Posts Tagged ‘Uncommitted Delegates’

Howard Dean: “We’ll Know Who Our Nominee Is” by the “End of June”

April 28, 2008

Today, Democratic National Committee Chairman and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean appeared on MSNBC’s Today Show, where he was interviewed by Meredith Vieira.  He discussed the current situation between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton as well as what role the Superdelegates will play in the nomination process.  The following is a video of the interview, and I have typed a transcript below it:

 

Meredith Vieira: Howard Dean is the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee and former Governor of the State of Vermont.  Doctor Dean, good morning to you.

Dean: Thanks for having me on.

Meredith: Thanks for being here.  You just heard that Reverend Wright is making headlines again.  How much does he complicate your efforts to eventually bring this party together?

Dean: Well, you know, I—I’ve made it a point not to comment on either of the campaigns, so I’m not gonna comment on Reverend Wright, which is all about—in this campaign.  My focus is John McCain.  Uh—John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for 100 years.  He thinks the economy is the problem of the mortgage holders, and not the mortgage lenders.  Uh—he thinks that we ought not to have health care for our kids.  Uh—there’s a big difference between both Hillary—Clinton and Barack Obama.  On the one hand and John McCain on the other, so I—I’m not gonna get into the Obama versus Clinton stuff.

Meredith: But race has certainly become a key element in—in this campaign, on both sides.  You can’t ignore that.

Dean: I—I’m not totally convinced that it is a key element, uh—[unintelligible].  I think that people make up their minds on a variety of issues and I think they’ll continue to do that.  But again, I—there’s a big—the biggest difference on this campaign is not between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.  It’s between John McCain, who’s a candidate of the past, a candidate that offers us four more of George Bush—uh—and either of our two candidates, who are really gonna be agents of change.

Meredith: But first you have to have somebody nominated, and you’re hoping to see this nomination wrapped up by June.  How optimistic are you that that will happen?

Dean: I think it will happen.  Um—I think—we—we got nine more primaries.  I think we’re gonna get through those.  Uh—we’ve got two really big ones coming up a week from tomorrow.  Uh—and then—uh—the—there’s 500 of the 800 unpledged delegates have already said who they’re for.  I think the remaining 300 will do that by the end of June and we’ll know who our nominee is, and that’s what we need to do.

Meredith: But if you listen to Senators Clinton and Obama over the past few days, they’ve been arguing over what criteria the Superdelegates should use to make their selection, and Clinton is suggesting that it’s the person who has the most votes, popular votes, and she has those if you count Michigan and Florida.  Barack Obama is saying, “No, no, no, it’s the person who has the most pledged delegates.”  But if I understand the rules right, the Superdelegates don’t have to abide by any of those criteria.

Dean: Uh—the—the rules say that the delegates can vote their conscience, and they—they’re Superdelegates—and they will vote their conscience.  Most of the time, and in fact, all of the time in my personal experience, they have voted for the person with the most pledged delegates, but there’s—that’s not in the rules, and they can do—I—I think what they’re gonna do is vote for the person they think can beat John McCain.  Look, we’ve just got a new ad out on the—on McCain’s position on the war.  It’s so far away from where Americans want to be, that I just can’t imagine how they’re gonna elect John McCain.  The only way that John McCain wins this race is if Democrats are not united.  We need to be united in order to win.  We need a new direction for this country, and again, John McCain offers the—the past.

Meredith: But right now you are not united, sir, that’s very clear.

Dean: Well, we’ve got a race going on, and as soon as we finish that race, we’ll be united.

Meredith: But what—what—you—you talked about the Superdelegates following the will of the pledged delegates.  If they don’t do that this time, and as you said, they don’t have to, there is the possibility of a perception that the race was stolen.  How do you ensure that it was not, to the person who loses?  How do you ensure that it was fair?

Dean: That’s exactly what I’m doing.  I stand up for what the rules of the party are.  You may or may not like the rules, but both candidates knew what the rules were when we started—uh—they both have campaigns among pledged and unpledged delegates, and my job is to uphold the rules—without fear or favor of any candidates.  Look, somebody’s gonna lose this race with 49% of the delegates.  We can’t win the Presidency without those 49% that represent the candidate that doesn’t win.  And so, I need to make sure that whoever loses feels that they’ve been treated fairly and respectfully, and that’s what my—that’s my job and that’s what I’m gonna do.

Meredith: Have you spoken to the two candidates, taken them aside, and said, “Look [unintelligible] if you lose, I expect you to go out there and campaign vigorously,” for the other one?

Dean: I don’t think I need to do that.  Look, when I lost to John Kerry, I didn’t need to be told that this was about something that was greater than—than me, this was about the country.  And I worked very hard for John Kerry, and it took me about three months to get my folks to change their position and not support me, but support John Kerry for the Presidency, because it was about what was good for America, and I think either of these candidates are experienced public servants and they know, without being told by me or anybody else, that their obligation is to their country, and I think that they will do that very thing.  As soon as they know that they aren’t gonna win, they’re gonna support the other candidate.

Meredith: Alright, Howard Dean, thank you very much.

Dean: Thank you.

Now, let’s look at some parts of Dean’s interview.

First, I have to clarify a statement that Dean made:

Uh—John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for 100 years.  He thinks the economy is the problem of the mortgage holders, and not the mortgage lenders.  Uh—he thinks that we ought not to have health care for our kids.

Yeah, that’s blatantly untrue.  Nowhere has McCain said that he WANTS to spend 100 years in Iraq, but that we should stay there that long if necessary.  He never said that we shouldn’t have health care for kids, but that the government shouldn’t be buying health care plans for them.

Meredith: But race has certainly become a key element in—in this campaign, on both sides.  You can’t ignore that.

Dean: I—I’m not totally convinced that it is a key element, uh—[unintelligible].  I think that people make up their minds on a variety of issues and I think they’ll continue to do that.

Dean, buddy, where’ve you been?  Of course race is a key element – this is America.  It’ll be a key element for another 50-100 years.

Meredith: But first you have to have somebody nominated, and you’re hoping to see this nomination wrapped up by June.  How optimistic are you that that will happen?

Dean: I think it will happen.  Um—I think—we—we got nine more primaries.  I think we’re gonna get through those.  Uh—we’ve got two really big ones coming up a week from tomorrow.  Uh—and then—uh—the—there’s 500 of the 800 unpledged delegates have already said who they’re for.  I think the remaining 300 will do that by the end of June and we’ll know who our nominee is, and that’s what we need to do.

I honestly don’t see Clinton as giving up by then.  If she’s behind, she’ll take it to the convention floor and fight for every last delegate to come over to her side.  The only way she’ll win it is if Florida and Michigan are seated, and Obama wouldn’t allow that, and even if he did, his supporters wouldn’t, and the future of the Democratic party would be bleak at best for the next 20+ years.

Meredith: But what—what—you—you talked about the Superdelegates following the will of the pledged delegates.  If they don’t do that this time, and as you said, they don’t have to, there is the possibility of a perception that the race was stolen.  How do you ensure that it was not, to the person who loses?  How do you ensure that it was fair?

Dean: That’s exactly what I’m doing.  I stand up for what the rules of the party are.  You may or may not like the rules, but both candidates knew what the rules were when we started—uh—they both have campaigns among pledged and unpledged delegates, and my job is to uphold the rules—without fear or favor of any candidates.  Look, somebody’s gonna lose this race with 49% of the delegates.  We can’t win the Presidency without those 49% that represent the candidate that doesn’t win.  And so, I need to make sure that whoever loses feels that they’ve been treated fairly and respectfully, and that’s what my—that’s my job and that’s what I’m gonna do.

Right on.  If the Democrats don’t unite (and they won’t!!!) it pretty much gurantees McCain the win.

Meredith: Have you spoken to the two candidates, taken them aside, and said, “Look [unintelligible] if you lose, I expect you to go out there and campaign vigorously,” for the other one?

Dean: I don’t think I need to do that.  Look, when I lost to John Kerry, I didn’t need to be told that this was about something that was greater than—than me, this was about the country.  And I worked very hard for John Kerry, and it took me about three months to get my folks to change their position and not support me, but support John Kerry for the Presidency, because it was about what was good for America, and I think either of these candidates are experienced public servants and they know, without being told by me or anybody else, that their obligation is to their country, and I think that they will do that very thing.  As soon as they know that they aren’t gonna win, they’re gonna support the other candidate.

But you and Kerry didn’t fight NEARLY as much as Obama and Clinton are.  And you and Kerry didn’t go through all of the primaries before you knew who the nominee was.  The two are VERY different, and althouigh the 2 candidates may APPEAR to get along, they won’t, and Americans will see this.  In addition, the supporters of the loser won’t all go over to the other side, and many of them will stay home, ESPECIALLY if Obama loses.  All those young people who got involved will suddenly become apathetic again.

I honestly wonder if Dean really believes what he’s saying, whether or not he truly believes that everything will work out alright.

Frankly, I don’t see how the Democrats could pull off a win, unless the Republicans and/or McCain screw up big before November (Mark Foley, George Allen, etc…).

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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Howard Dean: Superdelegates “Need to Say Who They’re For”

April 20, 2008

DNC Chairman and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean was interviewed by CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Thursday, discussing the Superdelegates and the primary in general.  Here’s a video, with my transcript below:

Blitzer: You have suggested, though, you want this thing resolved before July 1st, long before the Democratic Convention in Denver at the end of August.

Dean: That’s right—um—and that is really—there’s about 65, roughly, percent of the Superdelegates have voted.  There’s about 320 some-odd left to vote.  I need them to say who they’re for starting now.  They really do need to do that.  We cannot give up 2 or 3 months of active campaigning and healing time.

Even DEAN realizes that the party is going to need healing time, after Clinton and Obama keep tearing each other aprt.

We’ve got to know who our nominee is, and there’s reason not to know after the last primary on June 3rd.  So, the Superdelegates have actually been pretty good so far.  They’ve trickled in.  They’ve made their alliances known as things have gone on, and they need to keep doing that so we get all this wrapped up in June.

Blitzer: Should they make their decisions … based on the popular vote, the pledged delegate count, the electoral college [Dean chuckles], states—the most states won, or whatever’s in their gut—who they think’s most electable.

Dean: The rules say they should vote their conscience, and I think that’s pretty good advice.  My job is to enforce the rules.  You can agree with them or not agree with them, but they’re gonna vote their conscience, and I think that’s what they’re called upon to do.

Blitzer: You know, it’s really … to a lot of the pundits, surprising is how well John McCain does in these hypothetical match-ups against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in some key states. … Why is John McCain doing as well as he is doing, given the state of the economy, given the unpopularity of the War in Iraq?

Dean: Uh, well, I don’t think John McCain is doing so well. For him, with no opponent and nobody criticizing him and getting much publicity doing so, he’s in the low 40’s.  Our candidates are having a really spirited contest, and they’re in the low 40’s.  When people know John McCain, when they know that he just proposed 8 billion dollars worth of spending, essentially tax cuts, without saying how he’s gonna pay for it, it appears that he’s just another 4 years of George Bush.

He’ll pay for it by vetoing anything with earmarks, like he’s promised.  When you don’t spend 17% of a Democratic-sponsored Iraq appropriations bill on pork, you don’t have a budget problem.

That’s what we got from George Bush—100 years in Iraq.

Like I’ve said, it doesn’t matter how long we’re there, but how MANY of us are there.  We’re still in Korea folks, and it’s been roughly 50 years.  I don’t hear anybody complaining about us not bringing home those troops.

Well, you know, I don’t think people are gonna sign on to that platform.  So, I don’t think—I’ve said for a long time the polls don’t mean anything—right now, in terms of November, and I’ll be consistent and say it again—I’m not worried about the polls.  What I want is a fair process to name a good Democratic nominee, which I’m convinced we’re gonna have, then we’ll see what the polls say when we know who are nominee is.

Blitzer: Well how worried are you though, as the leader of the Democratic Party, that Hillary Clinton’s attacking Barack Obama on a whole host of issues, and vice versa, that they’re chipping away at each other—they’re diminishing each other, potentially to the advantage of John McCain.

Dean: Well, you know—sure, you worry about that some, and I think we should focus on Iraq and—and tax policy and the economy and so forth.  [Unintelligible] have to say the media is a big part of that, as well—they seem to like the attacks more than the substance, but I have to say also, that if you actually listen to what our candidates are saying, the American people are gonna agree with them.  They do not want to continue George Bush’s give everything to the millionaires and gazillionaires tax policies and run up huge deficits.  They do not want to continue the War in Iraq when we need so much help here at home and American jobs are being lost.  They do believe that we oughta join every other democracy in the world and have health care for all our people, which John McCain has voted against and said he doesn’t support.  John McCain is just completely out of step with where the American people are, and I think, in the end, we’re gonna win.  John McCain is just a step backwards and the American people are looking for a step forwards.

He has a good plan that would allow for more healthy competition between companies, instead of shoving the government into the private lives of people like Obama and Clinton want to do.

So, Dean has essentially said what he’s been saying all along, specifically, “Superdelegates, decide ASAP, but definitely by June 3rd.”  And he’s made it clear that he doesn’t think that either candidate should drop out yet (at least that’s his official position).  He doesn’t want a convention fight though (and what Democrat other than Clinton supporters would?).

So, all we Republicans can do is sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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Prediction for the Texas Democratic County Conventions: Obama as Winner

March 29, 2008

OK, I almost forgot about this, but the Texas Democratic county / State Senate district conventions are today.

Here are the results with 41% reporting back from the March 4th Super Tuesday II caucus:

  1. Obama 23,918 delegates 56%
  2. Clinton 18,620 delegates 44%
  3. Uncommitted 38 delegates 0%

So, 7,298 delegates will be sent to the state convention, which will be held on June 5th-7th.  And from there, 67 of the 228 delegates will be awarded based on the caucus results (the 126 for the primary were already awarded to Clinton and Obama with 65 and 61, respectively).  35 unpledged Superdelegates will also go, bringing the total to 228 delegates.

Anyway, today is step 2 of determining how to award those 67 delegates that are awarded based on the caucus results.

If the proportions from the precinct caucuses hold the same, the results for tomorrow will be:

  1. Obama 4,100 county/district delegates 56%
  2. Clinton 3,192 county / district delegates 44%
  3. Uncommitted 7 county / district delegates 0%

If those proportions hold the same at the state convention, the 67 delegates going to the Democratic National Convention would be awarded as follows:

  1. Obama 38 delegates 56%
  2. Clinton 29 delegates 44%

But, there are 2 reasons that those numbers probably won’t work out quite like that:

  1. We only have 41% of the caucus results.
  2. In caucuses/conventions, people/delegates tend to switch over to the person with more support, so at todays convention, we may see Obama increase to 60%, and then at the state convention to 65%.  Or we could see that in that 59% that we don’t have, Clinton takes the lead and finishes with 65% at the state convention (but I don’t think that scenario is likely, since Obama’s followers are MUCH more dedicated).

Here’s my prediction for tomorrow:

  1. Obama 4,379 county / district delegates 60%
  2. Clinton 2,919 county / distrcit delegages 40%

And here’s my prediction for the state convention:

  1. Obama 43 delegates 65%
  2. Clinton 24 delegates 35%

I’ll have updates as they come in today.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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Howard Dean Wants Superdelegates to Decide Their Candidates By July 1st

March 28, 2008

Today, Democratic National Committee Chairman and former Governor Dr. Howard Dean (D-VT-No endorsement yet) went on CBS’s The Early Show to discuss the ever-growing problem of infighting between Obama and Clinton.  Here’s a video of Dean’s interview:

(Is it just me, or does Dean look like he’s aged a LOT since 2004? – He didn’t look so good in this interview, but then again, I’ve said that about 1/2 the people I’ve seen on TV lately.)

Yesterday while at his office at the Democratic National Committee headquarters, Dean told the Associate Press, “You do not want to demoralize the base of the Democratic Party by having the Democrats attack each other.  Let the media and the Republicans and the talking heads on cable television attack and carry on, fulminate at the mouth.  The supporters should keep their mouths shut about this stuff on both sides because that is harmful to the potential victory of a Democrat.”

Dean is absolutely right (along with Senators Leahy (D-VT-Obama) and Dodd (D-CT-Obama) – the party is KILLING itself, and the Superdelegates really should listen to Dean and decide as soon as possible.

I don’t think they will though – I think they’ll drag it OUT to convention and drag the party DOWN with them.  And it will be Clinton’s fault – she’s the one using the Tonya Harding Option in order to attempt to win, but she’ll lose both the nomination for herself as well as the general election.

But hey, that’s good for McCain!

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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Final Florida Primary Results and Updated Delegate Count

February 1, 2008

OK, the final results are in from the Florida Department of State, and here are the totals for the Republicans:

Date State Candidate Votes % Delegates RNC Delegates Total Delegates Delegate Count
29-Jan Florida Huckabee 260,209 13.48% 0 0 0 31
  Romney 598,226 30.98% 0 0 0 68
  Thompson 22,419 1.16% 0 0 0 0
  McCain 695,746 36.04% 57 0 57 97
  Paul 62,356 3.23% 0 0 0 6
  Giuliani 283,360 14.68% 0 0 0 0
  Keyes 4,010 0.21% 0 0 0 0
  Tancredo 1,558 0.08% 0 0 0 0
    Hunter 2,820 0.15% 0 0 0 0

And here’s a chart of the current delegate count (I’m assuming that Giuliani’s 2 will go to McCain, but until that becomes semi-official, I just won’t count them.  Here’s what’s changed: I took away Thompson’s 3 delegates from Iowa and Wyoming, and Hunter’s 1 from Wyoming.  Thompson lost 2 from Nevada and Giuliani lost 1 in Nevada and Maine, while Romney and McCain gained 1 in Kansas.  McCain also gained 1 in Idaho.

Republican Delegate Count as of 1-31-08

And here’s the Democratic Primary results:

Date State Candidate Votes % Delegates Superdelegates Total Delegates Delegate Count
29-Jan Florida Obama 571,333 32.89% 0 0 0 158
  Edwards 249,945 14.39% 0 0 0 62
  Clinton 865,099 49.80% 0 0 0 232
  Richardson 14,891 0.86% 0 0 0 0
  Dodd 5,432 0.31% 0 0 0 0
  Biden 15,599 0.90% 0 0 0 0
  Uncommitted 0.00% 0 0 0 0
  Kucinich 9,537 0.55% 0 0 0 0
    Gravel 5,264 0.30% 0 0 0 0

And here are the changes made to the delegate counts (I’ll take Edwards’s delegates away after his delegates either repledge themselves or unpledge themselves – kinda waiting on a possible endorsement): Obama gained 2 in California and 1 in Massachusetts, while Clinton gained 1 in New Mexico and 1 in the Virgin Islands.  Obama gained 1 in Maryland and Rhode Island, while Edwards gained 1 in Texas.  Obama gained a final pledge from Vermont.

Democratic Delegate Count as of 1-31-08

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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Prediction for Florida Primaries: Romney and Clinton Win

January 29, 2008

OK, here’s what the results for the Florida Republican primary should be according to my formula (3 more Republican polls came out over night, so the numbers in italics reflect those polls.  My prediction, however, will stay the same):

  1. McCain 34.873% 34.987%
  2. Romney 33.104% 34.717%
  3. Giuliani 13.926% 13.048%
  4. Huckabee 12.556% 12.598%
  5. Other 5.143% 4.789%

Margin of Error: 3.220% 3.268%

My prediction is:

  1. Romney: 34.5%
  2. McCain: 34%
  3. Giuliani: 14%
  4. Huckabee: 13.5%
  5. Paul: 4%

And here’s what the results for the Florida Democratic primary should be accordign to my formula:

  1. Clinton 52.851%
  2. Obama 29.883%
  3. Edwards 14.637%
  4. Other 2.575%

Margin of Error: 4.599%

My prediction:

  1. Clinton 52%
  2. Obama 30%
  3. Edwards 15%
  4. Other 3%

Both primaries are closed primaries, so I think that will help both Romney and Clinton.

Most polling locations open at 7:00 A.M. EST and close at 7:00 P.M. EST (some are in Central time and are an hour behind).

Unfortunately, I have meetings until about 9 tomorrow, so I may not be able to have a post up until then, but I’ll try my hardest.

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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Final Results from the South Carolina Democratic Primary

January 27, 2008

OK, all of the numbers are in, so here’s the final count from the South Carolina Democratic Primary:

Date State Candidate Votes % Delegates Superdelegates Total Delegates Delegate Count
26-Jan South Carolina Obama 295,214 55.44% 25 1 26 152
  Edwards 93,576 17.57% 8 0 8 61
  Clinton 141,217 26.52% 12 2 14 230
  Richardson 727 0.14% 0 0 0 0
  Dodd 247 0.05% 0 0 0 0
  Biden 694 0.13% 0 0 0 0
  Uncommitted 0.00% 0 0 0 0
  Kucinich 552 0.10% 0 0 0 0
    Gravel 241 0.05% 0 0 0 0

A couple of changes to the delegate count: Obama received a pledge from South Carolina; Clinton received 3 from Arizona, 2 from California, and 1 from Colorado.  Edwards lost one in Massachusetts (unless it was my error in awarding him one before) and gained 1 in Missouri.  Obama received 1 in New Mexico and Virginia, while Kucinich lost his only delegate which was in Ohio (since he dropped out).  Clinton gained 1 in Texas and Obama 1 in Mississippi.  Both Edwards and Clinton received a delegate from Pennsylvania, and Clinton received 1 from Kentucky and Puerto Rico.

Here’s a chart of the delegates:

Democratic Delegate Count as of 1-27-08

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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Final Results from Nevada and South Carolina

January 21, 2008

Here’s the results of the Republican side from yesterday, first the results from the Nevada caucus  (where the “Votes” category refers to state delegates) and then the South Carolina primary:

Date State Candidate Votes % Delegates RNC Delegates Total Delegates Delegate Count
19-Jan Nevada Huckabee 3,616 8.16% 2 0 2 31
State Delegates Romney 22,649 51.10% 18 0 18 68
  Thompson 3,521 7.94% 2 0 2 8
  McCain 5,651 12.75% 4 0 4 40
  Paul 6,087 13.73% 4 0 4 6
  Giuliani 1,910 4.31% 1 0 1 2
  Hunter 890 2.01% 0 0 0 1
   
  South Carolina Huckabee 128,908 29.91% 5 0 5
  Romney 64,970 15.08% 0 0 0
  Thompson 67,897 15.76% 0 0 0
  McCain 143,224 33.24% 19 0 19
  Paul 15,773 3.66% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 9,112 2.11% 0 0 0
    Hunter 1,035 0.24% 0 0 0

And here’s the chart for the current delegate count (just a note, my delegate count differs from CNN’s which many people use because they calculated Michigan’s incorrectly):

Republican Delegate Count as of 1-20-08

And here’s the results from Nevada for the Democrats (again the “Votes” are state delegates):

Date State Candidate Votes % Delegates Superdelegates Total Delegates Delegate Count
19-Jan Nevada Obama 4,773 45.19% 13 1 14 123
State Delegates Edwards 396 3.75% 0 0 0 52
  Clinton 5,355 50.71% 12 2 14 210
  Richardson 0 0.00% 0 0 0 1
  Dodd 0 0.00% 0 0 0 0
  Biden 0 0.00% 0 0 0 0
  Uncommitted 31 0.29% 0 0 0 0
  Kucinich 5 0.05% 0 0 0 1
  Other 1 0.01% 0 0 0  
    Gravel 0 0.00% 0 0 0 0

OK, some changes occurred since Richardson dropped out (Obama gained most, if not all of his delegates - I can’t tell for all of the states – such as California – but he at least got a 15 of Richardsons 19):

Clinton gained a Superdelegate from Iowa and Nevada while Obama gained 1 in Nevada as well.  Obama received a delegate from Alabama while Clinton gained a pledge from American Samoa.  Obama inherited Richardson’s Arizona delegate.  In California, Richardson’s 3 delegates became unpledged while Obama gained 6 and Clinton gained 4.  Obama received Richardson’s Colorado delegate.  In Connecticut, Obama and Clinton gained a delegate while Clinton gained 2 delegates in Delaware.  Obama received another delegate from Georgia, 5 from Illinois, 1 from Massachusetts, 2 in Minnesota, and 3 in Missouri where Richardson lost his delegate.  Clinton gained a delegate from New Jersey and Richardson’s 7 delegates from New Mexico and 1 from Oklahoma became unpledged.  Obama received a delegate from Tennessee and Clinton 1 from Louisiana.  Obama received another delegate from Nebraska, Maryland, and Virginia, while Clinton gained one in Maryland as well.  One of Richardson’s 4 delegates went to Texas while the other 3 became unpledged.  Obama received a delegate from Vermont and inherited Richardson’s one delegate from Pennsylvania.  North Carolina gave a delegate to Obama and Clinton.  And finally, Obama received one last pledge from South Dakota.

So, here’s the Democratic Delegate Count:

Democratic Delegate Count as of  1-20-08

I’ll give some updates on what else is going on in the near future for the elections – but right now I have to do another post on Ron Paul’s new fundraiser.  But I will do an analysis on Duncan Hunter’s drop out.  I think that he’ll probably endorse McCain if anybody.  He seems the closest to him.  Although it won’t do much, it could help Romney out if he can stay competetive through California and perhaps give him the needed 2-3% that will push him into winning.  Who knows – I’ll keep you updated.

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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Final Michigan Primary Results and Delegate Count

January 16, 2008

Alright, the results ARE now completely in…

Here are the results for the Republican primary:

Date State Candidate Votes % Delegates RNC Delegates Total Delegates Delegate Count
15-Jan Michigan Huckabee 139,699 16.11% 0 0 3 24
Romney 337,847 38.96% 12 0 20 50
Thompson 32,135 3.71% 0 0 0 6
McCain 257,521 29.70% 9 0 7 17
  Paul 54,434 6.28% 0 0 0 2
  Giuliani 24,706 2.85% 0 0 0 1
  Uncommitted 17,971 2.07% 0 0 0  
    Hunter 2,823 0.33% 0 0 0 1

And here’s the delegate count chart:

Corrected Republican Delegate Count as of 1-16-08

And here are the results of the Democrats’ primary:

Date State Candidate Votes % Delegates Superdelegates Total Delegates Delegate Count
15-Jan Michigan Obama 0 0.00% 0 0 0 78
  Edwards 0 0.00% 0 0 0 52
  Clinton 328,151 55.36% 0 0 0 183
  Richardson 0 0.00% 0 0 0 19
  Dodd 3,853 0.65% 0 0 0 0
  Biden 0 0.00% 0 0 0 0
  Uncommitted 236,723 39.93% 0 0 0 0
  Kucinich 21,708 3.66% 0 0 0 1
    Gravel 2,363 0.40% 0 0 0 0

* the light colored ones indicate people who weren’t on the ballot.

No chart, since no delegates were awarded for Michigan for the Democrats.

I was off by about 8% for Clinton; 3% for Uncommitted and Romney; and 1% for McCain when I predicted it at 9:00 P.M. last night (http://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2008/01/15/michigan-primary-results-for-900-pm-with-my-call/) and I was off by 3% for Clinton, 2% for Uncommitted, 1% for McCain, and 7% for Romney when I predicted it early yesterday morning (http://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2008/01/15/michigan-votes-today-my-statistical-analysis-of-the-primary/).

Today had a good “showing” by Edwards and Obama, going out there and promoting the Uncommitted choice VERY well (it won 2 counties).  It’s going to look pretty bad in the media tomorrow that Clinton only won by 15%.  And I don’t understand why the Uncommitted choice was so popular for Republicans (poor Duncan Hunter) – perhaps because it got so much attention on the Democrats’ side???

Tomorrow, I’ll have some county maps and such.

Now, on Saturday we’ll have the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary.  I’ll put up my predictions as well as some more statistical analysis later.

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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Final Statistical Analysis of Michigan’s Primary Polls

January 15, 2008

Here’s the final update, based on 2 more poll that were released after my earlier update (see here for some explanations: http://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2008/01/15/michigan-votes-today-my-statistical-analysis-of-the-primary/):

The current winner is highlighted in bold; the winner of my first analysis is underlined.

Analysis Method 

McCain Giuliani Romney Thompson Huckabee Other Undecided Margin of Error
Post-New Hampshire; No Undecided 30.495% 4.277% 31.712% 3.964% 15.439% 13.926% 3.929%
Post-New Hampshire 29.233% 4.100% 30.400% 3.800% 14.800% 13.350% 4.317% 3.767%
January; No Undecided 30.482% 3.550% 32.317% 4.486% 14.492% 14.041% 3.639%
January 28.237% 3.289% 29.937% 4.155% 13.425% 13.007% 7.951% 3.371%
Total 21.469% 8.031% 25.013% 6.824% 15.814% 9.368% 13.481% 3.917%

Done Analyzing,

Ranting Republican
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