Happy New Year!

I’d like to wish all of my readers a happy and safe beginning of 2008!  Please, don’t drink and drive, and don’t shoot any guns off (and if you do – I hope you’re prosecuted!!!).

Done Celebrating,

Ranting Republican

2008 Election: Presidential General Election

PART III: My 2008 Presidential General Election Prediction (from this site: http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1919) (note that the colors are opposite of what the media uses):

Edwards/??? (252), Romney/Huckabee (286).

At this point, I have a VERY close race in mind.  In fact, it’s the exact same amount of EVs as 2004.  If Edwards can win North Carolina, it’s by a margin of  only 3 votes that Romney wins.  I don’t anticipate a major 3rd party candidate, but if Giuliani gets the nomination, a religious right candidate might rise up and this prediction would be very different.  As well, I doubt that Ron Paul will run as a Libertarian (or other party for that matter), but a candidacy by him would change the whole outcome.

Let’s highlight some states:

New Hampshire and Iowas barely go to Romney.  Michigan, due to its continued economic depression will be tired of the Democrats.  In addition, Romney’s added name recognition will boost him into the winning spot here.  Missouri goes to Edwards because they’ll be really opposed to Romney’s Mormonism.  The only reason that Arkansas doesn’t follow suit is because of Huckabee as the VP candidate, who helps  Romney maintain the other deep Southern states.  New Mexico follows its trend toward the Democrats.  Wisconsin and Minnesota stay on the Democratic side and Florida stays on the Republican side.  Ohio goes Republican and Pennsylvania Democratic.

Tomorrow I will have my Republican endorsement!

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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2008 Election: Democratic Primary Prediction

PART II: My 2008 Democratic Primary (and Caucus) Prediction (from this site: http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008D/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=4116):

Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Richardson.  “(C)” indicates a caucus; in the caucuses, a candidate must receive 15% support, or those voters must relocate to another candidate.

As I said for the Republicans (http://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2007/12/29/2008-election-republican-primary-prediction/), if you visit the U.S. Election Atlas and see my prediction history, ignore the first few where I had Clinton leading – I just had to have a little time to figure out which states I wanted to give to Edwards, and my default was to give them to Clinton).  So, here we go…

1. Iowa (C) – Edwards gets around 30% initially, but after the voters who voted for candidates under 15% have to respread their votes, he goes up to around 42%.
2. Edwards goes on to win New Hampshire with around 40%.
3. Michigan goes to Clinton with around 70% and 25% uncommitted or write-ins to Edwards or Obama, since most don’t know what that means (she’s the only major candidate on the ballot).
4. Nevada (C) goes to Edwards in a similar fashion like Iowa.
5. South Carolina gives Obama his first win around 40%.
6. Florida, due to Edwards’ momentum barely goes to him with 30%.
7. SUPER TUESDAY!!!!!!!!!  (Gravel might have possibly dropped out – Biden, Dodd and Richardson will hold on trying to last until their home states vote).  Alabama barely goes to Clinton with around 30%.  Alaska (C) and Arizona go to Edwards.  Arkansas, Connecticut, and Delaware go to Clinton with 50%, 40%, and 30% respectively.  Georgia, California and Colorado (C) goe to Edwards, California being a big surprise and boost to his campaign.  Idaho (C) and Illinois both go to Obama with 40%.  Kansas goes to Edwards with 40%.  Massachusetts and Minnesota (C) go to Clinton.  Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah all go to Edwards with 30%.  New Jersey, New York, and North Dakota (C) all show strong support around 50% for Clinton (ND being slightly under 50%).  New Mexico (C) goes to Richardson with 40%, in a similar fashion to how Edwards won Utah.  Richardson, Biden, and Dodd (if he hadn’t already dropped out) drop out.  Kucinich will stay in it until the end.
8. Louisiana and Nebraska (C) go to Edwards, while Washington (C) goes to Clinton by a very strong margin.
9. Maine (C) shows around 40% for Clinton.
10. D.C. (C) goes to Obama, due to the African American population, while Maryland goes to Clinton and Virginia to Edwards, all with very high support.
11. Hawaii (C) and Wisconsin both go to Edwards by fairly close margins.
12. Ohio goes to Clinton, while Rhode Island goes to Obama.  Texas and Vermont go to Edwards.
13. Wyoming (C) goes to Clinton with around  35%.
14. Mississippi barely goes to Edwards with around 33%.
15. Pennsylvania goes to Clinton with around 35%.
16. In May, Indiana and Kentucky go to Clinton, while North Carolina, West Virginia, and Oregon all go to Edwards, all near 30%.
17. In June, Montana and South Dakota go to Clinton, while Puerto Rico (C) winds down the nomination process with a win for Edwards.

Tomorrow (if I have time) will be the general election prediction.

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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2008 Election: Republican Primary Prediction

OK, well I wanted to do a 2008 Election series sometime soon before Iowa, and it’s a slow news day (kinda – I used up the Bhutto story early this morning), so I guess now is a good time.  Today is…

PART I: My 2008 Republican Primary (and Caucus) Prediction (from this site: http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=151):

Giuliani, McCain, Romney, Thompson, Huckabee, Paul.

“(C)” indicates a caucus.

1. So, here’s what happens, Romney goes into Iowa (C) with Huckabee still strong, but losing steam – McCain gains a little, and Ron Paul pulls out a surprise and lands 2^nd or 3^rd place.
2. New Hampshire – Romney pulls off a steady 40% lead; McCain gets a decent 2nd.  (Even if McCain wins here, I think he’s still done, since he even won it in 2000).
3. Michigan – Romney pulls off a nice 40% win in Michigan, catupulting him forward
4. Nevada (C) – Romney pulls off one of his strongest wins at 50%.  South Carolina – Huckabee pulls off a decent lead despite Romney’s momentum – since SC doesn’t always follow the preceding states.
5. Wyoming (C), Hawaii (C), Florida, and Maine (C) - Romney sweeps all of them.
6. SUPER TUESDAY!!!!!!!  Here’s where the fun begins…Thompson wins Alabama by a fair margin.  Alaska (C) goes to Ron Paul, which wins him a lot of media coverage and makes himat least a contender in several other states (screwing with strategies of candidates, but not winning more than Montana).  Arizona goes to McCain by a surprisingly low margin, due to Ron Paul’s recent win.  Duncan Hunter would’ve dropped out by this point, which some people will give more support to Romney.  Huckabee wins his second state, his home state of Arkansas with about 50% of the votes.  Duncan Hunter’s endorsement of Romney gives Romney a fair win of about 35% in California.  Colorado (C) goes to Romney with above 40%.  Connecticut goes to Giuliani, giving him his first win, with voters giving him support in the high 30%’s.  Delaware (C) follows similarly.  Georgia goes to Huckabee around 35%.  Illinois goes to Giuliani with about 35%.  Massachusetts goes to Romney with around 50% and Minnesota (C) around  35%.  Missouri then goes to Huckabee with 40%, while Montana adds another tally to Ron Paul’s column with barely 30%, giving him his second and final win.  New Jersey and New York both go to Giuliani with around 50%.  North Dakota (C) goes to Romney with about 40% while Oklahoma goes to him with about 35%.  Tennessee goes to Thompson with about 40%.  Utah (C) goes to Romney with 60%.  After Super Tuesday, Thompson drops out due to his loss of Georgia and Missouri, and whether or not he endorses Huckabee, that’s where many of his supporters goe.  This leaves Giuliani, McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Paul, and Keyes, all of whom will remain in the race until the end.
7. Kansas (C) goes to Romney with 40% while Louisiana goes to Huckabee with around 50%.
8. D.C. (C), Maryland, and Viriginia all go to Giuliani with 50%, 40%, and 30% respectively.
9. Washington (C) goes to Romney with 40%, as does Wisconsin by 30% which is a big blow to Giuliani.
10. Puerto Rico goes to Romney.
11. Ohio goes to Romney with 40% and Romney beats out McCain in Vermont, finishing off McCain essentially, but he sticks in it and wins a decent amount of delegates from the his 2nd place winnings.  Rhode Island goes to Giuliani with 35% and Texas to Huckabee with 40%.
12. Mississippi goes to Huckabee with 40%.
13. Romney wins Pennsylvania in April with 40%.
14. In May, Indiania, North Carolina, Oregon, and Idaho all go to Romney.  West Virginia is taken by Giuliani, and Huckabee gets Kentucky.
15. Romney sweeps the month of June winning New Mexico, South Dakota, and Nebraska.

So, check out my prediction here: http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=151 (ignore the first 4 or 5 predictions somewhat – that was me fiddling with what states to take away from Giualiani, which I just awarded all the states that I didn’t know which way they’d go, but I’ve always been confident that Romney will win the nomination).  And here’s my plug for the – it’s a great site, with a great forum and predictions.

Tomorrow will be the Democratic Nomination, then my endorsement (official – I’ve hinted at it a few times).

Done Predicting,

Ranting Republican
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Pakistan’s opposition leader Benazir Bhutto Killed in Attack

On Thursday, the Pakistani opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto was killed by a gunman in Rawalpindi.  The gunman shot her in the spinal cord and chest (the cause of death was damage to the spinal cord).  The gunman then blew himself up, and 20 others were killed in all (for the full story, read here: http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2007-12-27-bhutto-pakistan_N.htm).

Bhutto was the head of the party opposing Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, and her party was expected to win the election which is just days away.  Musharraf released a statement saying, “This is the work of those terrorists with whom we are engaged in war.  I have been saying that the nation faces the greatest threats from these terrorists.  I express my resolve that — and I also seek solidarity from the nation and cooperation and help — we will not rest until we eliminate these terrorists and root them out.”

The Pakistani opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif, called for the immediate resignation of Musharaff said that he would boycott January 8^th parliamentary elections.

As a result of the attack, violence has broken out among Pakistan, with several more deaths.

World  leaders condemned the attacks and urged Pakistan to continue its path toward democracy.  I join them and do the same.

I hope that a strong leader will take Bhutto’s place, and I hope that Musharraf will not capitalize upon this attack in any attempt to maintain power.  Pakistan MUST continue toward democracy.  These terrorists MUST be caught and punished.  Democracy and order MUST prevail!

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican

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Michigan One of Two States With a Shrinking Population

Here’s some data released today from the U.S. Census Bureau (and the Wall Street Journal: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-censussort122007-sort.html):

State	2007 Population	2006 population	Net change	Percentage change  ↑
Nevada	2,565,382	2,492,427	72,955	2.9
Arizona	6,338,755	6,165,689	173,066	2.8
Utah	2,645,330	2,579,535	65,795	2.6
Idaho	1,499,402	1,463,878	35,524	2.4
North Carolina	9,061,032	8,869,442	191,590	2.2
Georgia	9,544,750	9,342,080	202,670	2.2
Texas	23,904,380	23,407,629	496,751	2.1
Wyoming	522,830	512,757	10,073	2.0
Colorado	4,861,515	4,766,248	95,267	2.0
South Carolina	4,407,709	4,330,108	77,601	1.8
Washington	6,468,424	6,374,910	93,514	1.5
Oregon	3,747,455	3,691,084	56,371	1.5
New Mexico	1,969,915	1,942,302	27,613	1.4
Delaware	864,764	852,747	12,017	1.4
Tennessee	6,156,719	6,074,913	81,806	1.3
Montana	957,861	946,795	11,066	1.2
Louisiana	4,293,204	4,243,288	49,916	1.2
Oklahoma	3,617,316	3,577,536	39,780	1.1
Florida	18,251,243	18,057,508	193,735	1.1
South Dakota	796,214	788,467	7,747	1.0
United States	301,621,157	298,754,819	2,866,338	1.0
Virginia	7,712,091	7,640,249	71,842	0.9
Kentucky	4,241,474	4,204,444	37,030	0.9
Arkansas	2,834,797	2,809,111	25,686	0.9
Alaska	683,478	677,450	6,028	0.9
Minnesota	5,197,621	5,154,586	43,035	0.8
California	36,553,215	36,249,872	303,343	0.8
Alabama	4,627,851	4,590,240	37,611	0.8
Missouri	5,878,415	5,837,639	40,776	0.7
Mississippi	2,918,785	2,899,112	19,673	0.7
Kansas	2,775,997	2,755,817	20,180	0.7
Indiana	6,345,289	6,302,646	42,643	0.7
Nebraska	1,774,571	1,763,765	10,806	0.6
Illinois	12,852,548	12,777,042	75,506	0.6
Wisconsin	5,601,640	5,572,660	28,980	0.5
Iowa	2,988,046	2,972,566	15,480	0.5
District of Columbia	588,292	585,459	2,833	0.5
Puerto Rico	3,941,459	3,925,971	15,488	0.4
North Dakota	639,715	637,460	2,255	0.4
Hawaii	1,283,388	1,278,635	4,753	0.4
New Hampshire	1,315,828	1,311,821	4,007	0.3
Maryland	5,618,344	5,602,017	16,327	0.3
West Virginia	1,812,035	1,808,699	3,336	0.2
Pennsylvania	12,432,792	12,402,817	29,975	0.2
New Jersey	8,685,920	8,666,075	19,845	0.2
Massachusetts	6,449,755	6,434,389	15,366	0.2
Maine	1,317,207	1,314,910	2,297	0.2
Connecticut	3,502,309	3,495,753	6,556	0.2
Vermont	621,254	620,778	476	0.1
New York	19,297,729	19,281,988	15,741	0.1
Ohio	11,466,917	11,463,513	3,404	0.0
Michigan	10,071,822	10,102,322	-30,500	-0.3
Rhode Island	1,057,832	1,061,641	-3,809	-0.4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

OK, so at least Michigan isn’t LAST – sorry, Rhode Island!  Notice the very low amounts of population increase in the Midwest (and even lower for Michigan).  On the other hand notice that the south and Pacific areas are increasing, mostly due to immigration (illegal through Arizona and New Mexico and more legal through California).  Let’s pull Michigan out of this crap-hole!

Oh – just to let everbody know, my cousin has the flu, so I won’t be  going to Wisconsin today – another Christmas present to yall – more blog posts from me! 

Done Analyzing,

Republican Ranting
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Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas everybody! I wish all of you, Republican, Democrat, Libertarian, Green, Constitution, Communist, Lutheran, Catholic, Presbyterian, etc… a very merry and SAFE Christmas.  I leave for Wisconsin on Thursday (I was planning on leaving Wednesday, but I’ll be with you all another day – that’s my gift to you! :P  While in Wisconsin I may not have internet access).

Again – Merry Christmas,

Done Christmasing,

Ranting Republican

Man Videotapes 3-Year-Old Boy Smoking a Joint

This just made me angry – and this story comes to us from another local city, River Rouge, Michigan (practically as bad as Detroit – just a little better).  Felipe Francisco Garcia, an 18-year-old man from River Rouge has been charged with second-degree child abuse for helping the 3-year-old boy he was babysitting smoke a “marijuana[-type] cigarette” and videotape the incident.

Wayne County Prosecutor Kym Worthy (who I just realized that she’s the daughter of my father’s friend) gave a statement on Thursday, saying, “Just when you think you’ve seen all kinds of child abuse, this comes along.  The evidence shows  that the  defendant thought it was cute to have a 3-year-old baby smoking a marijuana cigar or blunt.”

The tape was found during a separate investigation involving Garcia about 3 weeks ago.  Police plan on testing the boy for marijuana, which could linger in his system for up to a month, since the substance was never retrieved and thus the cigarette was not officially found to have had marijuana in it.

Garcia is apparently a friend of the child’s mother, and the child continues to live with his mother.

Garcia faces up to (only) 4 years in prison and was (and still may be?) held on $10,000 bond.  He was arraigned on Thursday in the 26-1st District Court in River Rouge.

Let’s put this guy away for all 4 years + whatever else he was being investigated for!

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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Lincoln Park Sued by Hustler Over Ordinance

In local news, my home city of Lincoln Park, Michigan is being sued by Bradley Shafer, a Lansing attorney who specializes in adult entertainment cases, who is representing Park Theater and a proposed Larry Fltnt Hustler Club.  Shafer is quoted as saying, “They have enacted a number of unconstitutional laws.  And in regards to the unconstitutional laws, they are indicating that they are going to apply them to us, yet they have never enforced them on anyone else.”

The suit claims that “these plaintiffs are being deprived of their fundamental rights under the First and Fourteenth amendments to engage in speech and expression-related activities within Lincoln Park and in particular upon the Park Theater premises and the Hustler premises….  The public’s right to view and have access to certain entertainment protected by the First and Fourteenth amendments to the United States Constitution is being precluded.” (http://thenewsherald.com/stories/121907/loc_20071219002.shtml).

Now – to address Shafer’s quote about “never enforc[ing] them [the other laws] on anyone else” – that’s because ALL of the other locations were grandfathered in and the law can’t be enforced on them.  Sorry Mr. Shafer, but if you spent more time actually in Lincoln Park instead of Lansing, you’d know that.

Second – the right to build wherever you want is NOT protected in the Constitution.  There are areas where they are allowed to build, but the area is not big enough for what they want.  Zoning laws are zoning laws.  You can’t put these types of businesses in the middle of a residential area, just like I couldn’t put a 30-story office building or a butter toffee peanut factory (NutBar brand is awesome – available at Meijer – I highly recommend them – but they are slightly addicting).  I’m sorry, but a location was put up for you to build – so take it or leave it.

Now, if I have any Lincoln Park readers: Please go to city council meetings and especially pressure Councilman Michael Myers.  He is opposed to Walmart coming in, so let’s make sure he’s opposed to this, since these places will bring in more crime, which is what Mr. Myers was worried about with Walmart.  Luckily, we have Valerie Brady back on the Council, and she’s had experience opposing “gentlemen’s” clubs before.

Hopefully Lincoln Park will succeed like Detroit did, but we won’t have as great of lawyers I’m guessing, so let’s just hope that U.S. District Judge Nancy Edmunds doesn’t give in to Shafer’s wanted injunction that would set asid the city’s ordinances.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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Violence Erupts in New Orleans Over Housing

I first brought you the story of the demolition of low-income housing in New Orleans in this post: http://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2007/12/14/low-income-housing-in-new-orleans-to-be-demolished/.  Now I come to you with an update (quotes and pictures from CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/12/20/neworleans.protests/)…

On Thursday, the City Council with Mayor Ray Nagin’s strong commendation (a smart move for once on his party) unanimously decided to demolish the old and dangerously damaged low-income housing that was damaged by Hurricane Katrina.  Many people opposed the decision because they think that the city will not replace it with as affordable housing, essentially pushing the poor people out (so they’d be pushing poor people out of a moldy and hazardous building onto the streets – ok, I don’t see much difference here).

Anyway, around 11:00 A.M., several protesters were escorted out of the City Council’s chambers after some fights broke out (wait, is this New Orleans or Detroit?  Oh – sorry – in Detroit it’s the members of the council who punch each other, not the audience).  A half hour later, a mob formed and wanted to be let in to the Council building, even though the chamber’s maximum capacity of 278 had been reached.

Superintendent of the N.O.P.D. Warren J. Riley said, “They were pulling the gate open, trying to come in.  They were allowed to stand there and protest peacefully.  Then they began to try and tear the gate down.  They punched a couple of civil sheriffs in the face.  They broke the gate open.  So, some of those officers did use Mace to defend themselves and also to regain control of the gate and close the gate.  It was clear that there were people there that had one goal in mind and that was to be disruptive, be disobedient and in some cases to actually start a physical confrontation.”

On the other hand, Peter O’Connell, a student from New Orleans said, “We were just trying to gain access to the City Council meeting, which we all feel and know that we have a right to attend.  We were denied access and, in the process, brutalized by the police,” after being pepper sprayed and nearly TASERed.  Sure you have the right to attend, if you’re the first 278 people there.  But you don’t have a right to break down a gate.  And don’t they broadcast these things on TV?

So – it’s obvious that these people in New Orleans are nothing but trouble makers and I honestly don’t see why the City Council would even care about giving them housing when they aren’t even civilized enough to not tear down a gate and start a fight in a City Council meeting.

Again – I say that the damaged parts of New Orleans need to be demolished and not rebuilt – it’s another disaster waiting to happen.  But if they do rebuild, they should allow for the same arrangements as was there before – just better kept – but if the people of New Orleans continue to act like this – I wouldn’t give them anything other than what the Constitution (state and federal) tells me I HAVE to give them.

Done Ranting,

Ranting Republican
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