OK, well I wanted to hold off on this until Governor Richardson made an endorsement and/or some of his Superdelegates re-pledged themselves to somebody else, but it’s been a day and a half now and neither has happened. In fact, the former will NEVER happen (at least not an endorsement before the general election).
So far, many people have said, “Richardson dropping out won’t make a difference.” I say just the opposite. He got 5% in New Hampshire – that would’ve provided for opposite results in both New Hampshire as well as Iowa. I personally think that New Mexico will go to Clinton (I just don’t see New Mexico supporting an African American). For the time being, I think Obama will pick up many of the states that I said Edwards would win as a result of his victory in Iowa and New Hampshire (which didn’t happen). Obama will win South Carolina (lose Michigan, but only Clinton’s on the ballot and I think her not boycotting Michigan will give her some bad press).
So, Richardson’s droppout could GREATLY effect the race, since he was the 4th place candidate.
We’ll see what happens after South Carolina.
In Michigan news, today is the deadline for Obama and Edwards (and any other candidates not on the ballot) to file for a write-in candidacy. I’m not sure if they are planning on filing or if they are completely boycotting the state, in which case Michigan law states that the write-in votes would not count. So I think most votes will be wasted since people won’t vote uncommitted (most will just vote for Clinton since they know her name). Some may do a write-in, not aware that the vote won’t count, and many will cross over to the Republicans and support Giuliani or McCain (which I know several people who have done this). I’ll keep you updated on the Michigan situation.
Tags: 2008 Election, 2008 Primary, African Americans, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Candidate, Delegates, Democrats, Election, Endorsement, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Politics, Primary, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, South Carolina, Superdelegates, Write-in, Write-in candidacy