2008 Election: Democratic Primary Prediction

PART II: My 2008 Democratic Primary (and Caucus) Prediction (from this site: http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008D/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=4116):

Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Richardson.  “(C)” indicates a caucus; in the caucuses, a candidate must receive 15% support, or those voters must relocate to another candidate.

As I said for the Republicans (https://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2007/12/29/2008-election-republican-primary-prediction/), if you visit the U.S. Election Atlas and see my prediction history, ignore the first few where I had Clinton leading – I just had to have a little time to figure out which states I wanted to give to Edwards, and my default was to give them to Clinton).  So, here we go…

  1. Iowa (C) – Edwards gets around 30% initially, but after the voters who voted for candidates under 15% have to respread their votes, he goes up to around 42%.
  2. Edwards goes on to win New Hampshire with around 40%.
  3. Michigan goes to Clinton with around 70% and 25% uncommitted or write-ins to Edwards or Obama, since most don’t know what that means (she’s the only major candidate on the ballot).
  4. Nevada (C) goes to Edwards in a similar fashion like Iowa.
  5. South Carolina gives Obama his first win around 40%.
  6. Florida, due to Edwards’ momentum barely goes to him with 30%.
  7. SUPER TUESDAY!!!!!!!!!  (Gravel might have possibly dropped out – Biden, Dodd and Richardson will hold on trying to last until their home states vote).  Alabama barely goes to Clinton with around 30%.  Alaska (C) and Arizona go to Edwards.  Arkansas, Connecticut, and Delaware go to Clinton with 50%, 40%, and 30% respectively.  Georgia, California and Colorado (C) goe to Edwards, California being a big surprise and boost to his campaign.  Idaho (C) and Illinois both go to Obama with 40%.  Kansas goes to Edwards with 40%.  Massachusetts and Minnesota (C) go to Clinton.  Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah all go to Edwards with 30%.  New Jersey, New York, and North Dakota (C) all show strong support around 50% for Clinton (ND being slightly under 50%).  New Mexico (C) goes to Richardson with 40%, in a similar fashion to how Edwards won Utah.  Richardson, Biden, and Dodd (if he hadn’t already dropped out) drop out.  Kucinich will stay in it until the end.
  8. Louisiana and Nebraska (C) go to Edwards, while Washington (C) goes to Clinton by a very strong margin.
  9. Maine (C) shows around 40% for Clinton.
  10. D.C. (C) goes to Obama, due to the African American population, while Maryland goes to Clinton and Virginia to Edwards, all with very high support.
  11. Hawaii (C) and Wisconsin both go to Edwards by fairly close margins.
  12. Ohio goes to Clinton, while Rhode Island goes to Obama.  Texas and Vermont go to Edwards.
  13. Wyoming (C) goes to Clinton with around  35%.
  14. Mississippi barely goes to Edwards with around 33%.
  15. Pennsylvania goes to Clinton with around 35%.
  16. In May, Indiana and Kentucky go to Clinton, while North Carolina, West Virginia, and Oregon all go to Edwards, all near 30%.
  17. In June, Montana and South Dakota go to Clinton, while Puerto Rico (C) winds down the nomination process with a win for Edwards.

Tomorrow (if I have time) will be the general election prediction.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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25 Responses to “2008 Election: Democratic Primary Prediction”

  1. 2008 Election: Presidential Endorsement « Republican Ranting Says:

    […] I would probably support Ron Paul.  But we won’t have to worry about that, it’ll be Edwards vs. […]

  2. obama for president | Info trend it Says:

    […] 2008 Election: Democratic Primary Prediction […]

  3. Edith McGlynn Says:

    Obama for president if this happens do we all get our appointment to his church http://WWW.TUCC.org? What a horrible thought sounds just like Hitler to me except he wanted all blue eyes. How can we elect a president that decides things on race.

  4. Len Montford Says:

    Hillary Clinton will, hopefully, become the next President of the United States. Her election will be testament to the impartial attitude of the American Voters and their ability to reason who is most qualified for the position.

    Other candidates, Barack Obama and John McCain are responsibler and valid candidates for the position but for the present should be overshadowed by Hillary Clinton. There can be no doubt that Mr. McCain’s greatest downfall is the party he represents.

    I’m hoping the last two terms with the pretender Mr Bush Jr. are enough to convince the American Public that Republicans for the present do not deserve their support.

    Hillary Clinton has the Poise and Dignity to rank among the great female leaders in the world. My support and prayers will be with her.

  5. inkslwc Says:

    52% of Americans already won’t vote for her. I don’t think you will nominate her, but if by some chance you do, thank you in advance.

  6. Len Montford Says:

    Included in the alleged 52% of Americans who it is suggested will not vote for Hillary Clinton it might be wise to consider that 90% of them are not likely to vote anyway.
    Statistics can always be bent to suit ones personal preference. I’m hopeful the results as they have already done, may prove many predictions to be in error.

  7. inkslwc Says:

    I’m sorry, I forgot to say that that poll was of likely voters (although who can judge likely voters this early, but still – it’s not a good sign for her).

  8. Len Montford Says:

    Watching the caucus in Nevada was an eye opening experience for me and I hope for many others. There can be no denying the enthusiasm expressed by those attending. Watching supporters of opposing candidates and seeing their controlled actions in the heat of competition is refreshing. It only proves great things can be accomplished without violence.
    I was very pleased with the result. Not only Clinton’s win but the close second of Obama.
    As an outsider it is my belief these two highly qualified, patriotic and apparently intelligent individuals would make the utopian selection for running mates on the Democratic side and to me it wouldn’t matter greatly which one ran for the top position.
    As a truly non-partisan viewer I wish to congratulate Senator McCain on his win in Carolina. If anyone could work with the Democrats as leader of the opposition I personally believe it might be him.
    The United States is a highly respected Country as are the American people. It is time they rid themselves of the buffoons in Washington and replaced them with some true statesmen. Or Stateswomen as the case may be.
    The remaining primaries should be interesting!

  9. inkslwc Says:

    It scares me that you commented on this – I made this like a month ago and it’s terribly inaccurate. I should do a new one of these. 😛

  10. Len Montford Says:

    My apologies, didn’t mean to scare you? As a Canadian I regard my Southern neighbors as kin. Until recent years travel across the border was nothing more that a rolling stop to tell an Officer what our destination and general purpose might be. Weekly trips into North Dakota and Minnesota were comonplace. Recent circumstance and activity has understandably made the process a little more difficult.
    My point is, what happens in the USA Politically or Financially has a very definite effect in Canada. I’m hoping the upcoming Presidential Election will result in putting someone in office with more than their personal issues in mind.
    I find it difficult to connect the words, health care, insurance, job security, or any other social advantage with Mr Bush who it seems is only interested in ? ? ? It escapes me what he might truly be interested in as he seems preoccupied with starting wars and killing off the young people of the American Armed Forces.
    I have served with the Canadian forces attached to an American Fleet in Korea and am proud of our association in a just cause but I find it hard to rationalize or justify the obvious mistruths of the Bush administration.
    Once again I send my best wishes to Clinton and Obama in the hope one of them, once elected, will be able to accomplish the near impossible and return the American Government to an attitude of sanity.

  11. inkslwc Says:

    Just a follow-up on your first paragraph. I am a huge proponent of increasing America’s national defense and security, but complicating travel from Canada to Americ did not do this for us – it has simply caused a headache for commuters, especially near my home town (area) of Detroit.

    There are various places in Montana or Idaho that people can cross without getting caught if they REALLY want to. No terrorist is going to try to come through border security now – they’ll try to get through where we have NO security. It opens us up for terrorists even more. Not to mention the fact that there are plenty of lakes and rivers that people can cross.

    I’m surprised that the bill even passed. I thought the lobbyists for the alcohol companies would’ve lobbied as many people as possible (think about how much money Canada makes because of 19 and 20 year olds going to Canada to drink).

    On to Iraq – I think that it was a just war, but it was not well thought out. The countries around Iraq now have the WMD’s and we’ve caused a lot of instability. What we need to do now is follow Senator Chuck Hagel’s plan and move our troops to the border so that we can secure the country of Iraq and let the Iraqis deal with the internal conflict. I’ve used the analogy of 2 kids fighting and that a fellow kid will do a better job of breaking up the fight, but an adult should be there to supervise (not that the country is more immature than us – I’m simply saying that a fellow Iraqi knows the conflict and the reasons behind it better than ANY other country).

  12. Len Montford Says:

    I get the feeling we are in very close agreement. A just war perhaps but the rationale given by Bush and his cronies is riddled with supposition, innuendo and fantasy. I also agree the ‘Commander in Chief’ is in a position to call the action but he should then get out of the way and let professionals handle the job.
    I think that had the Generals taken charge, the outcome might well have been much more satisfactory. I would apply this to the additional screwup of the Bush administraion in Afghanistan.
    Sadam has met his maker but what about the infamous Bin Laden? Getting him and putting a stop to his activities would have surely made much greater steps toward home security than digging Sadam out of his hole.
    What in fact did Sadam do to the American people or for that matter any other Country in the Western Hemisphere?
    Granted he was a tyrant, a dictator, a cruel and arrogant leader but nonetheless he was the leader of Iraq and it was the Iraqis that suffered. Now those self same Iraqis, the “victims”‘?’ for whom the American Forces risked their lives and continue to risk their lives are the perpetrators of actions killing off more Iraqis and Coalition Forces than Sadam eer did.
    Go to the borders and let them work it out for themselves. Chuck Hagel has the solution but in order to protect ourselves and Iraq’s neighbors I believe it should be made clear that any Iraqi, Armed Forces, Militant or Civilian that attempts to breach the barrier shall be dealt with in a most severe manner. It’s a pity they couldn’t have just moved the Berlin Wall and contained something that needs containing now.
    Your comments relative to entering the USA from Canada are very well taken. In Manitoba we have farms that sit on the border of North Dakota and traffic moves freely back and forth. Lake of the woods is an excellent avenue for traffic to the USA and boats and snow vehicles traverse the crossings regularly. The Hutterites (a very industrious and opportunistic group) have a great reputation for outdoing the rum runners of the ‘Dirty Thirties’. Now I don’t have hard evidence but it is amazing what Liquor can be purchased in Southern Manitoba towns. Liquor with Brands not normally available in Canada but plentiful in the USA.
    I believe you would be quite familiar with the millions of cigarettes passing through the border from Quebec to the USA.
    It is naive to believe that Border crossing checks have added to the security of the American people. As a fact it is more likely the added responsibility of the Officers has minimized their ability to patrol the open borders in an effort to catch those who should be caught.
    When the smoke clears and if “the good Lords willin’ and the creek don’t rise” the sun will come up in the morning and we can be thankful on either side of the border that the majority on the other side are our true friends. —HOPEFULLY.

  13. Ian Says:

    If Hilary Clinton becomes my president I will be horrified to be an American.

  14. inkslwc Says:

    She won’t even get the nomination. Contrary to my map above (which is months old and every time somebody comments on this, I remember that I have to do a new one), Obama will get the nomination.

  15. Len Montford Says:

    As an outsider I can be nothing more than objective. No matter how I look at the statistics and from my personal knowledge of the American people gained from extensive travelling in the USA, I do draw my own conclusions which lead me to specific predictions.
    Without casting aspersions on anyone it is my belief Hilary will get the nomination. I believe Obama is a wonderful and capable candidate but perhaps one Federal Election early. Against anyone else, I think Obama would be a shoe-in. Hilary on the other hand has a very open history, some very positive and some not. If you can put party politics aside and look at all the candidates who, in your opinion would be most recognizable in the world. Not only as a Political figure but as a person?
    If you choose to attach circumstance for which Hilary had no input you might make a case for a negative but to the Lady herself, She does and will continue to stand out as a person of Integrity and Virtue which will earn her the love of the American people and the respect of the citizens of the world.
    To Ian who will be ‘horrified’ when Hilary becomes President, you can come and live in Canada and I would be proud to take your place in the USA and pledge allegiance to the Office of The President.
    As the primaries move into the West I think you will see a major swing in the direction of Hilary.
    On the Republican side, who is going to surpass the big brother and protector image being created by McCain? His adversaries are dropping like flies, almost as fast as Mr. Bush’s advisors are jumping ship.
    I will even go so far as suggesting that Hilary and John would have no trouble shaking hands following the election and then step off working to the benefit of all Americans in a truly non-partisan manner.
    And I still believe Obama woud make an excellent Vice President.

  16. Len Montford Says:

    Super Tuesday has come and gone and other than some remarkable doings in the Republican race not much has changed. I believe Hillary’s showing across the nation speaks well for her success and possible nomination but I must also congratulate Mr. Obama on his results.

    Though it has not been dwelled on, partisan votes resulting from racial differences has been a topic. From my perspective it seems obvious, whites and other races have had no difficulty picking Obama based on his perceived qualities alone. By the same token it is obvious many people of color cast their votes for Hillary.

    I believe it is time for all Americans to take stock of their personal feelings, put all prejudices aside and reallly become the United States or may I say The United People of The United States of America.

    I don’t believe there is a doubt, no matter which candidate for the Democrats is nominated, the end of discrimination and segregation will be a large part of their agenda.

    I think Mr McCain’s showing for the Republicans is also an accomplishment worth mentioning. Congratulations Mr. McCain.

    I believe as I commented in the past, Mr. McCain would be willing to work with either Hillary or Obama and I now look forward to the final result with joyful anticipation of a near non-partisan relationship in the American Government.

    In retrospect I would also like to make my observation that a union of McCain and Huckabee would make a powerful team to represent the Republican Party.

  17. Emmanuel Winner Says:

    I went to the Trinity UCC site as suggested by Edith McGlynn (January 8), It is unabashedly a Black community church, but I failed to find any evidence of reverse racism there. I found instead a demand for African American decency, hard work, and community commitment, with a considerable amount of positive optimism rather than rancor over the past. I also read some of the theology sites that the TUCC suggested, and found a kind of “Oprah for Christ” attitude that is hardly offensive, and in many ways uplifting. I’m white, I’m not Christian, I detest racism and intolerance in any guise – I left the TUCC site unoffended. I’m satisfied with my choice to vote Obama.

  18. Sandy Says:

    I should applaud for your accurate predictions! I still wonder how did you know? A round of applause for the exactl accurate and true predictions.

    Keep it up!

  19. inkslwc Says:

    Yeah, things have changed a lot since my original prediction. Once I decided that Edwards wasn’t going to be the nominee though, my predictions weren’t too bad.

  20. me Says:

    wow this guy was way off! edward did you really think he was going to go far, please. although anyone is better then mccain!

  21. inkslwc Says:

    Some of the last polls in Iowa had him getting 60% of undecideds, which would’ve given him around 40% in Iowa. That would’ve been enough momentum to catapult him into the lead.

  22. me Says:

    I hope there will be a Clinton and Obama VS McCain and whoever! how exciting, a black man and a woman ruling in the white house! (sounds a little like a soap opera, haha)

  23. inkslwc Says:

    Who would be President? Can you honestly see the Clintons getting along if the Obamas were the First Family? That really would turn into a soap opera, and you’d have tabloid pictures of fights all the time. Those 2 families would tear at each other the entire 4 years.

  24. me Says:

    I can honestly say I could see them both in the white house! I didn’t say it would be pretty, but the changes in American policies will improve over the same old crap that McCain’s planning on doing! 4 more years of a Bush yap a like, ugh! i think they can do it, if it turns out that way!

  25. Obamatron Says:

    I had a large plate of enchiladas last night and i gotta say, i fully support obama now. It really changed my view of what is right, and now i have to vote obama. It all adds up! Don’t Have Block!!!

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