Details and Prediction for the Nevada Caucuses

OK, so the Nevada Republican Caucuses will begin at 9:00 A.M. PST (Noon here in Michigan).  Details are available here: http://www.nvgopcaucus.com/ (and it should be noted – I REALLY like that the parties have websites for their cauces – it’s a GREAT resource).  Unlike the Democratic caucus, there is no threshold that candidates have to meet.

Here’s my unscientific poll-based projection for the Republican Caucus:

  1. Romney 45%
  2. McCain 20%
  3. Huckabee 13%
  4. Paul – 10%
  5. Thompson 7%
  6. Giuliani 2.5%
  7. Hunter .5%

Margin of Error: 5.4% (I know it totals to 97%, but it’s a weird way of calculating it, and I’m working on perfecting it.

Here’s my ACTUAL prediction (we’ll see which one’s better)

  1. Romney 41%
  2. McCain 24%
  3. Huckabee 14%
  4. Paul – 10%
  5. Thompson 9%
  6. Giuliani 2.5%
  7. Hunter .5%

And here’s the details for the Nevada Democratic Caucus (available here: http://www.nvdemscaucus.com/):

The caucus will start at 11:00 A.M. PST, will be called to order at 11:30, and the viability will be determined at noon.  Then the caucusers will have 15 minutes to move to a different area if their candidate did now reach viability.  A candidate must reach the following viability qualifications in each caucus:

Caucuses which elect one (1) delegate No groups may form, the delegate must be elected by the whole caucus
Caucuses which elect two (2) delegates Viable groups must contain 25% of attendees (# eligible attendees X .25)
Caucuses which elect three (3) delegates Viable groups must contain 1/6th of attendees (# eligible attendees, divided by 6)
Caucuses which elect four (4) or more delegates Viable groups must contain 15% of attendees (# eligible attendees X .15)

And here’s my mathametical poll-based projection for the Democrats (with one more poll that came out, the italics are an updated projection, but my projection will remain the same):

  1. Clinton 48.5%   53%
  2. Obama 46%   46%
  3. Edwards 4%   1%

Margin of Error: 1.858%   4.234%

My personal prediction:

  1. Clinton 48%
  2. Obama 46%
  3. Edwards 6%

I’ll have live updates tomorrow, so check back here!

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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