Prediction for the Hawaii Republican Caucus (Ron Paul Wins)

By inkslwc

OK, here it is, my prediction for the Hawaii caucus (20 delegates)…

Paul 55%
Romney 35%
McCain 10%
Giuliani and Huckabee will come in insignificantly – maybe 1 or 2%, but I doubt they’ll get any at all.

I was going to call it for Romney at 55%, then Paul at 35%, but then I looked at the amount of money raised – Paul raised the most and Hawaii’s been overlooked by ALL of the candidates. It has a large Mormon population, but I don’t think that will overcome the dedication of Paul’s supporters. Here’s the calendar for the caucuses (they’re kinda weird – they’re spread out over 12 days):

DATE	DAY	TIME	HOUSE DISTRICT
Jan. 25	Friday	5:30 pm	10

Jan. 26	Saturday	9:00 am	24-25-26-27
		10:00 am	1-2-3-4
		10:00 am	8-9
		10:00 am	44-45
		2:00 pm	41
		3:00 pm	42-43

Jan. 29	Tuesday	6:30 pm	29-30
		7:00 pm	21-22-23-28
		7:00 pm	31-32-33

Jan. 30	Wednesday	5:00 pm	11
		6:00 pm	47-48-49-50-51
		6:30 pm	14-15
		7:00 pm	36-37-38-39

Jan. 31	Thursday	6:30 pm	16


Feb. 2	Saturday	8:30 am	17-18
		8:30 am	46
		10:00 am	6-7
		12:30 pm	12-13
		3:00 pm	5
		7:00 pm	34-35-40

Feb. 5	Tuesday	7:00 pm	19-20

So we SHOULD not have any results in until the 5th, if all the media outlets keep to the “No releasing results before all the precincts are done!” “rule” – but who knows.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
:: :: :: :: :: ::