Michigan Votes Today! My statistical Analysis of the Primary

Well, we are now about 7 hours away from the polls closing and 20 hours away from seeing the first results come in.  Already my stomach is churning and I probably won’t get much sleep tonight.

Things have gotten interesting in the past few days.

Using the least squares method, analyzing polls from March 11, 2007 – January 13, 2008, the results should be:

  • McCain – 19.997%
  • Giuliani – 8.896%
  • Romney – 23.969%
  • Thompson – 7.311%
  • Huckabee 15.896%
  • Other 8.859%
  • Undecided – 15.072%

Margin of Error: 3.966%

Now, using that same method but only analyzing polls from January, we get:

  • McCain – 26.603%
  • Giuliani – 3.759%
  • Romney – 28.138%
  • Thompson – 4.052%
  • Huckabee – 11.897%
  • Other – 13.552%
  • Undecided – 12.000%

Margin of Error: 3.172%

Now, lets assume that the undecideds allocate themselves according to that poll (so McCain would get 26.603% of the undecideds, Giuliani would get 3.759%, etc…):

  • McCain – 29.796%
  • Giuliani – 4.210%
  • Romney – 31.514%
  • Thompson – 4.538%
  • Huckabee – 13.324%
  • Other – 15.178%

Margin of Error: 3.553%

If we look at the data after January 8th (McCain’s win in New Hampshire) (the second number allocating the undecided votes according to the first number):

  • McCain – 27.452% / 29.426%
  • Giuliani – 6.286% / 6.738%
  • Romney – 27.405% / 29.375%
  • Thompson – 3.071% / 3.292%
  • Huckabee – 13.667% / 14.649%
  • Other – 14.929% / 16.002%
  • Undecided – 7.190% / Allocated to others

Margin of Error: 3.929% / 4.211%

Now – this is just me fiddling around with Excel, so this is completely unscientific, and could turn out to be totally wrong, but I like numbers and statistics.

I am not going to do this for the Democrats, since only 4 polls have included the “Uncommitted” option, so he results will be skewed, but Clinton is averaging about 53% and Uncommitted about 31%.

My Republican prediction for tomorrow, though is this:

  • Romney – 32%
  • McCain – 31%
  • Huckabee – 15%
  • Paul – 9%
  • Giuliani – 7%
  • Thompson – 5%
  • Hunter – 1%

For the Democrats:

  • Clinton – 52%
  • Uncommitted – 42%
  • Kucinich – 3%
  • Others (Gravel, Dodd, Richardson, Biden, etc…) – 3%

At this point, it’s a 2 way race for the Republicans, and a vote for Huckabee will help McCain.  Most of the people I’ve talked to who are voting for Huckabee or thinking about it, said their second choice (other choice if they were still debating) was Romney (although most people I’ve talked to are debating between Romney and McCain [or McBain as I heard once]).

For the Democrats, Clinton has everything to lose.  If she doesn’t reach 50% tomorrow, she’ll just look awful in the press and will never recover (not that I ever thought she’d win anyway).

I’ll have half hour live updates tomorrow after the polls close.

One last time, my “original” masterpiece, Romney’s Last Stand:

Romney's Last Stand

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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3 Responses to “Michigan Votes Today! My statistical Analysis of the Primary”

  1. gfe Says:

    I’m not sure the Republican race will be as close as you expect, but I’m not sure who will win either. I’d probably give Romney an edge, partly because of his media appearances (he was on “Larry King” and “Nightline” that I know of) leading up to the primary. There are just too many variables here, the big one being what so many semi-disenfrancised Democrats will do.

    I expect Clinton will win on the D side. I can’t imagine 30 percent actually voting for Uncommitted; I expect many Dems will be just plain confused when they find out that Edwards and Obama aren’t on the ballot and end up voting for either Clinton or Kucinich. I think Kucinich will get close to 7 or 8 percent. We’ll find out in a few hours.

  2. Final Statistical Analysis of Michigan’s Primary Polls « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] Republican Ranting A blog that I post on whenever I see something that makes me want to go off on a Republican (Libertarian every once in a while) rant. « Michigan Votes Today! My statistical Analysis of the Primary […]

  3. Final Michigan Primary Results and Delegate Count « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] I was off by about 8% for Clinton; 3% for Uncommitted and Romney; and 1% for McCain when I predicted it at 9:00 P.M. last night (https://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2008/01/15/michigan-primary-results-for-900-pm-with-my-call/) and I was off by 3% for Clinton, 2% for Uncommitted, 1% for McCain, and 7% for Romney when I predicted it early yesterday morning (https://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2008/01/15/michigan-votes-today-my-statistical-analysis-of-the-primary/). […]

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