PART III: My 2008 Presidential General Election Prediction (from this site: http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1919) (note that the colors are opposite of what the media uses):
Edwards/??? (252), Romney/Huckabee (286).
At this point, I have a VERY close race in mind. In fact, it’s the exact same amount of EVs as 2004. If Edwards can win North Carolina, it’s by a margin of only 3 votes that Romney wins. I don’t anticipate a major 3rd party candidate, but if Giuliani gets the nomination, a religious right candidate might rise up and this prediction would be very different. As well, I doubt that Ron Paul will run as a Libertarian (or other party for that matter), but a candidacy by him would change the whole outcome.
Let’s highlight some states:
New Hampshire and Iowas barely go to Romney. Michigan, due to its continued economic depression will be tired of the Democrats. In addition, Romney’s added name recognition will boost him into the winning spot here. Missouri goes to Edwards because they’ll be really opposed to Romney’s Mormonism. The only reason that Arkansas doesn’t follow suit is because of Huckabee as the VP candidate, who helps Romney maintain the other deep Southern states. New Mexico follows its trend toward the Democrats. Wisconsin and Minnesota stay on the Democratic side and Florida stays on the Republican side. Ohio goes Republican and Pennsylvania Democratic.
Tomorrow I will have my Republican endorsement!
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