Archive for the ‘Minnesota’ Category

Some Republican Governors Break Party Ranks and Support Stimulus Bill

February 6, 2009

Alright, this news article is a few days old, but since the Senate hasn’t voted on the stimulus package yet, it’s still applicable.  I read an AP article that a friend showed me, and while I won’t post the whole thing, I’ll highlight some key points.  The article talks about Republican Governors who are urging Congress to pass the stimulus bill.  The full article can be read here.  Then I went looking for more positions on the bill and found a few other governors’ positions.

Here’s what some of the Republican Governors have said:

  • Vermont Governor Jim Douglas went to Washington, D.C. earlier this week to push the Senate to pass the bill.  His deputy chief of staff, Dennise Casey told the AP, “As the executive of a state experiencing budget challenges, Governor Douglas has a different perspective on the situation than congressional Republicans.”  On another occasion, Douglas said that he “believes that the federal government should pass some form of federal recovery to assist states that are struggling right now.”
  • Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty said, “States have to balance their budgets.  So if we’re going to go down this path, we are entitled to ask for our share of the money.”  He did go on to say later though, “I’m quite concerned about the federal government spending money it doesn’t have.  We’re on an unsustainable path of deficit spending and borrowing.”  A spokesman for Pawlenty also said, “Governor Pawlenty has serious concerns about the stimulus package passed by the House.  He believes the bill should focus more on tax cuts and addressing the housing crisis and not the buffet of Democrat spending initiatives the bill now contains.If a bill does pass, Minnesota will accept its share of the money because we are a significant net contributor to the federal government.  A study shows Minnesota receives about 72 cents for every $1 sent to Washington – so we’re paying more than our fair share.”
  • Alaska Governor Sarah Palin released a statement saying that she “has asked the nation’s leaders to look at these issues to ensure fairness in the stimulus package and that the package does not harm the long-term fiscal health of the nation.  Contrary to some news reports, she looks forward to continuing to work with Alaska’s congressional delegation to accomplish the state’s goals.”
  • Nevada Governor Jim Gibbons’s spokesman told reporters, “The state of Nevada’s economy is in a deep financial crisis and any financial assistance, including the stimulus package, would be welcome.”
  • Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell “supports the idea of a federal stimulus intended to help states create jobs and help states pay for soaring health care costs.  She has written Congressional leaders as well as the state’s delegation on several occasions advocating for such a package; in fact, as far back as Senator Lieberman’s Subcommittee hearing last March on corn, ethanol prices and the food supply, she mentioned in written testimony provided to the Subcommittee that some form of second stimulus package was needed.”
  • Florida Governor Charlie Crist  also backed the plan, saying, “If it passes, which I believe and I hope that it will, I want to make sure that Florida gets her fair share.  I know it’s important in terms of infrastructure, education, making sure that we have good roads that are stable and strong, bridges that are secure, that we have an education system that is second to none.”
  • 19 governors sent a letter to President Obama supporting the stimulus package, including 4 Republican governors: Arnold Schwarzenegger (CA), Jodi Rell, Charlie Crist, and Jim Douglas.

Personally, I am ASHAMED of those Republican governors!  Just because they can’t get their state to balance their budget doesn’t mean that MY tax dollars should go toward stimulating their state.  Heck! I’m from Michigan – we probably need the money more than any other state, but you don’t see me going around saying, my state deserves YOUR tax dollars.  And the fact is, my state doesn’t deserve your tax dollars.  We got ourselves into this, we need to get ourselves out.  Spending money through some pork bill is NOT going to stimulate the economy!

Stand up to this wasteful spending.  I encourage all of you to call up your Senators and Governors and express concern over this bill.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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1 Day to Go: Final Senate Prediction: Democrats Gain 7 Seats

November 3, 2008

Here’s my Senate prediction. I already did my Presidential election prediction as well as my gubernatorial elections prediction.  The colors ARE switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it.  The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here.  On to the predictions…

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Democrats: 19 (+7)
Republicans: 14 (-7)
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races

First, a note about Wyoming and Mississippi:

  • Wyoming has 2 races, Michael Enzi (R) against Chris Rothfuss (D) and John Barasso (R) against Nick Carter (D).  I expect both Republicans to win with results around 63%.
  • Mississippi has 2 races.  The maps are predictions for Thad Cochran (R) against Erik Fleming (D). In the election between Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D), I expect Wicker to win with around 55%, a much closer race than the other.

Alright, so let’s look at the states where people may disagree with me:

  • Arkansas: Mark Pryor is unopposed by a Republican. Rebekah Kennedy (Green) is the only opponent, so that’s why I have it so high. It’s not a mistake.
  • Alaska: 2 predictions ago, I had it going to “Uncle Ted” Stevens. Then, the jury found him guilty. I changed my prediction on the U.S. Election Atlas website, but didn’t repost a prediction here (although I did write a blog post saying that Mark Begich would win). Then, I started thinking, and I think Stevens will pull it off. Then, last prediction, I said, “I know the polls disagree (but the Research 2000 poll showing him down 22% is just wrong), but I don’t see Alaskans voting out Uncle Ted.”  Well, I just can’t justify keeping it in Uncle Ted’s column anymore.  I think it’s going to go to Mark Begich, but I’m not confident enough to put it in the “Strong” column.
  • Minnesota: I’m now confident enough in my call for Coleman, and he has been slightly leading in the polls.
  • North Carolina: I think Elizabeth Dole’s attack ad on Kay Hagan gave Hagan the edge she’ll need to win, but still I’m not confident enough to put it in the “Strong” column.

Now, the map indicating the confidence that I have that my prediction is right:

Democrats: 19 (+7)
Republicans: 14 (-7)
Tossup: 3
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races

Alright, so what changes did I make since last time, and why? Here they are:

State

Previous

Current

Reasoning

AK

R50T

D50L

I think the guilty verdict finally did it in for him.  Although I’m not going to mark it as “Strong” because those Alaskan’s sure love their Uncle Ted, and weirder things have happened.

MN

R40T

R40L

I think I’m confident enough to take it out of the Toss-Up category now.

NC

D50T

D50L

Again, I’m confident enough to make this a “Lean” instead of “Toss-Up.”

Well, there you have it – my Senatorial prediction.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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4 Days to Go: Senate Prediction: Democrats Gain 6 Seats

October 31, 2008

Here’s my Senate prediction.  I already did my Presidential election prediction as well as the Gubernatorial Elections prediction.  The colors ARE switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it.  The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here.  On to the predictions…

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Democrats: 16 (+6)
Republicans: 19 (-6)
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races

First, a note about Wyoming and Mississippi:

  • Wyoming has 2 races, Michael Enzi (R) against Chris Rothfuss (D) and John Barasso (R) against Nick Carter (D). I expect both Republicans to win with results around 63%.
  • Mississippi has 2 races. The maps are predictions for Thad Cochran (R) against Erik Fleming (D). In the election between Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D), I expect Wicker to win with around 51%, a much closer race than the other.

Alright, so let’s look at the states where people may disagree with me:

  • Arkansas: Mark Pryor is unopposed by a Republican.  Rebekah Kennedy (Green) is the only opponent, so that’s why I have it so high.  It’s not a mistake.
  • Alaska: Last prediction, I had it going to “Uncle Ted” Stevens.  Then, the jury found him guilty.  I changed my prediction on the U.S. Election Atlas website, but didn’t repost a prediction here (although I did write a blog post saying that Mark Begich would win).  Then, I started thinking, and I think Stevens will pull it off.  I know the polls disagree (but the Research 2000 poll showing him down 22% is just wrong), but I don’t see Alaskans voting out Uncle Ted.
  • Minnesota: Again, like last time, for every poll that comes out showing Franken ahead, a poll comes out showing Coleman ahead by the same amount.  Right now, it’s just too close to call, so I’ll keep it where I had it last week.

Now, the map indicating the confidence that I have that my prediction is right:

Democrats: 16 (+5)
Republicans: 19 (-5)
Tossup: 3
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races

Alright, so what changes did I make since last time, and why?  Here they are:

State

Previous

Current

Reasoning

AK

D50L

R50T

I don’t think they’ll vote “Uncle Ted” out.

IA

D50S

D60S

It looks like Tom Harkin will reach 60% here.

KY

R50L

R50S

Mitch McConnell seems to be making a stronger comeback, back from when it was looking like a close race.  I think he’s now safe for sure.

NE

R60S

R50S

I think this an oversight the first time I did the predictions.

NM

D60S

D50S

I think Steve Pearce (R) has gained enough support that he’ll keep Tom Udall (D) from getting above 60%.

NC

R50T

D50T

Elizabeth Dole’s “Godless” attack ad against Kay Hagan was found out to be less than true.  I think there’ll be big backlash against Dole, and I think it’ll go to Hagan, but it is still a little bit too close to call in my opinion.

OR

R40T

D50S

Like I said last week, if Gordon Smith (R) didn’t pull ahead (as he was looking like he might), I was going to slide it over to Jeff Merkley, and that’s what I did.

By Monday, when I do my final update, I should be able to take North Carolina out of the toss-up category, and if more polls come out with Begich leading by a huge margin in Alaska, I’ll switch it back to Begich.  I don’t think I’ll be able to take Minnesota out of the toss-up category, but Al Franken’s latest campaign ad controversy may help Coleman, and I may be able to slide it to the “Lean” category.

Come back here on Monday for my final prediction.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican

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2 Weeks Away: Senate Prediction: Democrats Gain 4 Seats

October 21, 2008

Well, just like the Presidential prediction, here are my predictions for the Senate races (percentages is the first map, with confidence being the second map).  The colors ARE switched from what the normal media colors, so sorry about that, but that’s the way the website I use does it.  The maps are courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas, and my most current prediction can always be found here.  On to the predictions…

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Democrats: 16 (+4)
Republicans: 19 (-4)
Light gray indicates states with no Senate races

First, a note about Wyoming and Mississippi:

  • Wyoming has 2 races, Michael Enzi (R) against Chris Rothfuss (D) and John Barasso (R) against Nick Carter (D).  I expect both Republicans to win with results around 63%.
  • Mississippi has 2 races.  The maps are predictions for Thad Cochran (R) against Erik Fleming (D).  In the election between Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D), I expect Wicker to win with around 51%, a much closer race than the other.

So, let’s have a little discussion about the states that some people might disagree with me over:

  • Arkansas: Mark Pryor is unopposed by a Republican.  Rebekah Kennedy (Green) is the only opponent.
  • Alaska: As much as I dislike him, and as much as he’s done wrong, I don’t see Alaskans voting “Uncle Ted” out of office.
  • Minnesota: Had it not been for recent polls showing Norm Coleman ahead again, I would’ve given this to Al Franken.  It could easily go back before the election though.
  • North Carolina: I don’t see voters voting Elizabeth Dole out.  They may say so in the polls now, but I think she’ll win.
  • Oregon: Probably the toughest call I had to make.  I only gave it to Gordon Smith because he’s been trending upward in the polls, but by next week, if he’s not ahead, I’ll be switching this over to Jeff Merkley.

Now, my confidence map:

So, again, like my Presidential prediction, I’ll be updating this one next Tuesday, if not before.

The Democrats could win as many as 8 new seats, but I don’t see them winning any more than maybe 6.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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Live Analysis of the Senate Vote on the New Bailout Bill: Bill Passes

October 1, 2008

Alright, so I’ve been watching C-SPAN throughout the day as much as I could, and saw everything from the US-India nuclear agreement and the Amtrak bill to the discussion on the Financial Industry Bailout bill.  They’ll be voting on that next, and I’ll be live blogging as they vote, whether it looks like it’ll pass or fail.  The rumor is that it’s expected to pass the 60-vote threshold, since they added some tax cut packages; however, these packages were rejected earlier in the week by the house, so it may clear the Senate, but fail the House by more than H.R. 3997 did.

This is now discussion on H.R. 1424, the Paul Wellstone (former Senator from MN) Mental Health and Addiction Equity Act of 2007:

Bernie Sanders (I-VT), speaking for an amendment on the bailout bill, although he’s stated that he is against the bailout bill overall.

Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH), now speaking that the current bill is a good bill, and it’s “necessary that we pass it now.”  He is saying that Senator Sanders amendment would be bad for taxpayers.

Vote on the Amendment:

The Noes have it.

Senator Harry Reid (D-NV), now speaking.  Saying that it’s the waning hours of the Senate, and that the Senators depend on their staff a lot, talking about them working unbelievable hours: “they make this place operate.”  Talking about the Legislative Clerk, David Tinsley.  Thanking him for his service.

Mitch McConnell (R-KY), now wishing Tinsley well in his retirement.

McConnell now speaking again, there’s 2 minutes to each side.  Talking about the bipartisan work in coming together to build a bill to resolve this financial crisis.  Saying that Senators Gregg and Dodd (who were appointed as designees for delegating time for discussion, etc) did a good job on the bill.  Saying that this will help resolve the “problems facing mainstream Americans.”  Saying that “we came together” in the middle of an election year.  He’s congratulating Senators for coming together and urges the passage of the bill.

Senator Reid: Is now reading letters from people who have written in to him, regarding the financial bill.  Saying that this bill isn’t for Wall Street, but for families across America.  Well, Mr. Reid, it may not be for them, but it’s going to benefit them for a time, and ultimately hurt American families.  Talking about keeping taxpayers first.  But this isn’t going to keep taxpayers safe.  He’s saying it’s an investment, but this will only set precedent for further government losses.  He’s talking about giving help to people who will have their homes foreclosed on, but it’s their fault they bought houses the couldn’t afford.  We have to draw the line, and helping people avoid foreclosure will only set precedent and make the situation worse.  Talking about getting alternative energy (BUT HE DIDN’T MENTION NUCLEAR!).  Talking about how much land in Nevada is owned by the government – 87% of the land is owned by the federal government, and 40% is no-flyover – I never realized it’s so much!  Some Senator’s cell phone went off.  Now talking about “each Senator … facing a critical test of leadership” tonight.  “Help is on the way.”

They’re voting now on an amendment to H.R. 1424 (a mental health bill which also had a tax break section added into it, as I said above), which will add the Emergency Economic Stabalization section to the bill – I thought McConnell had leader time to speak still???

Calling the roll:

Akaka: Aye

Alexander: Aye

Barasso: Aye

Baucus: Aye

Bayh: Aye

Bennett: Aye

Bingamen: Aye

Boxer: Aye

Brown: Aye

Brownback: No

Burr: Aye

Cantwell: No

Cardin: Aye

Casey: Aye

Clinton: Aye

Cockren: No

Coleman: Aye

Collins: Aye

Conrad: Aye

Corker: Aye

Cornyn: Aye

Craig: Aye

Crapo: No

Dodd: Aye

Dole: No

Domenici: Aye

Dorgan: No

Durbin: Aye

Ensign: Aye

Enzi: No

Feingold: No – WHAT!

Feinstein: Aye

Grassley: Aye

Gregg: Aye

Hagel: Aye – DANG IT!

Harkin: Aye

Hatch: Aye

Hutchison: Aye

Inhofe: No

Inouy: Aye

Isakson: Aye

Kerry: Aye

Flobecarh: Aye

Cole: Aye

Kyle: Aye

Landreau: No

Lautenberg: Aye

Levin: Aye

Lieberman: Aye

Lincoln: Aye

Luger: Aye

Martinez: Aye

McCain: Aye

McCaskill: Aye

McConnell: Aye

Menendez: Aye

McCulski: Aye

Murkowski: Aye

Murray: Aye

Nelson (FL): No

Obama: Aye

Pryor: Aye

Reed: Aye

Reid: Aye

Roberts: No

Salazar: Aye

Sanders: No

Schumer: Aye

Sessions: No

Shelby: No

Smith: Aye

Snowe: Aye

Specter: Aye

Stabenow: No

Stevens: Aye

Sununu: Aye

Tester: No

Thune: Aye

Vitter: No

Voinovich: Aye

Warner: Aye

Webb: Aye

Whitehouse: Aye

Wicker: No

Widen: No

Biden: Aye

Bunning: No

Borasso: No

Byrd: Aye

Coburn: Aye

Demint: No

Johnson: No

Allard: No

Chambliss: Aye

Lahey: Aye

Graham: Aye

Bond: Aye

Nelseon (NE): Aye

Carper: Aye

The vote passes 74-25.  The Amendment having 60 votes, the amendment is agreed to.  (I later found out that Senator Ted Kennedy was not present tonight, as he is having medical difficulties.  My thoughts and prayers go out to the Senator).

Reid is now speaking, saying he’s happy with tonight’s vote.  “When we work together, we can accomplish good things. … Thank you” to everyone.

Now the vote on HR 1424, a Mental Health Bill which now includes the above amendment.  This bill is expeced to pass.

Akaka: Aye

Alexander: Aye

Allard: Aye

Barasso: No

Bayh

And I’ve lost sound on C-SPAN??  It’s too hard to keep up with her on this one – I’ll summarize it once they’re done voting.

And we’ve now lost all sound from C-SPAN, so I’m clueless as to what’s going on.  The vote tally listed on the screen is for the amendment to the bill, so I’m not sure if the bill is passing as of now or not, but as I said above, this bill is expected to pass.  It’s funny, the media is now reporting that the Senate passed the bailout bill, although all they actually did was add it on to another bill, which they’re just voting on now.

Lieberman: Aye

It passed 74-25.  The bill, as amended, has passed, having obtained 60 votes.

I’m guessing that the votes were the same as on the amendment.

And they’re moving on to other business.  I’m done!

I really don’t think this bill should’ve passed.  Obviously I think it’s better than the first bill, but I’m still not happy with it.  We’ll see what happen in the House later this week.

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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Holy Crap! This Election Could Get Weird: An Electoral College Tie? Acting President Pelosi?

September 25, 2008

So, I’ve been looking through polls lately, and the way it stands now, if Obama holds all the states he currently has, and McCain picks up all the tossup states, we’d have an Electoral College tie (assuming that all the electors keep their promise to vote for their party).

Let’s look at the map (courtesy of my favorite election website, the U.S. Election Atlas) of the current polls (note, that first link may be different than the image below.  That link goes to the updated version of the polls.  The image below is an image that I created inputting the different numbers):

Electoral Votes:
Obama: 269
McCain: 212
Tossup: 57

Now, these are the averages of the last 3 polls.  I have a couple disagreements with the polls:

  • Pennsylvania is not slight Obama.  I think it should be Lean Dem.
  • Michigan is not Lean Dem.  It should be slight Dem.  There was a recent poll that had Obama way more ahead than he really is, and I think it’s skewing the results.
  • Florida isn’t Slight Rep.  I think it’s Lean Rep.
  • West Virginia isn’t Slight Rep.  It should also be Lean Rep in my opinion.
  • I don’t think Minnesota is Slight Dem.  I think it should probably be Lean Dem.
  • Montana should be Strong Rep not Lean Rep, but there were a couple polls throwing that off.
  • Nevada should probably be Slight McCain in all honesty, but I’ll talk about that later.

Other than that, I agree with this map.  So, let’s take a look at the tossup states:

  • Nevada: Although it’s close, most recent polls have shown McCain with a slight lead here.  I wouldn’t be surprised if that switches over to slight McCain in the next 3 days (whenever a poll comes out).  It’s really only a tossup because of an ARG (American Research Group) poll, and they’re a pretty crappy polling firm.  My call: McCain +5.  That puts him at 217.
  • North Carolina: Freakishly close lately, and it’s a state that we wouldn’t expect to be close.  However, I think this’ll trend back toward McCain as we get closer to Election day.  My call: McCain +15.  That puts him at 232.
  • Virginia: Similar to Nevada, most polls have shown McCain with a lead here.  I think we simply have some outliers, and as more polls come out, we’ll see that swing back to Slight McCain.  My call: McCain +13.  That puts McCain at 245.
  • New Hampshire: Most polls have had Obama winning, but recently it’s been trending toward McCain, and then McCain took the lead (granted one of those was an ARG poll, so we can ignore one of the three that had McCain winning).  This may be more of a gut feeling than actual math, but I think New Hampshire will go for McCain.  My call: McCain +4.  That gives him 249.
  • Ohio: Now, here’s the exciting one.  This has been by far the closest state in this election.  Polls have had Obama and McCain ahead of each other, as well as simply tied.  Trying to call this right now is really probably a shot in the dark, but because McCain has an ever so slight lead here, I’m going to make my call: McCain +20.  That would give McCain 269.  And the two are now tied.

I think we need to talk a little more about one last state: Michigan, my home state.  Although it’s not this way on the map, I said that I think Michigan is the only Slight Obama state.  I think it’s the only current Obama state that could be in play.  With a rough economy, a lot could happen, and the economy has been effecting Michigan the worst.  If Michigan were to go for McCain, McCain could then afford to lose either North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, or Nevada and New Hampshire.  If he won Michigan, but lost Virginia and New Hampshire (also a very good possibility), we would once AGAIN have a tie.

So, what’s my honest prediction?  I’m glad you asked.  I’ll show you (since this’ll get outdated, I’m sure, here’s a link to my prediction page, which will have my latest prediction on it):

Percentages:

Electoral Votes:
Obama: 269
McCain: 269

 

Confidence:

Electoral Votes:
Obama: 252
McCain: 227
Tossup: 59

 

So, what would happen if my prediction comes true?

  1. Assuming that we don’t have any faithless electors (electors who don’t vote the way they’re supposed to), and I don’t think we will–any faithless elector is pretty much asking to be assassinated: The vote would go to the House of Representatives.  But they do things kinda funky when they vote.  They don’t vote individually, they vote by state delegation, so it’s winner take all, but the Representatives decide, not the voters.  Here’s a map of the current House:

    The Republicans hold 21 of those, the Democrats hold 27, and 2 are tied.  You need 26 to win (50 states, so 1 more than half).  Obama wins, right?  Well, hold on a minute.  There’s a couple of things we have to keep in mind:

    1. Alaska could easily be won by the Democrat this year.  That’d be one more for Obama.
    2. Arizona, a tied state, could easily go to the Republican side.  Even if it doesn’t, a Democrat may be swayed to vote for the “home state boy.”  I’m pretty confident that we can add Arizona to McCain’s pile.  McCain has 22.
    3. Indiana could easily go over to the Republicans.  For now, I’ll keep Indiana in Obama’s pile.
    4. So, we have Obama with 27, McCain with 22, and 1 tie.  I think Kansas would go for McCain, making it 27, 23.  Obama wins, right?  Again, slow down.
    5. 4 of Obama’s delegations are in the south.  I don’t see the Tennessee, North Carolina, or Mississippi delegations voting for an African American.  That makes it Obama 24, McCain 26.  McCain wins.  However, there are enough Democrats in Mississippi that there’s an EVER SO SLIGHT possibility that it’d go for Obama.  That leaves us at 25-25.
  2. If we get to 25-25, they’d keep voting.  If they never break the tie…
  3. While the House was voting on President, the Senate would have elected the Vice-President, and we’d have acting President Biden/Palin.  As it stands now, it’d probably be a tie.  You have 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans, plus Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT).  Sanders votes with the Democrats (he caucuses with them, so he would vote with them on this).  Lieberman, who caucuses with the Democrats votes for McCain.  I don’t doubt this, he’s endorsed him.  That gives us 50-50. 
  4. We then have acting President Nany Pelosi, since Speaker of the House is next in line.  Scary, I know.
  5. One litle note I forgot to put in here – the House has until March 4th to come up with a President.  If they don’t by then, then the acting President (whether that be the VP choice that the Senate made or the Speaker of the House) becomes the President.

Not only is this scenario extremely complicated, it’s historically unprecedented, but it actually has a decent chance of happening.  I shudder to think that Pelosi could be President, but this would be one heck of a story for the history books.

I’ll hopefully becoming out with Predictions once a week, as more polls and details come in, and as we get closer to the election.  I’ll also be covering the debate tomorrow night, live, so come back here for lots more election fun.

Done Hypothetically Situating,

Ranting Republican
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Ron Paul to Endorse a Presidential Candidate Tomorrow

September 9, 2008

Well, earlier today, Ron Paul’s Campaign for Liberty put out the following press release:

Ron Paul to Hold Major
Press Conference Wednesday

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                           CONTACT: Jesse Benton
September 8, 2008

ALEXANDRIA, VIRGINIA – Congressman Ron Paul will hold a press conference in the Ball Room at the National Press Club on Wednesday, September 10th at 10:00 am. Dr. Paul will announce his intentions for the fall presidential election and will be accompanied by several special guests.

This event comes on the heels of Dr. Paul’s historic three-day Rally for the Republic in Minneapolis, Minnesota that drew over 12,000 supporters.

-30-

It has been rumored that any or several of the following Presidential candidates may be there: Bob Barr (Lib), Ralph Nader (I), Chuck Baldwin (Con), and Cynthia McKinney (Green) will be there.

Ron Paul’s spokesman apparently told reporters that Paul will give something of an endorsement [with] a real effect on this fall’s election.”

Unfortunately, I’m in class until 10:50, but I may bring my laptop with me to class (it’s a poli-sci class, so my professor wouldn’t mind).

As the press release said, thid DOES come after the Rally for the Republic, Paul’s non-RNC, in Minneapolis, MN.

I have talked with a few Paul supporters who are saying that tomorrow’s announcement may be a third party candidacy announcement, and some Paul supporters remain optimistic, but I don’t expect anything more than an endorsement of Bob Barr and  maybe Baldwin.  McKinney and Nader’s names were thrown in there for possible endorsements, but I HIGHLY doubt Paul would ever endorse either of them.

I’ll keep you updated.  If I don’t have anything up by 10:15 A.M. EDT tomorrow, expect something by 11:15.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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Live Analysis of McCain’s Speech Officially Making Sarah Palin His Running Mate

August 29, 2008

I’m watching the live speech in Dayton, Ohio, waiting for McCain and Palin to come out.

Until then, I’ll give  some thoughts about the pick of Palin:

  • It definitely puts some of the angry Clinton supporters back into play.
  • I think it hurts McCain’s chances of winning Michigan now.  I think Romney would’ve been a much better pick to help McCain win Michigan.
  • This really takes experience off the table, since she’s in her first term as Governor (although Governor is a better position to have when running for President than a legislator).
  • She’ll secure the religious right voters.
  • She’s going to have some pull with women, and that’ll really help McCain.

Alright, here the speech goes.  John and Cindy are coming out.  And the crowd loves him.  He’s getting birthday wishes.  They’re singing happy birthday to him, for the third time now.

“I’m very happy today, to spend my birthday with you, and make a historic announcement in Dayton.”

“I found someone with an outstanding reputation” for ending corruption, executive experience, using tax dollars well and cutting taxes, reaching across the aisle, “someone with strong principles, a fighting spirit, and deep compassion.”  Well, that was a very good description to sell a VP candidate who’s somewhat of a rookie to politics.

Talking about her and her husband being union members in the past, and knowing what people are going though today.  Talking about her winning “on a message of reform and public integrity.”  Now talking about celebrating the anniversary of women’s suffrage – and that got a great response from the crowd.

“She’s not from these parts, and she’s not from Washington, but when you get to know her, you’re gonna be as impressed as I am.”

“She knows where she comes from and she knows who she works for.  She knows what’s right and she doesn’t let anyone tell her to sit down.”

“She’s exactly who I need.  She’s exactly who this country needs.  To help me fight the same old Washington politics of ‘Me first and country second.'”

“My friends, I am very pleased to introduce to you, the next Vice President of the United States, Governor Sarah Palin of the great state fo Alaska.”

And Sarah is walking out now.  Getting a great reception from the crowd.

“Thank you so much!”  And the crowd continues to love her.

“Senator, I am honored to be chosen as your running mate.”

And I have to go to class – sorry, I’ll post more stuff about this late hopefully.

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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John McCain Picks Alaska Senator Sarah Palin as His Running Mate

August 29, 2008

Well, holy crap!  I never expected to see this.  I was in the bookstore coming back from class and this broke in, so I got what I needed and rushed back to my room.  I mean – holy crap, I never expected this.

I was expecting Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty, but NEVER Sarah Palin.  Her Intrade stock has now skyrocketed to 98.3.

I truly am shocked.  I’ve done some quick Googling to find out more about her – she looks like a pretty cool governor, and all the news stations have been talking about her being a reformer and ending corruption in the party and the state.

This was a very last minute thing.  Her Intrade stock opened at 6.1 this morning, and quickly skyrocketed to 80.  Then by 9:30 it was down near 30.  Then it skyrocketed back up in is  nearly at 100.

I’ll try to get McCain’s speech formally announcing this, but the McCain campaign has confirmed that she is the pick.

Here’s a copy of the press release the McCain campaign sent out:

John McCain Selects Alaska Governor Sarah Palin As Vice Presidential Running Mate

 

ARLINGTON, VA — U.S. Senator John McCain today announced that he has selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate and to serve as his vice president.

Governor Palin is a tough executive who has demonstrated during her time in office that she is ready to be president. She has brought Republicans and Democrats together within her Administration and has a record of delivering on the change and reform that we need in Washington.

Governor Palin has challenged the influence of the big oil companies while fighting for the development of new energy resources. She leads a state that matters to every one of us — Alaska has significant energy resources and she has been a leader in the fight to make America energy independent.

In Alaska, Governor Palin challenged a corrupt system and passed a landmark ethics reform bill. She has actually used her veto and cut budgetary spending. She put a stop to the “bridge to nowhere” that would have cost taxpayers $400 million dollars.

As the head of Alaska’s National Guard and as the mother of a soldier herself, Governor Palin understands what it takes to lead our nation and she understands the importance of supporting our troops.

Governor Palin has the record of reform and bipartisanship that others can only speak of. Her experience in shaking up the status quo is exactly what is needed in Washington today.

 

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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Republican National Convention May Be Postponed Due to Hurricane Gustav

August 29, 2008

There are now rumors flying around that the Republican Party may postpone the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, because of Tropical Storm Gustav, which is headed toward the Gulf Coast (possibly New Orleans, but almost certainly somewhere in Louisiana), and will most likely be a hurricane by the end of this week (as of now, the National Hurricane Center is saying Category 1 or 2).

Not only would this create a problem for the party, due to a some speakers being unavailable (President Bush, Governor Bobby Jindal [R-LA], and others), but it would also look bad to see news stories about Republicans celebrating and people dying and having homes destroyed in a hurricane.

Although the media would just naturally have to report both stories, and people would correlate this situation with Hurricane Katrina, I hope that Obama (or other Democrats) wouldn’t attack McCain (or Republicans as a whole) for not postponing the convention (ultimately it’s not his choice), because that would be extremely low.  Conventions can’t be postponed because of a natural disaster, and  hurricanes are a common thing in the month of August.  The Democrats wouldn’t have postponed it, but the whole Katrina fiasco (which was actually more of Ray Nagin and Governor Kathleen Blanco’s fault than Bush’s) would seem to be replayed here.

Matt Burns, a spokesman for the RNC told reporters on Tuesday, “We are planning for our convention to open on Monday.  Like all Americans, we are monitoring the situation closely in the Gulf.”

An anonymous GOP official told reporters, “You would have to dramatically change the nature of what you do. Much less partisan. Much less political.  Otherwise, it’s the elephant in the room.”

There is also one other possible reason that the convention would be postponed: Bobby Jindal getting the pick for running mate.  Although unlikely, his name has been tossed in the hat of possible picks.  I won’t be surprised if rumors of a postponement will make his Intrade stock scores take a jump later on today as this story gets picked up by the mainstream media.

However, I have also heard that it would be political gold if Jindal was picked and then left the convention to go back to Louisiana.

Personally, I still think Mitt Romney (R-MA), but maybe Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) will be the choice.

I’ll keep you updated as this situation continues.

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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