  1. Paul 55%
  2. Romney 35%
  3. McCain 10%
  4. Giuliani and Huckabee will come in insignificantly – maybe 1 or 2%, but I doubt they’ll get any at all.

I was going to call it for Romney at 55%, then Paul at 35%, but then I looked at the amount of money raised – Paul raised the most and Hawaii’s been overlooked by ALL of the candidates.  It has a large Mormon population, but I don’t think that will overcome the dedication of Paul’s supporters.  Here’s the calendar for the caucuses (they’re kinda weird – they’re spread out over 12 days):

DATE DAY TIME HOUSE DISTRICT
Jan. 25 Friday 5:30 pm 10
Jan. 26 Saturday 9:00 am 24-25-26-27
10:00 am 1-2-3-4
10:00 am 8-9
10:00 am 44-45
2:00 pm 41
3:00 pm 42-43
Jan. 29 Tuesday 6:30 pm 29-30
7:00 pm 21-22-23-28
7:00 pm 31-32-33
Jan. 30 Wednesday 5:00 pm 11
6:00 pm 47-48-49-50-51
6:30 pm 14-15
7:00 pm 36-37-38-39
Jan. 31 Thursday 6:30 pm 16
Feb. 2 Saturday 8:30 am 17-18
8:30 am 46
10:00 am 6-7
12:30 pm 12-13
3:00 pm 5
7:00 pm 34-35-40
Feb. 5 Tuesday 7:00 pm 19-20

So we SHOULD not have any results in until the 5th, if all the media outlets keep to the “No releasing results before all the precincts are done!” “rule” – but who knows.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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