Archive for the ‘Delaware’ Category

4 Days to Go: My Presidential Election Prediction: Obama 291, McCain 247

October 31, 2008

Alright, so last Tuesday, I did a prediction for the Presidential election, predicting an Obama with victory of 286-252, and said I’d update it this Tuesday.  Well, I got a little busy, but here’s my updated prediction.  I’ve also done a prediction for the Senate and Gubernatorial elections.

The maps are provided courtesy of Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas (and you can find the most updated version of my prediction on that website here).  The colors on this website are switched from the normal colors (and I’m too lazy to switch them back to the normal colors – but back in the 1980s, these colors were the colors that the  media used). 

Alright, on to the predictions…

Obama – 291
McCain – 247

So, the states where you might disagree with my position:

  • Ohio: As the current trand of the past week keeps up, it’ll come out right about tied.  I think McCain’s last minute blitz campaigning will help him pull out just BARELY on top.
  • Misssouri, McCain has been leading recently, baring a few polls.
  • North Carolina: I was unsure last week, and I’m still unsure this week.  I really haven’t changed my opinion on this.  I’ll make a hopefully more final decision when I do my final prediction on Monday.  As of now, I think it’ll just barely go to McCain.
  • Florida: Despite Obama’s recent lead in the polls, I think McCain will come back and win here, but if Obama continues to increase his lead, I’ll switch it over to him.

Now, the map indicating the confidence that I have that my prediction is right:

Obama – 291
McCain – 185
Tossup – 62

Now, how has this map changed since my last map? Here’s a chart of the changes:

State

Previous

Current

Reasoning

AK

R60S

R50S

Doesn’t look like McCain will reach 60%.

AZ

R60S

R50S

Doesn’t look like McCain will reach 60%

CA

D50S

D60S

Looks like Obama will manage to reach 60% here.

DE

D50S

D60S

Looks like Obama will manage to reach 60% here.

IN

R50S

D40L

More and more polls are coming out showing that Indiana is going to go to Obama.  I’m not exactly 100% sure yet, but it’s looking like it’ll be decently hard for McCain to come back and be able to win here.

NV

R40T

D50L

Again, like Indiana, the polls just don’t look like McCain will win here.  Originally, I was predicting a declaration of Obama’s victory early in the night and thought that less Obama supporters in Nevada would show up, but Obama has now garnered enough support here in Nevada, that an early victory declaration won’t give McCain a victory in Nevada.

PA

D50S

D50L

Originally, this looked really strong for Obama, but then all 4 candidates (President and VP) headed to Pennsylvania to campaign, which made me suspicious as to Obama’s strength there.  Combined with a blitz of campaigning here on McCain’s part plus Representative John Murtha’s comments about West Pennsylvania, I’m switching this over to the “Lean” category, but I’m still confident that Obama will win.

TN

R60S

R50S

Doesn’t look like McCain will reach 60%.

ME CD1

D50S

D60S

Based on recent polls that broke down demographic areas of the state, it looks like Obama will reach 60% here, but I don’t think he will in District 2 or on a statewide level.

So, at this point, I think it’ll take a small miracle for McCain to win.  All of the states that are toss-ups, I have going to McCain, so, in theory, if the toss-up states go to Obama, Obama would win 353-185.

I’ll do a final prediction on Monday, so check back for my final prediction.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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Live Analysis of the October 7th Presidential Debate

October 7, 2008

Alright, we’re about 3 minutes away from tonight’s Presidential debate.  This one will be held in Belmont University in Nashville, TN.  Tonight, I’ll again be watching CNN and  the focus group will be undecided voters in Ohio (this time it’ll be broken up by men and women).  Tonight’s moderator will be NBC’s Tom Brokaw.

Alright, we’re now starting.

Allen Shaffer: “What’s the fastest solution to bail out” citizens, from economic turmoil?

Obama: We’re in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and many of you are worried.  This is the final burden on the failed economic policies of the last 8 years.  McCain agreed with Bush, and stripped regulations, and now we’re paying for it.  Step 1: Make sure last week’s rescue package succeeds.  Come on Obama, it won’t – the package sucked!  The focus group is liking this.  Step 2: Tax cuts for citizens.  Help people stay in their homes.  Help states create jobs.  Health care.  Have politicians thinking about middle class.  Women really loved him, and men were pretty high up there too.

McCain: Americans are angry and upset and fearful.  I have a plan to fix this problem: energy independence.  Don’t send money to countries who don’t like us.  “Let’s not raise taxes on anybody–today.”  What was that – what was that “today” – that sounded bad.  “We’re gonna have to do something about home values.”  People can’t afford mortgage payments (well, that’s mainly their fault).  Have government buy up bad mortgages so people can pay them off – come on McCain – that plan sucks.  People had been liking him a lot there (more men than women), but it dropped down a bit toward the end.

Brokaw: Who would you appoint to Treasury Secretary?

McCain: Not you Tom.

Brokaw: With good reason.

McCain: Somebody who people can connect with.  Meg Whitman – CEO of some company – oh – Ebay.

Obama: Warren Buffett would be a good person, but there are others as well.  McCain said, “The fundamentals of the economy are sound.”  That’s because they are.  The principles of our economy, and the American work ethic is sound.

Oliver Clark: How will the bailout bill help people?

McCain: “You described bailout, I believe it’s rescue.”  I left my campaign to go back to Washington to make sure that there were protections for the taxpayer – oversight and a way to pay back taxpayers.  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are what lit this thing on fire, and many hadn’t heard of them before this crisis.  Democrats in Congress defended what Fannie and Freddie did while they got money from the two.  Obamagot the second highest amount of money from Fannie and Freddie.  Fannie and Freddie started this forest fire.  And he’s not doing to well with the focus group during that, although it came up toward the end.

Obama: Right now, the credit markets are frozen, so small businesses can’t get loans, and can’t make payroll, so they may have to lay people off.  “That’s why we had to take action.”  The biggest problem in this whole thing was the deregulation of the financial system.  I argued for more regulation, but nothing happened.  I never promotedFannie, but McCain’s somebody on his campaign–was something with Fannie Mae (I didn’t catch the whole statement).  The President has to make sure that the homeowners are protected.  He got pretty good ratings there.

Brokaw: Are you saying it’ll get worse before it gets better?

Obama: No, I am confident in the American economy.  Isn’t that what McCain said when he said the fundamentals are strong?  HYPOCRITE!  He got great ratings there.

McCain: It depends on what we do.  If we stabilize it and buy up bad loans, and get rid of special interests in Washington, we can fix our economy.  Our workers are the best in the world.  They’re the fundamental aspect of our economy.  “We gotta give them a chance to do their best. … They’re the innocent bystanders of” this crisis.

Teresa Finch: “How can we trust either of you with our money when both parties got us into this global economic crisis?”

Obama: I understand your crisis and cynicism.  “You’re right, there is a lot of blame to go around. … But remember, when George Bush came into office, we had a surplus … now we have a deficit.”  We’ve almost doubled our deficit.  Nobody is completely innocent.  I’m going to spend money on key issues that we have to work on, health care and energy.  Ratings are really high here.  Invest in college affordability.  “I’m cutting more than I’m spending.”  And men just plummeted in their ratings there.  And what exactly is he planning on cutting?

McCain: “The system in Washington is broken.”  I’ve been a reformer and crossed the aisle, working with Senator Feingold on campaign finance reform.  “The situation today cries out for bipartisanship. … Let’s look at our records as well as our rhetoric.”  Obama is proposing 860 billion dollars of new spending, and voted for every increase of spending that came across the floor.  He voted for nearly a billion dollars in pork barrel spending, including a projector for a planetarium in Illinois.  We need to get Americans working again, and get more jobs for Americans.  We need nuclear power.  We need to stop depending on foreign oil.  Ratings were pretty bad there, but came up at the end.  McCain was right – Obama’s earmarks are just atrocious.

Brokaw: Health care, energy, and entitlement reform – order of priorities?

McCain: Do all 3 at once.  We won’t be able to provide same benefits for future retirees as we are able to today.  I’ve worked across the aisle.  We can work on nuclear power plants, create new jobs.  We need alternative fuels, wind, tide, solar, natural gas, clean coal.  Health care – everyone is struggling to make sure they can afford their premiums.  We can do these all at once, and we have to do them all at once.

Obama: Your list of priorities.  Energy, we have to deal with today.  Gas is expensive, and it may go up.  Some countries like Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are gaining from high oil prices.  In 10 years, we need to be free of foreign oil.  Just like Kennedy said we can go to the moon in 10 years, this can be done.  That was a great analogy!  I missed what he just said.  I want to go line-by-line and eliminate programs in the federal government, and eliminate programs that don’t work, and make others cheaper.  Women are rating him really high now.  Money given to big oil companies, which McCain wants, takes money out of the system.  Don’t mislead, Obama, he wants to give tax cuts to ALL companies, but that doesn’t exclude oil companies.

Brokaw: What are you gonna ask Americans to sacrifice to get out of the depression?

McCain: Talking about defense contracts that were done corruptly.  Get rid of earmarks, and some of those are “good” projects, but they have to be eliminated still.  Except for Defense, Veterans Affairs, and other crucial programs, we will have to have a spending freeze.  Keep everything transparent.  Don’t allow for the government to hide earmarks.

Obama: After September 11, everybody came together, and President Bush did some smart things at the outset.  We need leadership to focus on problems inside and outside of government.  We need to think about how we use energy – we need to tell oil companies to start drilling and invest in clean coal technology.  We need to think of ways that we can conserve energy, and provide incentives to buy American cars that are fuel efficient.  The young people of America want to serve, and we need to increase the Peace Corps.  Ratings were really high there, especially among women.

Brokaw: President Bush last summer said Wall Street got drunk.  Now many think that both Washington and consumers also got drunk.  How do you get people to reduce easy credit and overspending?

Obama: We have to cut spending and increase revenue.  There are $18 billion in earmarks, but McCain wants to give tax cuts to CEOs, and that’s not sharing the burden.  Actually, it IS sharing the burden – it’s sharing it equally.  All of us need to contribute and make sacrifices.  We don’t need an across-the-board freeze.  That way, we only help those who need it.

McCain: Obama wants to raise taxes.  The last President who raised taxes during hard times was Herbert Hoover.  We’ve lost 700,000 jobs in America, but300,000 jobs have been created by small businesses.  Obama’s tax increases will increase taxes on over 50% of small businesses, meaning that jobs will have to be cut.  Obama said he’d fore go his tax increases if the economy was bad.  The economy is bad.  I don’t want to increase tax cuts.  I want to leave tax cuts alone, but give tax credits to people, and give credits for health care.  Let’s get our economy going again.

Obama just tried to keep going and Brokaw shut him up!  YEAH!

Brokaw: Would you tell Congress to do something about Social Security and Medicare within 2 years?

Obama: We won’t solve Social Security and Medicare without solving tax problems.  I want to provide a tax cut for 95% of Americans.  THAT’S A LIE!  ONLY 90% of Americans even make enough money to PAY taxes!  We provide a 50% tax credit to small businesses to buy healthcare.  And the ratings are really high here, again, especially with women.  McCain wants to give tax cuts to large corporations and the rest going to CEOs.  “That is not fair, and it doesn’t work.”  If we reverse the policies of the last 8 years, then we can deal with Social Security and Medicare, because we’ll have a health care plan that works for you.

McCain: “Hey, I’ll answer the question.”  It’s not that tough to fix social security – we have to sit down and fix this together.  Reagan and Tip O’Neill sat down and worked together.  Have a commission come together withrecommendations.  Then have Congress vote up or down, and not fool with it.  Obama has voted to increase taxes and voted against tax cuts.  I have fought to reform government.  “We’ll get our economy going again, and our best days are ahead of us.”

Ingrid Jackson: Congress moved pretty fast with the economic crisis.  How would you make sure they move fast with environmental issues?

McCain: “When we have an issue that we may hand our children a damaged planet–I have disagreed strongly with the Bush Administration.”  We brought this issue to the Senate.  We need nuclear power.  Nuclear power is safe and clean, and creates hundreds of thousands of jobs.  My liberal roommate’s getting mad that the focus group doesn’t like this: “These voters suck.”  And the ratings went up a bit at the end there.

Obama: “It is absolutely critical.”  We need to create a new energy economy.  We need to understand that this is a national security issue.  I favor nuclear power as one component.  OK, the focus group does suck.  They’re now rating him high, and he’s saying basically what McCain said.  The focus group seems kinda biased.  McCain’s problem withenergy is that he hasn’t done anything with alternative fuels.  It’s easy to talk about this stuff, but McCain hasn’t done anything.  McCain talks about drilling, and that’s important, but there’s not enough here at home to “drill our way out of the problem.”

Brokaw: Do we need a Manhattan-like project to deal with the energy crisis?

McCain: We need government involvement initially, and then once it’s started, release it to the private sector.  Obama (this is where he said “that one”) voted for a bill that Bush/Cheney backed with lots of money for oil companies, and I voted against it.

Lindsey Trella: Health care has become a profitable industry.  Should health care be treated as a commodity?

Obama: Health care is a very important issue.  Premiums have doubled over the last 8 years, and co-pays have increased as well.  We have a moral and economic imperative to do something about this.  Here’s what I would do: you can keep your plan if you like it, and we’ll work with your employer to lower your premiums.  We’ll work on making forms electronic, instead of on paper.  You’ll be able to have the same health care plan that Congress gets.  McCain has a different approach.  He’ll give you a $5,000 tax credit, but then tax your employer health care benefits.  He’ll then take out regulations that states have that make sure that you get certain things covered under your insurance.

McCain: You’ve identified one of the major challenges that America faces (directed to the audience member).  We need to impose efficiencies.  There’s a fundamental difference between me and Obama.  Obama will pose mandates.  If you’re a small business owner or parent, and you can’t afford health care for your employees or children, Obama will fine you.  How does that help the situation?  He’s ABSOLUTELY RIGHT!  How will that help you if you can’t afford health care already?  95% of Americans will have increased funds to get health care under my plan, except the really rich people.

Brokaw: Is health care a privilege, right, or responsibility?

McCain: Responsibility.  The government shouldn’t mandate that health care must be provided to all.  There shouldn’t be fines for these companies or parents, and Obama hasn’t said how much the fine is yet.

Obama: Right, for every American.  Talking about his mother dying at 53, and arguing with insurance companies.  He’s really rating high right now.  If you have a plan that you like, you can keep it, I’ll just help lower the premium.  Small businesses won’t have a mandate, they’ll get a 50% tax credit.  We don’t want kids going to ERs for treatable illnesses like asthma.  McCain voted against (something dealing with children and health care).  Crack down on insurance companies cheating their companies.  The problem with going across state lines is that companies will go to states that have laxed laws and cheat their customers, like banks do in Delaware.  DID HE JUST USE HIS RUNNING MATE’S STATE AS A BAD EXAMPLE!!!

Phil Elliot: How will our economic distress affect our position in the standing of the world militarily?

McCain: Much of the criticism of our foreign policy is justified.  We are peace makers and keepers.  We need to know when to go in and when not.  That question can only be answered by someone who understands these things.  We need to prevent the spread of genocide.  He’s rating really high here.  My opposition to sending Marines to Lebanon, and my stance on Bosnia, Russia, and others show that I understand these things.  Obama has been on the wrong side of some of these issues.

Obama: I don’t understand how we invaded Iraq when bin Laden is still free.  McCain said that Iraq would be quick and easy.  We’re spending money in Iraq when Iraq has a surplus.  We need that money more than them, and they have a surplus.  We are the greatest nation in the world, but we can’t maintain our military superiority if our economy continues to decline.  He is right about that.  We need to fundamentally change our foreign policy.

Brokaw: Let’s establish doctrines for using force when national security isn’t at stake, but in humanitarian issues?

Obama: Would’ve stopped Rwanda and the Holocaust.  When we stand idly by as genocide occurs, that diminishes us.  We should intervene when possible, but we can’t be everywhere all the time.  We need to work in concert with our allies, such as in Darfur.  We need to lead the international community.

McCain: If we had withdrawn from Iraq when Obama wanted to, it would have been a travesty.  Genocide is terrible, and we never want it to happen again.  We need a person who understands the limits of our capabilities.  We went into Somalia being peace makers, but had to withdraw in humiliation.  I stood up against Reagan with Lebanon.  We have to be able to beneficially affect the situation, realizing that we’re sending Americans into harm’s way.  I won’t make these decisions lightly.  We can’t have another Holocaust or Rwanda, but we can’t make the situation worse.

Katie Hamm: Should we respect Pakistani sovereignty and allow terrorists to stay there or invade like we did with Cambodia during Vietnam?

Obama: We got distracted from Afghanistan and Al Qaeda, and went to Iraq.  They’re now stronger now than any time since 2001.  They’re plotting to kill Americans right now.  We need to end the war in Iraq, put troops into Afghanistan, eliminate drug trafficking, and change policies with Pakistan.  We need to encourage democracy, and if we have bin Laden in our sights, and Pakistan won’t or can’t take him out, we will take him out.  That’s our number 1 national security priority.

McCain: Obamawants to announce when we’re going to attack Pakistan.  It’ll turn public opinion against us.  We drove Russians out of Afghanistan with Afghani freedom fighters, and that led to bin Laden coming to power.  General Petraeushad a strategy of getting the support of the Pakistani people, and working with them to get Al Qaeda.  Don’t threaten to attack them, but talk with them.

Obama: Nobody called for the invasion of Pakistan, but to strike inside of Pakistan if bin Laden is available to be taken out.  And I agree with Obama here on this one.  McCain IS twisting his words, and not taking bin Laden out when Clinton happened is one of the things that led to September 11th.  Pakistan was not promoting democracy, and it undermined our fight on the war on terrorism.

McCain: I have supported efforts that the U.S. had to go in militarily, but opposed it when it wasn’t necessary.  I was joking with a veteran about Iran (Obama used McCains “Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran” quote).  I will act responsibly as I have through my military career.

Brokaw: In Afghanistan, the senior British Commander has said that we’re failing in Afghanistan.  The Afghans need to take over.  We need an acceptable dictator.  What’s your opinion?

Obama: We need to withdraw from Iraq responsibly, and make the Iraqis take control so that we can put more troops into Afghanistan.

McCain: The same overall strategies between Afghansitan and Iraq are the same.  We need more troops, like Obama is saying.  Obama still won’t admit that the surge worked, and that’s the same strategy that we will need in Afghanistan.  Once they feel secure, they can lead normal lives, the same thing that’s happening in Iraq today.  And he’s absolutely right here.

Brokaw: How can we get Russia to behave better without starting another Cold War?

McCain: We won’t have another Cold War.  I warned about Vladimir Putin a long time ago – I saw a “K,” a “G,” and a “B.”  He was wrong with Georgia.  Ukraine is in Russia’s sights now (it’s in the sights of the Somalians too – that whole pirate thing is just weird).  We need to talk, such as in the G8 summits.  Russia must realize that this is not acceptable, and we need economic and diplomatic means to show that that this is not acceptable.  Really high ratings there, and he’s absolutely right.

Obama: Russia will be an issue that we’ll have to deal within the next 4 years.  I agree with Senator McCain on most of that.  We can’t just have diplomacy.  We need to support, financially, former U.S.S.R. countries, such as Georgia, Estonia, Latvia, etc.  Georgia is suffering, and that’s probably what Putin wanted to happen.  Russia was trying to obtain territories, and this is unacceptable.  We need to be proactive, not reactive.  He is right here - we have to be a step or 2 ahead of Russia.  Energy will be key in dealing with Russia, that’s one of the things that happened in Georgia’s situation.

Brokaw: Is Russia under Putin an evil empire?

Obama: No, but their actions are sometimes.

McCain: If I say yes, it reignites the Cold War.  If I say no, it seems like I’m ignoring it.  Energy is a key issue.  My liberal roommate just said that both want to say yes, but it’d be political suicide to do so.

Terry Shirey: If McCain attacks Israel, would you send troops or wait for UN Security Council approval?

McCain: We wouldn’t wait, because Russia and China would pose obstacles to sending troops.  Iran with nukes is a threat to the stability of the Middle East – other countries would acquire nukes.  Obama would meet with them without preconditions.  I would impose tough sanctions, and we can abridge their behavior, and hopefully they’ll abandon this quest for nukes.  We can never allow a second Holocaust to take place.

Obama: We cannot a nuclear Iran.  “It would be a game changer in the region.”  It would threaten Israel – one of our strongest allies.  As well, it would lead to nukes in the hands of terrorists.  I will never take military action off the table.  If we can work more effectively with more other countries to tighten sanctions, we should.  He’s getting rated higher, but said the same things as McCain – the focus group is biased folks.  Neither of them answered the question about if Iran ATTACKED Israel.  When we stopped talkingwith Iran, their nuclear pursuance increased, as did North Korea’s when we stopped talking.

Brokaw: What don’t you know, and how will you learn it?

Obama: It’s the challenges that we don’t expect that consume most of our time.  I wouldn’t be standing here if my country hadn’t given me great opportunity.  The question in this election is will we pass on this same American dream?  That dream has diminished – people are losing health care and going bankrupt.  Kids can’t afford college.  We can’t keep doing the same for the next 8 years.  We need fundamental change.  Really good ratings there!

McCain: I think what I don’t know is what’s gonna happen both here at home and overseas.  What I don’t know is what the expected will be.  I know what it’s like in dark times.  I know what it’s like to fight and hope through dark times.  “I know what it’s like to have your comrades and neighbors reach out to you and put you back in the fight.  That’s what America’s all about.”  It’s been my privilege to serve this country, and I’m asking for an opportunity to serve you more.  I’ve always put my country first.  Good ratings at the end, but not as good as Obama’s.

Brokaw, thank you… “You’re in the way of my script.”  Thank you, and goodnight from Nashville.

Alright, overall, I thnk that both candidates performed pretty poorly.  Overall, I can’t really pick a winner.  I hate doing this again, like I did after the last debate, but I’m going to have to call this one a tie.  McCain wasn’t as strong on foreign policy as he could’ve been (and that’s his strong point).  On economic issues, he had some good plans but he didn’t seem to appeal to the average Joe citizens.  The media has been commenting on McCain calling Obama “That one” when he was talking about Obama voting for money given to oil companies (and I’ve put it in italics in the text above).  Apparently it caught some people as awkward.  The consensus on CNN was that it was intended as “that one” versus “this one” (meaning “me” from McCain’s stand point).  Sure it was maybe bad wording, but I don’t think it was anything to get worked up about (and again, my liberal roommate agrees here).  Look, politicians use poor choices of words all the time.  I’m not saying McCain should’ve said it, but it’s nothing that people need to complain about.

Also, Obama seemed to get a little overconfident at the end, and he was stuttery at times.

Both candidates wanted to violate the rules of the debate, and just keep talking.  I think Brokaw needed to do a better job of moderating.  Instead of just saying, “You didn’t stop when the red light turned on,” he should’ve said, “Your time is up.”

At some points, some of McCain’s humor was just sucky (kinda like my fathers at times – he’ll tell these lame jokes when he’s doing announcements at church that he’s got this reputation, and people just kinda laugh to humor him, and the fact that he’s tried to tell a joke becomes the joke – it’s not always a bad thing, but it was with McCain).

Again, I do think that this was a tie, and this was one that McCain could not afford to lose.  McCain is going to need a couple small miracles to actually come back from where he’s at now.  I’m not giving up hope, but it’s definitely Obama’s race to lose at this point.

CNN just released a poll – Obama gained favoribility and lost unfavorability, but McCain stayed the same on both.  Overall, those polled thought Obama won (56%-30%).

Done Analyzing,

Ranting Republican
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Live Analysis of the Vice Presidential Debate

October 2, 2008

We are waiting for the debate to start.  Tonight’s debate will be between the VP candidates, Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) and Senator Joe Biden (D-DE), and will be starting in about 1 minute.  It’ll be moderated by Gwen Ifill, from PBS.

OK – now we’re about to start.

Ifill: Talking about the Senate bill.  “Was this the worst of Washington, or the best of Washington?”

Biden: Neither.  The economic policies of the last 8 years were the worst part.  Obama laid out rescue plan: Oversight, “focus on homeowners and folks on mainstreet, treat taxpayers like investors, and lastly, make sure CEOs don’t benefit.”  “We will fundamentally change the … economic policy.”

Palin: “Our economy is hurting, and the government has not provided the sound oversight that we need and deserve.”  Women undecided voters in Ohio (the group they’re surveyin is Undecideds in Ohio) arereally liking her, now she’s mentioning McCain, and she’s dropped a bit – talking about his  policy will accomplish what we need.

Biden: Talking about McCain saying “the fundamentals of the economy are strong” – well he was talking about the PRINCIPLES of CAPITALISM and the American workers, not the details of our current economy!  Women, liking Biden more than men, a trend that seems to carry no matter who’s talking.

Palin: Basically correcting Biden’s statement about McCain, saying what I said.  Americans are craving reform.  Men had liked her more, then women climbed back on top.

Ifill: Subprime lending meltdown.  Who was at fault?  Lenders or buyers?

Palin: “Darn right it was the … lenders.”  And the women are as HIGH as they can go on  the chart – wow.  Talking about not living outside of our means, that we do need to take responsibility – and both categories are as high as they can go.  Basically saying that this isn’t the people’s fault, but that we can learn a lesson from it, and take steps to insure that we don’t live above our means.

Biden: Saying McCain let Wall Street run wild.  That his stances for deregulation were bad, and Wall Street can’t regulate itself.  Well, it can and should, Mr. Biden.  Saying that McCain wants to deregulate the health care industry.  I got interrupted there – lost what Biden said.  I did notice the chart, women liking him more than men, but not as high as Palin.

Palin: OK, I’m back – something about tax reduction and letting private sector keep more of what we produce.  We need tax relief.  Undecided Ohio voters are loving her.

Biden: Palin lied: Obama didn’t raise taxes.  Saying that Palin didn’t answer the question about deregulation.  Saying that McCain DID pursue deregulation.

Palin: Wants to correct Biden’s misstatements on taxes first.  Now talking about what she did in Alaska for taxes.  Now on to talking about McCain pushing for more regulations: citing tobacco and campaign finances.

Ifill: Time is up.  Next question: Tax benefits on health care.

Biden: “The middle class is struggling.”  He’s right – middle class families are struggling, and the voters understand this and are agreeing with him.  He’s hitting it home here, and the focus group is liking it, women more than men.  Saying that Obama will cut taxes for people under $200,000.  Talking about McCain wanting to raise taxes, but as soon as he went negative, his ratings went down, now back up.  But Biden did hit it home to the average Joe voters – it was good for Obama.

Palin: Talking about Biden saying that paying higher taxes is patriotic, and that she disagrees, coming from the middle class.  Saying that private sector and  families should grow, thrive, and prosper.  Talking about Obama’s spending being “the backwards way in growing the economy.”  Talking about McCain’s health care plan: $5,000 tax credit – “that’s budget neutral,” unlike Obama’s plan which will cost the government money.  Her ratings aren’t doing too well right now.  Saying that McCain will promote crossing state lines to purchase plans – and that’ll increase competition.

Biden: Talking about not redistributing money to big businesses.  Talking about health care – he’s kinda stuttering and bumbling around during this part.  He’s talking about health care, specifically McCain taxing health care benefits, which will have money going to insurance companies.  Having to replace a $12,000 plan with $5,000 because 20 million people will be dropped.  “The ultimate bridge to nowhere.”  Good quote – the focus group didn’t like it, but I thought it was clever.

Biden: talking about tax cuts, and not going through with the Bush tax cuts.  Not gonna support tax cuts for corporate wealthy.  Not gonna support tax cuts for Exxon/Mobil.  Saying we can’t slow up on education.  And  the women are  rating him as high as they can right now, but men putting him at neutral now.  Saying he and Obama will eliminate wasteful spending, one which is a tax dodge by putting their post office box off shore.

Palin: “McCain doesn’t tell 1 thing to 1 group” and something else to another group.  Talking about the energy plan: Obama voted for a plan that gave oil companies big tax breaks.  Saying that she took on those oil companies.  They were doing what they need to do, but they’re not her biggest fans, because she broke up monopolies, and she was at a neutral rating all through that, but is now a little bit positive.  Reemphasizing that Obama voted FOR that energy plan.  Saying that her area of expertise is energy.  Saying that she’ll do what is right for the American people, and stop greed on Wall Street, and that the rescue plan needs oversight.  She dipped pretty negative there, but balanced it out at the end.

Biden: Talking about Obama voting for the bill.  Saying it was the first bill that really allowed for alternate energy.  Why is McCain adding tax cuts for oil companies? (he asked).  Saying that we should be able to give back money to everybody just like Palin did in Alaska, but under McCain’s plan, it’ll all go to companies.  Saying he hopes Palin will convince McCain to support windfall tax, like Palin supported in the past.

Ifill: Something about economy and something about debt – I didn’t hear exactly what it was.

Palin: We need to be appreciative of McCain’s call for reform.  And emphasizing reform is a very good strategy for her (and Biden) in this debate.  Put politics and campaign aside and fix this “toxic mess on Main Street that’s affecting Wall Street” (I think she switched the 2 of those up).

Biden: Saying that McCain and Palin don’t support certain ways to help the people through one of the bailout bills, I missed the specifics – women liked him, men didn’t.

Palin: Talking about doing all we can do to become energy independent.  She dropped really low, and is coming back now, talking about having to rely on foreign countries, instead of “dollars circulating here creating 10s of 1,000s of jobs. … Energy independence is the key to this nation’s future.”  Talking about not giving oil company tax breaks.  She rose pretty high there, but dropped down at the end.

Ifill: What’s true and false about climate change.

Palin: Talking about Alaska often changed by climate, since it’s an arctic state.  Some of it’s human-caused, others of it is cyclical.  Doesn’t want to argue about causes, but wants to discuss how we’ll clean up the planet.  That’s a great answer – and she’s right.  Who cares HOW we got here, as long as we know HOW to fix it!  We need an all of the above approach to tap into energy as well as conserving fuel – and she got pretty high ratings there.

Biden: “I think it’s clearly man-made.”  And he dropped down a bit there.  Saying that we can’t get a solution unless we know the cause.  Well, Mr. Biden, even the National Climatic Data Center doesn’t know the cause, and it’s their job to figure these things out.  Talking about ways to stop greenhouse gases from being emitted.  Saying that China is building new dirty coal plants weekly – we need to export technology to help them and their environment.  Saying McCain voted against alternative energy 20 times.  Biden got some pretty good ratings there.

Palin: McCain supports caps on drilling.  Saying that we need to tap into oil, and that’s what the people want.  She gave the “Drill baby, drill!” quote and that dropped her pretty bad.  Saying that Biden called drilling “raping” the continental shelf.  Saying that we need an all of the above approach.  Saying that Biden didn’t support clean coal, saying that he said there’s no such thing as clean coal.

Biden: Saying that the comment was taken out of context, and that he’s supported clean coal for 25 years.  If the only answer you have is oil, and not everything, how will that help?

Ifill: Do you support, as they do in Alaska, benefits to gay couples?

Biden: Absolutely.  In our administration, there will be no difference between gay and straight couples.  And  here’s where I disagree – it’s a states’ rights issue.  He brought up visitation in hospitals, and I do agree there.  Although he’s remaining barely above neutral ratings.

Palin: I wouldn’t do it if it redefined marriage, but I will be tolerant.  Saying that she has a diverse group of family and friends - I can’t tell if she’s implying gay friends?  Saying that McCain wouldn’t ban visitation rights, but supports defining marriage between 1 man and 1 woman.  She did pretty good in ratings.

Biden: Neithe me nor Obama want to redefine marriage.  That’s a decision to be left by the faith institutes.  Saying that Palin doesn’t want differences in rights, so they’re on the same page.

Palin: Says that she doesn’t want to redefine marriage, so they agree.

Ifill: On Iraq – exit strategy.

Palin: Saying that we have a good plan, and that the surge worked, is working, and  Obama shouldn’t have voted against troop funding, and she’s glad that Biden stood up to him on that.  Saying that we can start putting more troops in Afghanistan.  She’s rating right around neutral right now.  Saying that we’re getting closer and closer to victory, and it’d be a travesty if we quit in Iraq.

Biden: I didn’t hear a plan.  Outlining Obama’s plan: Train the Iraqis.  McCain voted the same way in no funding for troops.  Said he won’t fund them with a timeline.  He’s rating pretty decent now.  Although he dropped a bit with women when he attacked McCain.  Saying it’s time Iraqis spend their own money, and he’s now maxed out at the women’s rating and is almost there with men.  “For John McCain, there’s no end in sight to end this war.”

Palin: “Your plan is a white flag of surrender in Iraq” and thats’ not what our troops needed.  The surge worked, and Obama can’t admit that.  Saying that Biden would’ve been on McCain’s ticket because he supported McCain’s stance on Iraq, and that he flip flopped when Obama picked him.  Saying Obama voted against troop funding.

Biden: Saying McCain voted against funding for troops.  Voted against it because it had a timeline in it to end the war.  Saying McCain has been dead wrong on fundamental issues on the Iraq War.  “There are the facts.”  He got pretty good ratings back there.

Ifill: Which is more dangerous: nuclear Iran or unstable Pakistan?

Biden: Pakistan already has nukes.  Could hit Israel.  Iran is not close to getting nukes, so both are very dangerous.  Saying that John still thinks that the battlefront on terrorism is in Iraq.  Ratings are really high, especially among women – he’s doing pretty good here.  Saying that we need to help them build schools (in Pakistan) and that’s where bin Laden lives.  We need to go after him.

Palin: Saying that both Petraeus and Al Qaeda said that the central battlefront was Iraq.  The only thing they agreed on.  Saying that Ahmadinejad is unstable (quoted him on Israel).  Talking about Obama meeting with nations without preconditions, showing naivety on Obama’s part.  And her ratings went from pretty good to neutral.

Ifill: Secretaries of State have advocated talking.  Are they wrong?

Palin: No.  We need diplomacy, but with dictators who hurt America cannot be met with just sitting down on a Presidential level like Obama said he’d do.  “Diplomacy is hard work by many people.”

Biden: That’s not true.  He didn’t say sit down with Ahmadinejad.  It surprises me that McCain doesn’t know that he doesn’t control the security apparatus of Iran.  Saying that McCain and Palin said they have passion for diplomacy, and we need talks with our friends and allies, yet our allies said, “Sit down and talk,” but we didn’t.  Rating pretty good there.  McCain said he wouldn’t sit down with Spain, a NATO ally who has troops in Afghanistan.  “I find that incredible.”  Rating great there – and yeah, that was a really dumb moment by McCain.

Palin: Forging peace will be top of McCain/Palin agenda.  We will never allow a second Holocaust, even if that’s what Iran warns of.  Saying we need more peace, but we need commitment, and we’ll give that commitment.  Great ratings there.

Biden: “Nobody has been a friend to Israel in the Senate as much as Joe Biden.”  What about Bernie Sanders?  I’m just assuming that since he’s Jewish he supports Israel, but I could be wrong.  Talking about Hezbollah and that they’re a legitimate part of the government of Lebanon.  We will change this policy, and stand with Israel, not insist that policies are past.  Rating great there.

Palin: Saying that she’s glad Biden cares so much about Israel.  Saying that we can’t keep finger pointing at Bush (like Biden just did – I left that out when I typed above).  Put partisanships aside – he’s known as the Maverick.  It’s good that she’s bringing that up.

Biden: How different will McCain’s policy be different than Bush’s?  He hasn’t heard how it’s different.  On Israel, Iran, Pakistan.

Ifill: What should be the trigger when nuclear weapons use is put into play?

Palin: Dangerous regimes cannot be allowed to get nukes.  “Period.”  Saying we need sanctions on nations like North Korea.  On Afghanistan, McCain’s stance is different than Bush’s – McCain will use surge principles, just like we did in Iraq, and it worked.  Saying we’re fighting terrorists and securing democracy and building schools.

Biden: On Afghanistan–commanding general said that the surge principle will not work in Afghanistan.  And Biden’s ratings are pretty good now.  Spent more in 3 week on Iraq than 6 1/2 years in Afghanistan.  Ratings are pretty good there.  Saying that McCain hasn’t supported nuclear test ban treaties.

Palin: Saying that the general didn’t say that the surge principles wouldn’t work.

Biden: Saying that the general DID say that.  Obama, Hagel, Biden, and Lugar have called for more money in Afghanistan.  McCain said we had already succeeded in Afghanistan.  We need to spend more in Afghanistan than on Iraq.

Ifill: Biden, you’ve had an interventionist stance.  Should America continue this?

Biden: It worked in Bosnia (this is something Ifill brought up), and he supported it and was the first for it.  On Iraq, he voted to let us go to war, but opposes it.  We needed to have our allies with us.  In Darfur, we cannot allow for the genocide – we need to provide helicopters.  And the ratings skyrocketed.

Palin: Saying that she must be a Washington outsider, since she doesn’t get why he switched his views, and compared him to Kerry.  Saying that he opposed Obama’s strategy and now is for it.  We can agree on Darfur, specifically the no-fly zone.  And her ratings are going up decently.  Talking about not using money that would look like we will allow travesties in Darfur.

Ifill: When is the line to be drawn to go to War?

Biden: Can we afford it?  When a country engages in genocide / terrorism, that country forfeits their right to say that we can’t intervene.  Saying that he predicted Sunni/Shia conflicts.

Palin: I disagree with you on whose strategy you supported.  John Mccain has faced challenges and knows what evil is, and will know how to implement commanders, and will know how to win a war.

Ifill: If the worst were to happen, how would a Biden administration differ from an Obama administration?

Biden: I’d carry out policies – accurate health care, an energy policy that creates new jobs.  A foreign policy that gives power to Iraq.  Reject the Bush doctrine.  He’s rating as high as he can among womenn, and VERY good among men.  It’s the most important election you’ll have voted in since 1932.  I agree with Obama on every major suggestion.

Palin: Talking about disagreeing on drilling in ANWR, continue good work he started – getting rid of greed in Washington and Wall Street.  The money needs to be put to the average family.  And her ratings are skyrocketing – maxed out for women, very high for men.  Talking about Obama’s plan being bad for our economy.

Biden: Saying that it’s been Bush’s economic policy that hurt us.  Saying that McCain says he’s different, but he really isn’t.  “The middle class has gotten the short end.”  Very good ratings.

Palin: Saying that teachers need more pay.  We need better education.  Her ratings are doing pretty good.  Education in America is just accepted to be a little bit laxed, and that’s unacceptable.  We need to reform No Child Left Behind.  Very high  ratings among women and pretty good for men.

Ifill: What does the Vice Presidency do?

Palin: Talked about her saying a lame joke, “and yours must’ve been a lame joke too because nobody got it.”  Pretty funny.  Talking about presiding over the Senate.  Saying “McCain has tapped me and that’s where he wants me” – dealing with special needs children – might’ve been education, I missed part of it.

Biden: “I would be the point person for legislative initiatives.”  Saying that he’ll give Obama his best advice.  Sahying that he won’t be afraid to tell Obama if he disagrees.  Pretty good ratings.  And he’s showing himself being somewhat of a Maverick or independent, and willing to disagree with HIS president.

Ifill: Opinion of Cheney’s Vice Presidency.

Palin: Talking about doing best for the American people in cooperating with the President’s agenda, and that there’s a lot of flexibility.  Talking about her executive experience, and those years will be put to good use.

Biden: It’s been the most dangerous we’ve had.  Only preside over Senate when there’s a tie vote.  Give President advice.  His ratings are VERY high right now.  Criticizing Cheney’s defining the VP as a legislative job.

Ifill: What are your Achilles heels?

Palin: Responding to Ifill (who asked if it was her experience).  I was experienced in being a governor and mayor, and I’m tapped into average families.  Talking about standing for tolerance, freedom, and equal rights.  Combine that with being a team of reform and it’s a good ticket.  Pretty good ratings.

Biden: Responding to it being his lack of discipline.  I’ll place my record against McCain’s.  Talking about crime bills.  Talking about it knowing what it’s like to be a single parent.  Saying that he’s much better off than many Americans now, but the notion that because he’s a man, he doesn’t know how to raise to kids alone.  And he’s getting emotional here – and it is really appealing to the focus group – that was Biden’s best moment right there – and it was a GENUINE moment.  It’s going to be hard for Palin to make any comeback from that without looking bad.

Palin: Americans aren’t looking for more of the same.  Talking about John McCain’s Maverick position.  And she’s not doing well with the focus group, just as I predicted.  Talking about not allowing Wall Street greed, and now she’s picking up ratings.  “Change is coming and John McCain” will bring reform.

Biden: McCain is not a Maverick – he voted for Bush’s budget.  He voted against putting children into health care coverage.  Not a Maverick on education, on the war, on virtually anything that affects the average people.  He’s rating pretty high.  “Maverick he is not on the important issues that affect people at the kitchen table.”

Ifill: Single issue where you had to change a long-held view to accommodate circumstances.

Biden: Yes, the only thing that mattered for a judicial nominee was a moral person who hadn’t committed crime.  Now I realized that ideology matters, and he gave an example of somebody he opposed.  Women liked his response, but Men are rating him neutral.  “I’m glad I did [change on that].”

Palin: There’ve been times when I was governor and mayor that I didn’t like, but didn’t veto.  Times when I wanted to cut taxes, but didn’t have enough support.  Never a time when I had to change my views because up in Alaska, we’ve been able to compromise and work things out.  That’s what I’ll do in Washington, and that’s what McCain has done.

Ifill: How do you change the tone and promote bipartisanship, after looking at the bailout vote?

Biden: I’ve worked across the aisle and changed opinions of my party and the Republicans.  Saying that people shouldn’t question motives of members of the Senate.  Question their judgment, not motives.  And he got pretty good ratings there – that was a pretty good statement.

Palin: Do what I did as Governor – walk the walk and appoint people from both parties.  Work together.  Let policies and proposals speak for themselves.  Lower taxes on workers and businesses.  Rein in spending.  Don’t support a ticket that will increase spending.  And her ratings were doing really good, but she’s dropped a bit.

Ifill: Closing statements.

Palin: Glad to be here and glad to meet Biden and debate him.  Wants to speak to people without filters – just speak to them.  We’ll fight for the average American people.  Always been proud to be an American, and so has McCain.  We need to fight for freedoms.  “Freedom is always a generation away from extinction.”  We will fight for freedom, and only McCain has fought for you.

Biden: Thank you, and it was a pleasure to meet you Governor.  This is the most important election you’ve ever voted in.  There’s a need for fundamental economic and foreign policy change.  Obama and I don’t look at that based on CEOs and tax credits to Exxon/Mobil, but when sending a kid off to fight in a war.  They should be guaranteed best health care and education.  Really good ratings right now.  Talking about believing in selves and accomplishing things, and that’s why him and Obama are running – to reestablish that mood.  It’s time for America to get back up together.  May God bless you, and may God protect our troops.

Ifill: Thank you to the Commission, the University, Governor Palin and Senator Biden.  “Good night everybody.”

Palin: “Thank you so much!  Thank you Gwen.”

Why is her mic still on?  that’s weird.

So, my analysis overall:

  • I didn’t like the fact that Palin avoided some of the questions at the beginning.  She lost some points with me here.
  • Biden got a little wordy and confusing toward the end at some points, but it wasn’t a huge issue.
  • I give a lot of credit to Biden for being a single dad.  When he started getting emotional, that was a powerful moment, and I felt for him – I could feel the emotion just watching him.  It didn’t affect the outcome of the debate (at least not in my mind), but I think credit needs to be given to him for that.

Overall, I call it a Biden victory.  Perhaps it’s just because I was going into this thinking that Palin wouldn’t perform well, but I didn’t think she did too bad, but I would definitely say that I am confident that Biden won.  I really don’t think that either campaign will get a bump from this, but if anybody will, I think it’ll be McCain.  Like I said earlier today, it was Biden’s debate to lose.  He performed very well, but Palin did as well, and for Biden to help the Obama ticket much more, he would’ve needed to blow her out of the water, and that just didn’t happen.

Done Analyzing,

Ranting Republican
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Rasmussen Poll: Like Joe Biden, Sarah Palin Hurts Her Ticket as Much as She Helps

September 2, 2008

This is kinda like a follow-up of my first post, regarding Rasmussen’s poll about Joe Biden (D-DE).

1* John McCain named Sarah Palin to be his Vice Presidential running mate. Was this the right choice for McCain to make?

 

39% Yes

39% No

22% Not sure

Well, that’s not too good for Palin or McCain.  They’d better hope that those 22% start swinging toward Yes, otherwise McCain could be in trouble.

2* With Sarah Palin as his running mate, are you more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain?

 

37% More likely

38% Less likely

23% No impact

2% Not sure

That’s essentially the same thing as Joe Biden, except that Biden was at 32% for each (so more people saying no impact/undecideds), and Palin had 1% more saying that they are less likely to vote for the ticket because of her.

3* If necessary, is Sarah Palin ready to be President?

 

29% Yes

48% No

23% Not sure

And this is the question that’s REALLY going to hurt Palin. Nearly half of the people surveyed say she’s not ready. Personally, I disagree. I think, due to her experience as an executive, she has more experience than Obama, who spent a large chunk of his time in the Illinois Senate voting “Present” and has spent nearly half of his time as a U.S. Senator campaigning for President, but still, this is going to hurt McCain/Palin.

4* Inpolitical terms, is Sarah Palin very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal, or very liberal?

 

45% Very conservative

30% Somewhat conservative

11% Moderate

2% Somewhat liberal

0% Very liberal

11% Not sure

Wow – most people saying that she’s very conservative is going to hurt.  Like I saidwhen the poll came out for Michelle Obama, you really want Very Conservative and Somewhat Conservative to be switched.  You want something similar to a bell curve (although with politics, unless you’re actually a moderate, this won’t happen).  This isn’t going to win over many moderate voters, but it will energize the base.

5*Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of Sarah Palin?

 

31% Very favorable

21% Somewhat favorable

20% Somewhat unfavorable

16% Very unfavorable

10% Not familiar with Sarah Palin

2% Not sure

And this is where Palin does better than Biden.  She has a favorability rating of 52%, while Biden only had 48% (and that’s a difference larger than the margin of error).  She has an unfavorability rating of 36%, while Biden had one of 38%, so they were pretty close there.  Having 52% like you is a VERY good thing to have, so this is going to help Palin out quite a bit, now the McCain campaign just needs to show people that she’s ready to lead.

Here’s a few results broken up by party and gender (I don’t have a premium account, so what’s posted below is all I can get):

  • “69% of GOP voters believe the choice was a good one, while nearly as many Democrats (63%) disagree. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided as well.”
  • “The night after the announcement, slightly more women voters viewed Palin as the right choice for McCain’s running mate, but now 41% say she was not, versus 36% who still believe she was a good choice. Forty-one percent (41%) of women say they are less likely now to vote for McCain because of Palin, as opposed to 31% who say they are more likely to support him. Women voters were essentially even on this question in the earlier survey.”
  • “Men still back McCain’s decision. Forty-one percent (41%) say she was the right choice, while 37% disagree. Earlier, men favored the decision by a 43% to 31% margin. Forty-three percent (43%) of men voters say they are more likely to vote for McCain because of his choosing of Palin as a running mate, but 34% say they are less likely to do so. This is a jump in support from the earlier survey.”
  • “But even a plurality of men (47%) say Palin is not ready to be president in the event of the 72-year-old McCain being incapacitated while in the White House, although 32% believe she is ready. Women voters by a nearly two-to-one margin believe Palin is not ready.”

So, there you have it.  Palin is starting off I think worse than Biden did, but she has a lot more potential to improve than Biden does.  We’ll see what happens on Election Day!

Done Analyzing,

Ranting Republican
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Analysis of Senator Joe Biden’s Speech to the DNC

August 28, 2008

OK, again, like Bill Clinton’s I’m getting this up late due to some meetings I had, but here’s my analysis:

He’s starting out talking about being proud of his kids, and that the way they turned out made him a success.  Now he’s moved on to his wife.  Talking about how he wants to bring the country as far along as Bill Clinton did.

Talking about Hillary, who’s made history, and will continue to make history.

“I am truly honored to live in a country with the bravest warriors in the world.”  A good quote there, because it shows how supportive of the troops he is, whereas, up until now, McCain has been the one who appears as the ally to the troops.

“And I’m honored to represent … my state of Delaware.  Since I’ve never been called a man of few words, let me say this as simply as I can.  Yes, yes I accept your nomination to run and serve with Barack Obama, the next President of the United States of America.”

Started talking about his road to where he is now.  Talking about his dad and mom.  And the place just erupted in support of his mother.  He’s really a GREAT speaker.

His mom taught him, “You are defined by your sense of honor, and you’re redeemed by your loyalty. … Bravery lives in every heart, and it will be summoned.  Failure, failure at some point in your life is inevitable, but giving up is unforgivable.”  And now he’s talking about some funny stories from his childhood.  He’s such a down-to-earth speaker, but very inspirational.  He almost reminds me of Tony Snow a little bit, in terms of speech-making.

My mother’s creed is the American creed: “No one is better than you.  Everyone is your equal, and everyone is equal to you.”  Wow, that’s another great quote.

So far, the speech hasn’t had much issue substance, but it’s still been a good “American” speech.

“Today [the] American dream feels like it’s slipping away.”  Very good imagery.

Talking about bad economy, gas prices, and health care conversations he hears while taking the train from D.C. back to Delaware.

“That’s the America that George Bush has left us, and that’s the America we’ll continue if George, excuse me, John McCain is elected President of the United States of America.  Freudian slip.  Freudian slip.”  Well, you could tell that was scripted (he paused right before he said George), but it was still a good, funny, clever line.  And comparing McCain to Bush will be CRUCIAL to the Democrats in this election.

“Barack Obama … is the great American story.”

Talking about Obama going to South Chicago.

“Work is more than a paycheck.  It’s dignity.  It’s respect.  It’s about whether or not you can look your child in the eye and say, ‘We’re going to be alright.’”  Great quote.

Talking about Barack Obama helping people get health care in Illinois.  Talking about his accomplishments in Congress.

“You know, you can learn a lot about a man, campaigning with him, debating him, seeing how he reacts under pressure.  You learn about the strength of his mind, but even more importantly, you learn about the quality of his heart.  I watched how Barack touched people, how he inspired them, and I realized he had tapped into the oldest belief in America: we don’t have to accept the situation we cannot bear.  We have the power to change it.  And change it is exactly what Barack Obama will do.  That’s what he’ll do for this country.”

“You know, John McCain is my friend. … You hear that phrase used a lot in politics. … I mean it. … The personal courage and heroism demonstrated by John still amazes me, but I profoundly disagree with the direction John wants to take this country from Afghanistan to Iraq, from Amtrack to veterans.  John thinks that during the Bush years quote, ‘We’ve made great economic progress.’  I think it’s been abysmal.  And in the Senate, John has voted with President Bush 95%, and that is very hard to believe. … That’s not change, that’s more of the same.”  That’s good for the Democrats.  He showed that he’s friends with him personally, and that he respects him, but he’s comparing him with Bush, which is an image that will stick in the minds of voters.

Talking about oil, economy, and Iraq.

“The choice in this election is clear: these times require more than a good soldier, they require a wise leader.  A leader who can change.  The change everybody knows we need.  Barack Obama’s gonna deliver that change.”  Good quotes again – emphasizing change from Bush, but still showing respect for McCain.

Talking about Obama’s tax cut plans and alternative energy plans.

“Barack Obama knows that any country who out-teaches us today, will out-compete us tomorrow.”  Talking about better teachers and more affordable college.  A good issue to get young votes.

Talking about “affordable, accessible health care for every American.”  “Put security back in social security.”  Talking about equal pay for women.

Talking about the real center of the war on terrorism being in Afghanistan, not Iraq.  Talking about Russia challenging the freedom of Georgia.  That he and Obama will hold Russia accountable and help Georgia rebuild.  Well, if you’re opposed to Iraq, why are we going around helping Georgia?

“This administration’s policy ahas been an abysmal failure.”

Talking about Obama wanting to send more troops to Afghanistan while McCain said that we’ve already won there.  Talking about Al Qaeda reorganizing.  “

John McCain was wrong, and Barack Obama was right.”  Talking about talks with Iran.  Saying that even the Bush administration now says we should talk to Iran.  Talking about timelines in Iraq, that McCain said stay indefinitely.  Now the Iraqi government is almost ready to set a date.  Barack Obama was right, and McCain was wrong.

Joe Biden: “I am here is for the [workers].”

“Millions of Americans have been knocked down, and this is the time as Americans together, we get back up, back up together.  Our debt to our parents and our grandparents is too great.  Our obligation to our children is too sacred.  These are extraordinary times.  This is an extraordinary election.  The American people are ready.  I am ready.  Barack is ready.  This is his time.  This is our time.  This is America’s time.  God bless America, and may God protect our troops.  Thank you very much.  Thank you.  Thank you very much.”

WOW!  Another great speech at the DNC!  Although I disagreed with most everything policy-wise, I think it was a great speech that went after John McCain and fired up the Democrats for the election.  Biden is a great speaker, and he did his job of getting everybody really excited for Obama’s speech tomorrow.  Biden brings a lot of enthusiasm to the table as well as experience, and although he may not help Barack a lot in any individual states, it’s speeches like that that make Biden a very likable guy, and a good guy to have on a campaign.

I’ll (hopefully) be doing a live blog of Barack’s acceptance speech tomorrow.

Done Analyzing,

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Analysis of Michelle Obama’s Speech at the DNC

August 25, 2008

I’ll be live blogging this.  I’m watching the video now.

Looking good so far, but not as inspirational as Ted Kennedy’s.  “Who names their kid Barack Obama, so this kid has to be weird” – that’s a great quote (sorry if I screwed it up a bit).

“I didn’t see a ring on her hand.”  And he made his big move at a comapny picnic – buying ice cream, and that’s what put the relationship over the top.  I wish it were that easy for me.

Lost my video feed – hang on.

OK – video’s over, and I’m back up.

Now it’s Michelle’s brother.

Talking about caring for her family.  Talking about working and studying hard.

About Barack: “He won’t back down from any challenge.”

Michelle Obama is walking out on to the stage.  Getting a decent reception, but nothing compared to Ted Kennedy.  Actually, it’s a really calm welcome – she’s not getting a lot of enthusiasm.  Now she’s getting a little more.  And there’s a really energetic woman yelling now.

Talking about her father now – looking down on her now, and watching over her.

“The improbable journey who has led us to this moment.”

Something like “all my stake is in this election.”

Good inspirational story about her father, struggling with MS.

“The American dream endures” – that one got a nice response from the crowd.

And my liberal roommate just asked, “Who’s that old guy they keep showing?”  I said, “Joe Biden?”  “Oh, that’s who that is!”  I got a kick out of it.

Talking about Barack going to neighborhoods in need, and rebuilding communities.  “Ordinary folks doing hte best they could to build a good life.”

“America should be a place where you can make it if you try.”

Talking about military men and women going overseas to defend the country.

She mentioned Hillary Clinton – “who put those 18 million cracks in that glass ceiling.”

She mentioned Joe Biden – he got a LOT more cheers than either Clinton or Michelle did, probably more than them combined.

Something about “a tide of new hope” “and that is why I love this country.”

“I’ve tried to give back to this country that has  given me so much.”

I just got interrupted – now we’re back on welcoming troops with cheers, jobs, benefits, “health care, including mental health care.”

“Barack is running … to end the war in Iraq responsibly.”

Everybody should have “a world-class education, from pre-school, to college.”

“He’ll achieve these goals the same way he always has, by bringing us together, and reminding us how much we share, and how alike we are.”

Something about, “that thread that connects us, our belief in America.”  “One nation, even when we disagree.”

Hope to, mothers of troops, students, people in Chicago….

“Barack will fight for people like them … and bring, finally, the change that we need.”

Now she’s talking about their daughter, “determined to give her … father’s love (what she said didn’t quite make sense to me – I must’ve misheard something).”

“This time, we listened to our hopes, instead of our fears. … we decided to stop doubting and decided to start dreaming.”

“The son of a single mother from Hawaii can go all the way to the White House.”

“Tonight … let’s stand together to elect Barack Obama the President of the United States of America.  Thank you, and God bless America.”

And there’s Biden again – looking VERY happy.

It was a good speech, a little bit slow right before the end, but overall, a GREAT speech.  A good charismatic speech, a little light on substance (not as light as Kennedy’s), but these aren’t meant to be policy speeches.  I’d say it was the perfect mix of substance and “fluff” (which seems like a bad word, but it’s not) for a convention.

And now it’s on to Barack.  And his daughter keeps interrupting him.  No offense, but it’s kinda getting annoying.  But she is kinda cute.  She said, “I think she [mom] did good.”

And that’s pretty much everything for tonight, other than some closing stuff.

So, that’s all for today.  Good night, and good luck!

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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Barack Obama To Pick Joe Biden as His Running Mate

August 23, 2008

After a chartered plane took off from Chicago to Delaware earlier tonight, CNN has confirmed that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, and Senator Hillary Clinton of New York were told that they would not be the VP choice, and that Delaware Senator Joe Biden is the official pick.  The official e-mail/text message announcement is expected in hours.  I may be at the state convention, so I may not be able to break it live.

Update as of 12:58 A.M. EDT: NBC confirms that Democratic party officials have confirmed that Joe Biden is the VP pick.

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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Republican Results from Super Tuesday Primaries and Caucuses

February 15, 2008

OK, now that all of the data is finally in, and I have free time, I can give all the final numbers from Super Tuesday for the Republicans (Democrats will be the next post) (a note, if you’re viewing this on the main page, click this post’s title so that the numbers won’t overlap onto the sidebar text) (also, Tom Tancredo is included in the category of “Other” unless he was the only other, then he is listed as his own name.  The number int the parenthesis indicates the number of other candidates):

Date State Candidate Votes % Delegates RNC Delegates Total Delegates Delegate Count
5-Feb Alabama Huckabee 230,608 40.73% 20 0 20 183
  Romney 103,295 18.24% 0 0 0 293
  Thompson 1,929 0.34% 0 0 0 0
  McCain 210,989 37.26% 16 0 16 695
  Paul 15,454 2.73% 0 0 0 16
  Giuliani 2,224 0.39% 0 0 0 0
  Hunter 399 0.07% 0 0 0 0
  Uncommitted 1,257 0.22% 0 0 0 0
  Tancredo 95 0.02% 0 0 0 0
   
  Alaska Huckabee 2,672 21.89% 6 0 6
  Romney 5,378 44.07% 12 0 12
  McCain 1,894 15.52% 3 0 3
  Paul 2,050 16.80% 5 0 5
  Uncommitted 210 1.72% 0
   
  Arizona Huckabee 40,849 7.66% 0 0 0
  Romney 186,838 35.05% 0 0 0
  Thompson 9,492 1.78% 0 0 0
  McCain 255,197 47.88% 50 0 50
  Paul 22,692 4.26% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 13,658 2.56% 0 0 0
  Hunter 1,082 0.20% 0 0 0
  Keyes 970 0.18% 0 0 0
  Others (16) 2,256 0.42% 0 0 0
   
  Arkansas Huckabee 136,734 60.50% 29 3 32
  Romney 30,574 13.53% 1 0 1
  Thompson 624 0.28% 0 0 0
  McCain 45,709 20.22% 1 0 1
  Paul 10,771 4.77% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 651 0.29% 0 0 0
  Hunter 0.00% 0 0 0
  Uncommitted 946 0.42% 0 0 0
   
  California Huckabee 299,837 11.49% 0 0 0
  Romney 901,922 34.55% 12 0 12
  Thompson 47,302 1.81% 0 0 0
  McCain 1,097,856 42.06% 158 0 158
  Paul 110,536 4.23% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 120,754 4.63% 0 0 0
  Hunter 13,142 0.50% 0 0 0
  Keyes 10,400 0.40% 0 0 0
  Others (3) 8,608 0.33% 0 0 0
   
  Colorado Huckabee 8,960 12.76% 0 0 0
  Romney 42,218 60.11% 43 0 43
  Thompson 63 0.09% 0 0 0
  McCain 12,918 18.39% 0 0 0
  Paul 5,910 8.42% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 58 0.08% 0 0 0
  Hunter 25 0.04% 0 0 0
  Keyes 67 0.10% 0 0 0
  Tancredo 10 0.01% 0 0 0
   
  Connecticut Huckabee 10,600 6.99% 0 0 0
  Romney 49,885 32.91% 0 0 0
  Thompson 538 0.35% 0 0 0
  McCain 78,830 52.01% 27 0 27
  Paul 6,266 4.13% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 2,470 1.63% 0 0 0
  Hunter 136 0.09% 0 0 0
  Keyes 373 0.25% 0 0 0
  Uncommitted 2,462 1.62% 0 0 0
   
  Delaware Huckabee 7,706 15.34% 0 0 0
  Romney 16,344 32.53% 0 0 0
  Thompson 0.00% 0 0 0
  McCain 22,628 45.04% 18 0 18
  Paul 2,131 4.24% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 1,255 2.50% 0 0 0
  Hunter 0.00% 0 0 0
  Tancredo 175 0.35% 0 0 0
   
  Georgia Huckabee 326,874 33.92% 45 0 45
  Romney 290,707 30.17% 0 0 0
  Thompson 3,414 0.35% 0 0 0
  McCain 304,751 31.63% 3 0 3
  Paul 28,096 2.92% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 7,162 0.74% 0 0 0
  Hunter 755 0.08% 0 0 0
  Keyes 1,458 0.15% 0 0 0
  Tancredo 324 0.03% 0 0 0
   
  Illinois Huckabee 147,626 16.54% 0 0 0
  Romney 256,805 28.77% 2 1 3
  Thompson 7,100 0.80% 0 0 0
  McCain 424,071 47.52% 54 0 54
  Paul 45,166 5.06% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 11,341 1.27% 0 0 0
  Hunter 0.00% 0 0 0
  Tancredo 369 0.04% 0 0 0
   
  Massachussetts Huckabee 19,168 3.87% 0 0 0
  Romney 255,248 51.50% 22 0 22
  Thompson 942 0.19% 0 0 0
  McCain 204,027 41.16% 18 0 18
  Paul 13,210 2.67% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 2,643 0.53% 0 0 0
  Hunter 263 0.05% 0 0 0
  Tancredo 155 0.03% 0 0 0
   
  Minnesota Huckabee 12,493 19.88% 0 0 0
**4106 of 4122 precincts** Romney 25,990 41.37% 38 2 40
  Thompson 0.00% 0 0 0
  McCain 13,826 22.01% 0 0 0
  Paul 9,852 15.68% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 0.00% 0 0 0
  Hunter 0.00% 0 0 0
  Keyes 368 0.59% 0 0 0
  Write-In 299 0.48% 0 0 0
   
  Missouri Huckabee 185,598 31.56% 0 0 0
  Romney 172,414 29.32% 0 0 0
  Thompson 3,101 0.53% 0 0 0
  McCain 194,145 33.02% 58 0 58
  Paul 26,428 4.49% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 3,593 0.61% 0 0 0
  Hunter 306 0.05% 0 0 0
  Others (4) 364 0.06% 0 0 0
  Uncommitted 2,083 0.35% 0 0 0
   
  Montana Huckabee 245 15.03% 0 0 0
  Romney 625 38.34% 25 0 25
  Thompson 0.00% 0 0 0
  McCain 358 21.96% 0 0 0
  Paul 400 24.54% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 0.00% 0 0 0
  Hunter 0.00% 0 0 0
  Keyes 2 0.12% 0 0 0
   
  New Jersey Huckabee 45,699 8.18% 0 0 0
  Romney 158,692 28.40% 0 0 0
  Thompson 3,135 0.56% 0 0 0
  McCain 309,842 55.45% 52 0 52
  Paul 26,913 4.82% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 14,446 2.59% 0 0 0
  Hunter 0.00% 0 0 0
   
  New York Huckabee 65,404 10.90% 0 0 0
  Romney 168,275 28.04% 0 0 0
  Thompson 0.00% 0 0 0
  McCain 309,614 51.59% 87 0 87
  Paul 38,787 6.46% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 18,118 3.02% 0 0 0
  Hunter 0.00% 0 0 0
   
  North Dakota Huckabee 1,947 19.90% 5 0 5
  Romney 3,490 35.67% 8 0 8
  Thompson 0.00% 0 0 0
  McCain 2,224 22.73% 5 0 5
  Paul 2,082 21.28% 5 0 5
  Giuliani 0.00% 0 0 0
  Hunter 0.00% 0 0 0
  Keyes 42 0.43% 0 0 0
   
  Oklahoma Huckabee 111,899 33.40% 6 0 6
  Romney 83,030 24.78% 0 0 0
  Thompson 1,924 0.57% 0 0 0
  McCain 122,772 36.64% 32 0 32
  Paul 11,183 3.34% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 2,412 0.72% 0 0 0
  Hunter 317 0.09% 0 0 0
  Keyes 817 0.24% 0 0 0
  Others (3) 700 0.21% 0 0 0
   
  Tennessee Huckabee 190,682 34.48% 23 0 23
  Romney 130,452 23.59% 8 0 8
  Thompson 16,255 2.94% 0 0 0
  McCain 175,855 31.80% 15 0 15
  Paul 30,955 5.60% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 5,146 0.93% 0 0 0
  Hunter 736 0.13% 0 0 0
  Keyes 977 0.18% 0 0 0
  Tancredo 193 0.03% 0 0 0
  Uncommitted 1,828 0.33% 0 0 0
   
  Utah Huckabee 4,061 1.42% 0 0 0
**2240 of 2257 precincts** Romney 255,398 89.61% 36 0 36
  Thompson 575 0.20% 0 0 0
  McCain 15,276 5.36% 0 0 0
  Paul 8,311 2.92% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 930 0.33% 0 0 0
  Hunter 204 0.07% 0 0 0
  Keyes 252 0.09% 0 0 0
   
  West Virginia Huckabee 567 51.55% 18 0 18
**Convention Only** Romney 521 47.36% 0 0 0
  Thompson 0.00% 0 0 0
  McCain 12 1.09% 0 0 0
  Paul 0.00% 0 0 0
  Giuliani 0.00% 0 0 0
    Hunter   0.00% 0 0 0

And here’s a chart of the delegate count:

Republican Delegate Count after Super Tuesday

Done Adding,

Ranting Republican
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Democratic Super Tuesday Results as of 1:00 A.M.

February 6, 2008

Here are the results as of 1:00 A.M.  (Bold results are too close to call):

In Alabama with 99% reporting (my last update tonight):

  1. Obama 300,832 56%
  2. Clinton 223,090 42%
  3. Edwards 7,871 1%
  4. Uncommitted 2,676 1%

Alaska with 60% reporting:

  1. Obama 176 73%
  2. Clinton 66 27%
  3. Uncommitted 1 0%
  4. Edwards 0 0%

Arizona with 68% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Clinton 159,707 51%
  2. Obama 130,396 41%
  3. Edwards 19,446 6%

Arkansas with 83% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Clinton 176,745 69%
  2. Obama 70,025 28%
  3. Edwards 4,691 2%
  4. Uncommitted 2,795 1%

California with 21% reporting:

  1. Clinton 691,474 54%
  2. Obama 425,935 33%
  3. Edwards 122,758 10%

Colorado with 98% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Obama 79,167 67%
  2. Clinton 38,506 32%
  3. Uncommitted 1,253 1%

Connecticut with 99% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Obama 177,546 51%
  2. Clinton 163,383 47%
  3. Edwards 3,364 1%
  4. Uncommitted 2,985 1%

Delaware with 100% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Obama 51,124 53%
  2. Clinton 40,751 43%
  3. Biden 2,863 3%
  4. Edwards 1,241 1%

Georgia with 97% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Obama 660,846 66%
  2. Clinton 314,684 32%
  3. Edwards 17,510 2%

Idaho with 89% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Obama 15,357 81%
  2. Clinton 3,146 17%
  3. Uncommitted 395 2%
  4. Edwards 97 0%

Illinois with 94% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Obama 1,196,993 65%
  2. Clinton 618,763 33%
  3. Edwards 36,206 2%

Kansas with 98% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Obama 26,469 74%
  2. Clinton 9,251 26%
  3. Edwards 53 0%
  4. Uncommitted 8 0%

Massachusetts with 95% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Clinton 665,564 56%
  2. Obama 483,716 41%
  3. Edwards 18,698 2%
  4. No Preference 7,279 1%

Minnesota with 78% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Obama 129,093 67%
  2. Clinton 61,417 32%
  3. Uncommitted 1,179 1%
  4. Edwards 910 0%

Missouri with 99% reporting (the networks haven’t called it yet, but I’m going to call it for Obama):

  1. Obama 402,576 49%
  2. Clinton 394,491 48%
  3. Edwards 16,726 2%
  4. Uncommitted 3,130 1%

New Jersey with 98% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Clinton 591,666 54%
  2. Obama 484,891 44%
  3. Edwards 14,200 1%

New Mexico with 30% reporting:

  1. Clinton 15,205 52%
  2. Obama 12,342 42%
  3. Edwards 1,053 4%
  4. Richardson 410 1%
  5. Uncommitted 178 1%

New York with 99% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Clinton 1,000,915 57%
  2. Obama 696,342 40%
  3. Edwards 19,334 1%

North Dakota with 100% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Obama 11,625 61%
  2. Clinton 6,948 37%
  3. Edwards 283 2%

Oklahoma with 100% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Clinton 228,597 55%
  2. Obama 130,206 31%
  3. Edwards 42,853 10%

Tennessee with 100% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Clinton 331,781 54%
  2. Obama 250,332 41%
  3. Edwards 27,558 4%
  4. Uncommitted 3,111 1%

Utah results with 99% reporting (last update for today):

  1. Obama 69,638 57%
  2. Clinton 48,413 39%
  3. Edwards 3,496 3%

And here’s a map of the current percentages (this is not necessarily a final map):

STD - Perc - 100STD - Key - Perce

And here’s my accuracy map:

STD - Accur - 100STD - Accur - 100STD Key - Accur

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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Republican Super Tuesday Results as of 11:45 P.M.

February 6, 2008

As of 11:45 P.M. EST (I just got home, sorry for the delay).  Bold states are not yet called.

Alabama results with 96% reporting (my final update for the night):

  1. Huckabee 216,206 41%
  2. McCain 199,404 38%
  3. Romney 96,361 18%
  4. Paul 14,530 3%
  5. Giuliani 2,098 0%
  6. Uncommitted 1,220 0%

Arizona with 58% reporting:

  1. McCain 178,090 48%
  2. Romney 124,627 34%
  3. Huckabee 33,031 9%
  4. Paul 15,811 4%
  5. Giuliani 11,822 3%

Arkansas with 66% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Huckabee 78,138 62%
  2. McCain 25,109 20%
  3. Romney 16,015 13%
  4. Paul 5,962 5%
  5. Uncommitted 535 0%
  6. Giuliani 381 0%

California with 12% reporting:

  1. McCain 374,736 44%
  2. Romney 215,931 25%
  3. Huckabee 98,640 12%
  4. Giuliani 85,757 10%
  5. Paul 32,024 4%

Colorado with 21% reporting:

  1. Romney 7,244 54%
  2. McCain 2,924 22%
  3. Huckabee 2,165 16%
  4. Paul 1,033 8%

Connecticut with 92% reporting (my last update of the night):

  1. McCain 74,639 52%
  2. Romney 46,666 33%
  3. Huckabee 9,959 7%
  4. Paul 5,891 4%
  5. Uncommitted 2,283 2%
  6. Giuliani 2,257 2%

Delaware with 100% reporting (my last update of the night):

  1. McCain 22,626 45%
  2. Romney 16,344 33%
  3. Huckabee 7,706 15%
  4. Paul 2,131 4%
  5. Giuliani 1,255 3%

Georgia with 91% reporting (my last update of the night):

  1. Huckabee 313,084 34%
  2. McCain 298,253 32%
  3. Romney 274,014 30%
  4. Paul 26,239 3%
  5. Giuliani 6,600 1%

Illinois with 78% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. McCain 311,406 48%
  2. Romney 184,760 28%
  3. Huckabee 107,668 17%
  4. Paul 33,174 5%
  5. Giuliani 8,584 1%

Massachusetts with 92% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Romney 227,136 51%
  2. McCain 183,496 41%
  3. Huckabee 18,515 4%
  4. Paul 12,150 3%
  5. Giuliani 2,402 1%
  6. No Preference 1,739 0%

Minnesota with 57% reporting:

  1. Romney 17,492 42%
  2. McCain 9,192 22%
  3. Huckabee 8,415 20%
  4. Paul 6,403 15%
  5. Giuliani 0 0%

Missouri with 93% reporting:

  1. McCain 180,239 33%
  2. Huckabee 176,889 32%
  3. Romney 158,899 29%
  4. Paul 24,592 4%
  5. Giuliani 3,408 1%
  6. Uncommitted 1,969 0%

Montana with 100% reporting (my last update of the night):

  1. Romney 625 38%
  2. Paul 400 25%
  3. McCain 358 22%
  4. Huckabee 245 15%

New Jersey with 98% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. McCain 305,933 55%
  2. Romney 156,871 28%
  3. Huckabee 44,938 8%
  4. Paul 26,537 5%
  5. Giuliani 13,930 3%

New York with 99% reporting (my last update for the night):

  1. McCain 309,376 51%
  2. Romney 168,168 28%
  3. Huckabee 65,344 11%
  4. Paul 38,762 7%
  5. Giuliani 18,105 3%

North Dakota with 100% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Romney 3,490 36%
  2. McCain 2,224 23%
  3. Paul 2,082 21%
  4. Huckabee 1,947 20%

Oklahoma with 99% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. McCain 122,702 37%
  2. Huckabee 111,588 33%
  3. Romney 82,839 25%
  4. Paul 11,131 3%
  5. Giuliani 2,417 1%

Tennessee with 91% reporting (my last update for tonight):

  1. Huckabee 175,067 34%
  2. McCain 163,911 32%
  3. Romney 125,124 24%
  4. Paul 29,369 6%
  5. Thompson 15,730 3%
  6. Giuliani 4,955 1% 
  7. Uncommitted 1,762 0%

Utah with 37% reporting:

  1. Romney 92,242 88%
  2. McCain 6,692 6%
  3. Paul 3,107 3%
  4. Huckabee 1,891 2%
  5. Giuliani 541 1%

And here’s a map of the current percentages (note that this does not indicate that a winner has been called):

STR - Perc - 1145STR - Perc Key

And here’s the map of my accuracy:

STR - Accur - 1145STR - Key - Accur

Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican
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