Maine Gay Marriage Proposal Prediction: Voters Will Reject Gay Marriage

Alright, there’s one thing that I left off of my predictions from earlier, when I did the New Jersey/Virginia Gubernatorial Elections and the New York 23rd Senate election.  The other major election tomorrow (other than NYC Mayor, where Bloomberg will easily win), is Maine Question 1:

Question 1: People’s Veto

An Act To End Discrimination in Civil Marriage and Affirm Religious Freedom

“Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?”

And here’s a link to the law being voted on, courtesy of the Maine Secretary of State: http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/samesexmarriage.pdf.

Here’s my prediction:

Question 1: People’s Veto:

1. Yes – 50.8%
2. No – 49.2%

Now – here’s my reasoning: The polls have had question 1 failing most of the time; however, Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm has shown it with a 4% lead as of the last poll (and that was the latest poll to come out).  Other polls have shown the margin narrowing, so with the PPP poll having the Yes’s taking over the No’s, I think the question will pass.

Also, there has never been a public vote that has gone in favor of gay marriage.  I think Maine will keep this trend up, and I think the voters will overturn what the legislature did; however, the vote will be close – that’s for sure.

Tomorrow should be an all around interesting day.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican

Tags: 2009 Election, Election, Gay, gay marriage, General Election, Homosexual, Maine, People's Veto, Politics, Public Policy Polling, Question 1, Secretary of State