OK, well I wanted to do a 2008 Election series sometime soon before Iowa, and it’s a slow news day (kinda – I used up the Bhutto story early this morning), so I guess now is a good time. Today is…
PART I: My 2008 Republican Primary (and Caucus) Prediction (from this site: http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=151):
Giuliani, McCain, Romney, Thompson, Huckabee, Paul.
“(C)” indicates a caucus.
- So, here’s what happens, Romney goes into Iowa (C) with Huckabee still strong, but losing steam – McCain gains a little, and Ron Paul pulls out a surprise and lands 2nd or 3rd place.
- New Hampshire – Romney pulls off a steady 40% lead; McCain gets a decent 2nd. (Even if McCain wins here, I think he’s still done, since he even won it in 2000).
- Michigan – Romney pulls off a nice 40% win in Michigan, catupulting him forward
- Nevada (C) – Romney pulls off one of his strongest wins at 50%. South Carolina – Huckabee pulls off a decent lead despite Romney’s momentum – since SC doesn’t always follow the preceding states.
- Wyoming (C), Hawaii (C), Florida, and Maine (C) – Romney sweeps all of them.
- SUPER TUESDAY!!!!!!! Here’s where the fun begins…Thompson wins Alabama by a fair margin. Alaska (C) goes to Ron Paul, which wins him a lot of media coverage and makes himat least a contender in several other states (screwing with strategies of candidates, but not winning more than Montana). Arizona goes to McCain by a surprisingly low margin, due to Ron Paul’s recent win. Duncan Hunter would’ve dropped out by this point, which some people will give more support to Romney. Huckabee wins his second state, his home state of Arkansas with about 50% of the votes. Duncan Hunter’s endorsement of Romney gives Romney a fair win of about 35% in California. Colorado (C) goes to Romney with above 40%. Connecticut goes to Giuliani, giving him his first win, with voters giving him support in the high 30%’s. Delaware (C) follows similarly. Georgia goes to Huckabee around 35%. Illinois goes to Giuliani with about 35%. Massachusetts goes to Romney with around 50% and Minnesota (C) around 35%. Missouri then goes to Huckabee with 40%, while Montana adds another tally to Ron Paul’s column with barely 30%, giving him his second and final win. New Jersey and New York both go to Giuliani with around 50%. North Dakota (C) goes to Romney with about 40% while Oklahoma goes to him with about 35%. Tennessee goes to Thompson with about 40%. Utah (C) goes to Romney with 60%. After Super Tuesday, Thompson drops out due to his loss of Georgia and Missouri, and whether or not he endorses Huckabee, that’s where many of his supporters goe. This leaves Giuliani, McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Paul, and Keyes, all of whom will remain in the race until the end.
- Kansas (C) goes to Romney with 40% while Louisiana goes to Huckabee with around 50%.
- D.C. (C), Maryland, and Viriginia all go to Giuliani with 50%, 40%, and 30% respectively.
- Washington (C) goes to Romney with 40%, as does Wisconsin by 30% which is a big blow to Giuliani.
- Puerto Rico goes to Romney.
- Ohio goes to Romney with 40% and Romney beats out McCain in Vermont, finishing off McCain essentially, but he sticks in it and wins a decent amount of delegates from the his 2nd place winnings. Rhode Island goes to Giuliani with 35% and Texas to Huckabee with 40%.
- Mississippi goes to Huckabee with 40%.
- Romney wins Pennsylvania in April with 40%.
- In May, Indiania, North Carolina, Oregon, and Idaho all go to Romney. West Virginia is taken by Giuliani, and Huckabee gets Kentucky.
- Romney sweeps the month of June winning New Mexico, South Dakota, and Nebraska.
So, check out my prediction here: http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=151 (ignore the first 4 or 5 predictions somewhat – that was me fiddling with what states to take away from Giualiani, which I just awarded all the states that I didn’t know which way they’d go, but I’ve always been confident that Romney will win the nomination). And here’s my plug for the – it’s a great site, with a great forum and predictions.
Tomorrow will be the Democratic Nomination, then my endorsement (official – I’ve hinted at it a few times).